NFL Week 16

Playoff Picture: (If the season ended today: )

NFC
1. Cowboys (12-2, home-field adv.)
2. Packers (12-2, first-round bye)
3. Seahawks (9-5)
4. Buccaneers (9-5)
5. Giants (9-5)
6. Vikings (8-6)

Wild Card Weekend
Vikings at Seahawks
Giants at Buccaneers

AFC
1. Patriots (14-0, home-field adv.)
2. Colts (12-2, first-round bye)
3. Chargers (9-5)
4. Steelers (10-5)
5. Jaguars (10-4)
6. Browns (9-5)

Wild Card Weekend
Browns at Chargers
Jaguars at Steelers

Scenarios:
AFC
Pittsburgh: Can clinch AFC North title with Cleveland loss.
Pittsburgh: Can clinch playoff berth with Tennessee loss or tie.
Cleveland: Can clinch playoff berth with win or Tennessee loss or Cleveland tie and Tennessee tie.
Jacksonville: Can clinch playoff berth with win or tie or Tennessee loss or tie or Cleveland loss.

NFC
Dallas: Can clinch homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs with win and Green Bay loss.
New York Giants: Can clinch playoff berth with win or tie or Washington loss or tie or New Orleans loss or tie.
Minnesota: Can clinch playoff berth with win and New Orleans loss or tie.
Eliminated in AFC: Miami, N.Y. Jets, Kansas City, Oakland, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Houston, Buffalo, Denver. Eliminated in NFC: San Francisco, St. Louis, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Arizona, Chicago and Detroit.

The Picks:
Rams +7.5 X
Panthers +10.5
*Jaguars -13
Colts -7
Saints -3
Bills +3
*Packers -8.5
*Browns -3
*Cardinals -10
Bucs -7
*Jets +8.5
Patriots -22
Seattle (off)
Vikings -6.5
Chargers -8.5

*Best Bets

Panthers +10.5 vs. Cowboys: I would take Dallas in this game but they have disappointed in recent weeks when favored by double digits. I am wary of Tony Romo’s bad thumb and his new girlfriend. Carolina played a strong game defensively last week against Seattle and I expect them to give a strong effort in this game. Steve Smith might also be good for a long TD reception so I will take the points for Carolina at home.

Jaguars -13 vs. Raiders: The Jaguars have been playing excellent football as they come off a great road win in Pittsburgh. They are headed to the playoffs as the 5^th seed and at if Pittsburgh and San Diego win out, they will go back to Pittsburgh in two weeks. The Pro Bowl rosters were announced this week and the Jaguars have ZERO representatives. Fred Taylor deserved to go over Willie Parker (who is now out for the season which means the Steelers have no running game = Roethlisberger in for a bad playoff performance = their season is over) and he will look to show voters what he can do. The Jaguars defense will shut down the Raiders offense. Look for the Jaguars in a blowout.

Lions -4.5 vs. Chiefs: When I looked at this game I immediately circled the Chiefs. The Lions have lost six straight after starting the season 6-2 and have been awful in most of their games. They have gotten blown out on the road but have been a strong team at home this year. Two weeks ago they fell just short of beating Dallas and this week they get the lowly Chiefs who have lost seven straight games. The Chiefs have mailed it in and I think the Lions will come out and put up some points.

Colts -7 vs. Texans: The Colts have had a tendency to pack it in and rest up the last two weeks of the season but with Manning on the field – which he will be this week, I can’t go against them. The defense is all banged up but still has some playmakers on the field. The Texans have shown that they can score but they cannot stop Manning, even if he is playing with third string players around him.

Saints -3 vs. Eagles: The Eagles are an odd team to follow. They gave a great performance vs. the Patriots and dominated the game defensively last week vs. Dallas. The Saints still have a chance to make the playoffs and I think they will win a close game here.

Bills +3 vs. Giants: This might be a biased pick but I cannot pick the Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin late in the season, on the road, in the cold weather against an emotional team that will really try to win. Kevin Everett is returning to the sidelines and that will really pump up the Bills who basically lost a chance to go to the playoffs with their loss last week to the Browns. This game will be a low scoring game that comes down to a field goal and I’ll look for Manning to make the mistakes he usually makes in big games. The best part about this game is that the Giants need this game to make the playoffs. If I assume that the Vikings and Saints win their next two games (they are favored in both of them) the Giants will then need to beat New England to get into the playoffs. And that is not happening. Say goodbye to Tom Coughlin!

Packers -8.5 @ Bears: The Packers still have a chance to get home field advantage throughout the playoffs, although they need mediocre teams to beat Dallas. How amazing would that be if Dallas had to play at Lambeau Field in the NFC Championship Game. The Packers have been playing close first halves lately before winning big in the 2^nd half. The Bears offense will have trouble scoring and Favre will relish what might be his last start in Soldier Field.

