There are many different factors that go into this series.
Starting Pitching:
The Phillies have Cole Hamels at the top and he will need to pitch on short rest twice (Games 1, 4, 7) for the Phillies to have a chance. Bretty Myers is good but is inconsistent. The Rays have Jamie Shields, Kazmir and Garza to counter. Kazmir doesn't go deep into games but will neutralize the lefties of the Phillies.
Edge: RAYS
Hitting:
Rollins, Utley and Howard are some of the most dangerous hitters in the game. Rollins sets the table and the other guys drive him in. If BJ Upton and Longoria stay hot they can carry the Rays offensively.
Edge: PHILLIES
Bullpen:
Brad Lidge has not blown a save in a long time and the Rays don't have a closer. Before Game 5 of the ALCS the Rays bullpen was fantastic. After that they have been a ticking time bomb waiting to explode. I don't know who will close for them (should be David Price) and getting to the closer will be difficult. One advantage they do have (especially in NL parks) is multiple left handers to match up with lefties.
Edge: PHILLIES
Home field advantage: Obviously goes to the Rays who have been fantastic at home all year. I don't think the DH factor will make much of a difference. It's not like you have to play David Ortiz at first base.
X-Factors:
Rays: (a) lefty relievers to face the Phillies lefties.
(b) David Price. I've been raving about this guy for the last 12 hours and I'll continue to do so until he proves otherwise. If he can be effective as a closer or give an inning+ out of the pen he poses a threat to the Phillies. His control looked good last night, he was calm in a tremendously pressurized situation, and he is another lefty that can face Utley and Howard.
Phillies: Long layoff. We've seen this before. Last year the Rockies and the year before that the Tigers had long layoffs before the World Series began. Each of those teams came out flat and lost any chance of winning the first game (maybe first 2 games). We'll see how this affects the Phillies bats.
3 Question to be answered:
1. Can the Rays bullpen get the job done?
2. Will the long layoff affect the Phillies?
3. Can Upton and Longoria out-slug Utley and Howard?
Prediction:
To those questions I say yes, no, and yes.
I expect these games to be very well played. Both teams play good defense, especially in the outfield, and have very good pitching. As most games do, this series will come down to pitching. I think the Rays have better starting pitching, home field advantage and are riding a magical season.
Furthermore, look at the 2 leagues. The Rays have played FAR SUPERIOR competition both in the division, league and playoffs. They outlasted the Yankees and Red Sox for the division. They overcame a major loss in Game 5. They were mentally tested in Game 7. The Phillies are good but the Rays are better.
RAYS IN 6
Monday, October 20, 2008
The Rays are in the World Series???
I admit I am shocked. Down 7-0 in game 5, the Red Sox pulled off one of the most improbable comebacks in history. 7th inning, 2 outs, a couple of "meaningless" singles, and then an Ortiz 3-run HR. At that point I said it was over.....not just the game, but the season. I've seen this before. I big Ortiz HR or a couple of "meaningless" hits catapulting a desperate team to a WS victory. I said the Red Sox would not lose a game the rest of the postseason. How do you recover from being on the cusp of the World Series and then completely choking? I didn't think they could do it.
Before Game 5 one might say that the Red Sox would win that game, but then come back to Tampa and lose in Game 6. If they were able to force a 7th game they would be in total control because the Rays are too young to respond to that type of game. That script was playing out pretty until the middle innings last night. First of all, Matt Garza was GREAT! He pitched late into the game, gave up only a couple of hits and shut down the Red Sox offense.
As the 8th inning began to unfold - signs for the Sox began to emerge. The great Yankees teams had it too. Things start to go your way, the other team feels the pressure and before you know it, the better team takes the lead. The Rays made an error on the lead off hitter and had to go to the pen. The Red Sox got another hit to make it first and 2nd and now it was inevitable. Who was going to get the big hit? Coming up were Pedroia (the league MVP), Ortiz, Youkilis and JD Drew. The bases were loaded and Drew was up - the same guy who hit what Bill Simmons calls the "$14 Million Grand Slam." The same guy who hit a 2-run HR as well as the game winning double in Game 5.
The Rays seemed to have no answer. But then the September call-up, future ace and Cy Young award winner David Price announced his presence on the major league scene. Price is a hard throwing left hander who throws 95 and has a great slider (Randy Johnson???) and apparently is a mentally tough pitcher. How many pitchers, let alone rookies, would be as calm as he was and be able to get the 4 biggest outs in team history? Not many. Price was sensational. He got Drew to strike out and breezed through the 9th after only yielding a walk.
Preview of World Series - next....
Before Game 5 one might say that the Red Sox would win that game, but then come back to Tampa and lose in Game 6. If they were able to force a 7th game they would be in total control because the Rays are too young to respond to that type of game. That script was playing out pretty until the middle innings last night. First of all, Matt Garza was GREAT! He pitched late into the game, gave up only a couple of hits and shut down the Red Sox offense.
As the 8th inning began to unfold - signs for the Sox began to emerge. The great Yankees teams had it too. Things start to go your way, the other team feels the pressure and before you know it, the better team takes the lead. The Rays made an error on the lead off hitter and had to go to the pen. The Red Sox got another hit to make it first and 2nd and now it was inevitable. Who was going to get the big hit? Coming up were Pedroia (the league MVP), Ortiz, Youkilis and JD Drew. The bases were loaded and Drew was up - the same guy who hit what Bill Simmons calls the "$14 Million Grand Slam." The same guy who hit a 2-run HR as well as the game winning double in Game 5.