Browns -3 @ Bengals: The last time these two teams met we said “Who is Derek Anderson”? In Week 2 the Browns won a shootout 52-45 in the coming out party for Anderson and began a great season for the Browns. As bad as Cincinnati has been this will not be an easy game for the Browns. The Bengals want to win this game and hurt Cleveland’s chances at the playoffs. If the Browns can win here they are in (49ers won’t beat them next week in Cleveland) and there is no doubt that they CAN beat Pittsburgh or San Diego in the playoffs. This game will be close but the Browns season continues.

Cardinals -10 vs. Falcons: This game means absolutely nothing. The Falcons have had terrible luck this year with Vick and now the coach quitting. Their season is over and won’t show up in Arizona. If the Cardinals don’t turn the ball over this game will be over in the first half.

Bucs -6 @ 49ers: The Niners played well offensively last week but they played against the worst defense in the league. Now they face one of the best in the league and will likely have a lot of trouble putting up any points. Jeff Garcia also returns to San Francisco and will look to have a big game. The Bucs don’t score that many points (offensively that is) but if their defense can score this game will also be over early.

Jets +8.5 @ Titans: The Jets will not win this game but it will be close. Tennessee still has a chance at the playoffs but have not played very well recently, especially offensively. The Jets played a great defensive game last week in New England (yes the weather stunk but the Patriots did not score an offensive TD all game) and will keep Vince Young in check. The Jets will also not be able to move the ball against the Titans defense. I expect a 16-10 type of game with the Titans keeping their playoff hopes alive.

Patriots -22 vs. Dolphins: The Dolphins looked like a bunch of fairies last week dancing around like they won the Super Bowl. They shouldn’t have even won the game but Stover missed a chip shot field goal in OT that left the door open. The Patriots might rest Brady and other starters if they were up by 3 TD’s but I think the Patriots defense will not give up more than 10 points the entire game. Brady will also look to throw for 4 TD passes to tie Manning so he doesn’t have to do that in the wind next week @ the Giants. Patriots 38-10.

Seahawks (off) vs. Ravens: I’m not sure why this game is off the board for now. I saw the line open at 9 points and I would give those points if it were available. The Ravens season is over. They have lost 8 games in a row including the Miami stinker and now have to travel cross country to play the Seahawks. Seattle played an awful game last week and will look to bounce back at home. The third blowout of the week…..Seahawks 27-6.

Vikings -6.5 vs. Redskins: This game has potential to be a very good close game and is the game of the week as it features two teams playing for the playoffs. Then I looked at the quarterback match-up between Tarvaris Jackson and Todd Collins. Just shows how far the league has fallen when these two guys are competing for the postseason. This game will come down to the running back battle between Adrian Peterson and Portis. Give me Peterson (and Taylor) and give me the Vikings run defense. The X-factor in this game will be which quarterback makes fewer mistakes and who can make one or two plays downfield. I’ll give the edge to Jackson who is coming off of a terrible performance and the Vikings defense will shut down Portis.

Chargers -8.5 vs. Denver: I first circled the Broncos in this game but then I remembered how much Tomlinson likes to beat his division rivals. As long as Tomlinson gets the majority of the touches and Rivers doesn’t have as many opportunities to make mistakes, the Chargers will take care of business just like they did when they beat Denver 41-3 back in October.

Steelers @ Rams

Rams +7.5 vs. Steelers: The Jaguars went into Pittsburgh last week and dominated the game. They were up big in the 4th quarter before the Steelers came back but then were able to put the game away. The Steelers desperately need to get a win to secure a playoff berth. They find themselves tied for the division record-wise (they have the tie-breaker over the Browns) but need to win their last two games to guarantee a home game in the playoffs. The Browns play a tough road divisional game in Cincinnati this week and the 49ers next week. They are favored to win each game and that will put pressure on the Steelers.

On paper this game looks like an easy victory for Pittsburgh. Road games have not been kind to the Steelers this year, however, as they are a measly 2-3 away from Hines Field. More importantly all three losses have come against sub .500 teams (Denver, Arizona, and the Jets). Now they face another bad team on the road in a game that would seem to have much more meaning to them then their previous games with bad teams. I think Pittsburgh will find a way to win both of these games but they will not come as easily as one might hope if your a Steelers fan.
Steelers 27 - Rams 20

Rare Win for the Knicks

The Knicks finally got a home victory last night vs. the Cavs. Before the game began a rally was held outside the garden by angry fans who want Isiah gone. His firing will have to wait a little while after last night.

While watching the game I couldn't help but think (as I'm sure all fans did) why can't the Knicks play this hard all the time. The Knicks have 5 blowout losses and now 8 victories. It's understandable to get blown out once or twice but not often and certainly not at home. These are pro players and the only excuse for blowout losses is lack of effort, and as Isiah says "lack of heart." If the Knicks can show that effort on a nightly basis they would be a +.500 team. They still have some terrible players (Fred Jones and especially the worst player in the NBA Jared Jeffries) and Isiah is a clown but they could win games if they put forth the effort.

Last night's performance was great and the Knicks won big for the first time since this past March. Outside of Lebron the Cavs stink so that obviously helped. By I'm convinced that their effort last night would have been good enough to beat even the elite teams in the league (just as they beat the Jazz and Nuggets at home). Let's not be fooled though. The Knicks are still among the worst in the league because that effort might take too much out of them. I haven't seen the Knicks compete for a long stretch of time in several years.