The Rays seemed to have no answer. But then the September call-up, future ace and Cy Young award winner David Price announced his presence on the major league scene. Price is a hard throwing left hander who throws 95 and has a great slider (Randy Johnson???) and apparently is a mentally tough pitcher. How many pitchers, let alone rookies, would be as calm as he was and be able to get the 4 biggest outs in team history? Not many. Price was sensational. He got Drew to strike out and breezed through the 9th after only yielding a walk.
Preview of World Series - next....
Week 7 Recap
Who is good this year? Which quarterbacks are really good? Which are Hall of Famers? These were some of the questions I heard yesterday as I'm watching some really crappy games.
It's hard to say it but the league is really bad. For the most part, the teams are mediocre or flat out horrible. There are two great quarterbacks in the league - 1 is out for the year and 1 is coming off two knee surgeries. Favre is a HOFer but his prime has passed (see Jets loss at Raiders). If I had to pick right now, I guess I would say Pittsburgh is the best team in the league. They won at Jacksonville and home against Philly. They have played solid defense and Roethlisberger has played very well. All this without a running back (Moore dominating the Bengals doesn't count).
Let's see what we learned yesterday:
First and foremost, Dallas is in BIG trouble. Romo is out and I thought Brad Johnson would at least be serviceable. He was anything but. Even with T.O., Barber, Witten and Roy Williams they could not muster any offense against the lowly Rams. More importantly, their defense absolutely stinks. They have no corner backs (injured or suspended), they have no safety (injured for the year) and yet they traded future draft picks for a receiver??? I don't get it.
Don't even think about calling the Giants the best team. They beat the Redskins in a game you can toss out the window. They also beat the Rams, Bengals (OT), Seahawks (who have no team right now) and the 49ers (who love giving the ball away - thanks JTO). This are not exactly your top of the line competition. The Giants got BLOWN OUT against the Browns! That's sad. What's worse is that Eli has not looked good at all this year. The Giants have a good defense and a solid running game. After that - not good.
How many inconsistent teams do we have?
Chargers, Packers, Saints, Jets (among others). These teams all have playoff potential but seem not to show up in some games. Very Strange.
Coming back to earth?
Titans' next 5 games: Colts, Packers, @ Bears, @ Jags, Jets. We'll know if they are for real after this stretch. If they can go 3-2 I'll buy them.
Set up for a long run:
Buffalo - After a 41-17 drubbing in Arizona and the bye, the Bills are set up nicely. Their schedule: @ Miami, Jets, @ NE, Cleveland, @ KC, 49ers, Miami. 4-3 in these games will put them at 9-4 and in good position to win the division.
*MNF - Can Moose Cassel can move the ball against a bad Denver defense? I expect a solid Denver offense to move the ball well against an aging Patriots defense. I'll take Denver 27 - Pats 23.
It's hard to say it but the league is really bad. For the most part, the teams are mediocre or flat out horrible. There are two great quarterbacks in the league - 1 is out for the year and 1 is coming off two knee surgeries. Favre is a HOFer but his prime has passed (see Jets loss at Raiders). If I had to pick right now, I guess I would say Pittsburgh is the best team in the league. They won at Jacksonville and home against Philly. They have played solid defense and Roethlisberger has played very well. All this without a running back (Moore dominating the Bengals doesn't count).
Let's see what we learned yesterday:
First and foremost, Dallas is in BIG trouble. Romo is out and I thought Brad Johnson would at least be serviceable. He was anything but. Even with T.O., Barber, Witten and Roy Williams they could not muster any offense against the lowly Rams. More importantly, their defense absolutely stinks. They have no corner backs (injured or suspended), they have no safety (injured for the year) and yet they traded future draft picks for a receiver??? I don't get it.
Don't even think about calling the Giants the best team. They beat the Redskins in a game you can toss out the window. They also beat the Rams, Bengals (OT), Seahawks (who have no team right now) and the 49ers (who love giving the ball away - thanks JTO). This are not exactly your top of the line competition. The Giants got BLOWN OUT against the Browns! That's sad. What's worse is that Eli has not looked good at all this year. The Giants have a good defense and a solid running game. After that - not good.
How many inconsistent teams do we have?
Chargers, Packers, Saints, Jets (among others). These teams all have playoff potential but seem not to show up in some games. Very Strange.
Coming back to earth?
Titans' next 5 games: Colts, Packers, @ Bears, @ Jags, Jets. We'll know if they are for real after this stretch. If they can go 3-2 I'll buy them.
Set up for a long run:
Buffalo - After a 41-17 drubbing in Arizona and the bye, the Bills are set up nicely. Their schedule: @ Miami, Jets, @ NE, Cleveland, @ KC, 49ers, Miami. 4-3 in these games will put them at 9-4 and in good position to win the division.
*MNF - Can Moose Cassel can move the ball against a bad Denver defense? I expect a solid Denver offense to move the ball well against an aging Patriots defense. I'll take Denver 27 - Pats 23.
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