As a lifelong Knicks fan I want to see a championship. That's not happening this year - or in the next 2-3 years for that matter. I've realized that. But when I turn on the game almost every night I want to see effort. I'm tired of the blowouts, the excuses, the drama and whatever else is going on at the Garden. I want to see playoff basketball every year and I love it when the Garden is rocking the way it does in close games in the 4th quarter.

Unfortunately with Isiah pulling the strings this can't happen. So what do we root for? A few more blowout losses so Isiah gets the axe? Dolan is stupid but how much longer can this last? Will last night's effort continue when they face the Bobcats on Friday night? If it does Isiah will still be in command. Isiah has talked about "shaking up the team." Will Dolan allow him to set the Knicks back even more? I would guess that if the Knicks get blown out at home again it's over for Isiah. That or a 5+ game losing streak to put the Knicks in the basement of the Eastern Conference (now 1 game ahead of Miami) might lead to the firing and hopeful rebirth of the Knicks.

NFL Week 15

The home stretch of the season continues and the playoff picture is looking pretty clear right now. There are a few question marks however. Pittsburgh needs two wins to clinch the division which they should be able to get (after the Jags, they play the Rams and Ravens). The Jaguars will be the 5^th seed. The 6^th seed is up in the air between the Bills, Browns, and Titans. The Titans should be able to win all three of their games (Chiefs, Jets, and the Colts who will rest their starters) and get to 10 wins. The Browns are in the driver’s seat but they need to beat the Bills at home and have a divisional game next week at Cincinnati before they finish at home vs. the 49ers. It could come down to tiebreakers but I still think the Browns finish strong and even force the Steelers to play the final game of the season to clinch the division.

There are fewer questions in the NFC. Seattle will be the #3, Tampa Bay #4 and the Giants #5. The Vikings are in the lead to get the 6^th spot but they still have to beat Washington next week or it could get interesting. The Saints and Cardinals play each other this week with the loser basically being eliminated. Both of these teams have winnable games in the final two weeks and could put pressure on the Vikings. (Saints play vs. Eagles and @ Bears. The Cardinals play vs. Falcons and Rams). This spot will come down to week 17 and possibly tie-breakers as well.

At this time of the year its important to see which of the non-contenders are trying to play the role of spoiler and which teams have given up. The Dolphins, Rams, Falcons, 49ers, Panthers and Bears are done because they all stink and all have injuries to key players. Another key factor is the weather. As the temperature dips into the teens in some areas players are not going to be as motivated to go out and play as hard as they can. The weather will also affect game planning and the final scores. If scores are lower and the bad teams hang around in games, they may feel that they can win and play harder. The good teams that can jump out on top (like the Colts did last week to the Ravens), that bad team will just roll over and quit.

Broncos -1
Bengals -8
Bucs -13.5
*Titans -4
*Seahawks -7.5
Packers -10
Ravens -3.5
*Patriots -23.5
Saints -3.5
Jaguars +3.5
Bills +5.5
*Colts -10.5
Lions +10
*Cowboys -10.5
Redskins +4.5
Vikings -10

*Best Bets

Broncos -1 @ Texans: With a record of 6-7, each team is still mathematically alive for a wild card spot but neither team really has a chance. Both teams have been inconsistent this year. The Broncos have not played well on the road losing 4 out of their last 5 but have played well recently. The Texans missed Andre Johnson for a few weeks and Matt Schaub has looked fragile all year. Sage Rosenfels will likely start tonight in Schaub’s place again. Selvin Young had a great week last week for Denver and I think he will be the reason the Broncos win.

Bengals -8 @ 49ers: This game means absolutely nothing. Like last week, Carson Palmer is the best player on the field and wants to play well. 49ers can play defense but their offense continues to be invisible. Bengals will score and even their defense which is among the worst in the league won’t give up too much to the Niners.

Bucs -13.5 vs. Falcons: The Bucs are heading to the playoffs and the Falcons are searching for a new coach. The Falcons might compete early to show ex-coach Bobby Petrino that they can win without him. The Bucs are coming off of a 14 point loss and want to get back on track. Their defense will shut down a bad Falcons offense and this game will be over by halftime.

Titans -4 @ Chiefs: The Titans have real playoff hopes but let a game slop away last week. Leading by two touchdowns, they allowed the Chargers to score twice in the last part of the 4^th quarter and then lost in overtime. The Chiefs have lost 6 straight games are their season is over. They got blown out in a divisional game last week and coming home won’t matter much (2-5 record at home). The Titans don’t score too many points so the score won’t reflect what kind of game this is but the Chiefs don’t have much of a chance.

Seahawks -7.5 @ Panthers: The Panthers are 1-5 at home and the Seahawks are peaking at the right time. Winners of 5 straight, Seattle is in good position to get the 3^rd seed in the NFC. With wins in the next two games they would also be able to rest their starters including Hasselbeck who has been banged up this year. Seattle won in blowout fashion last week and I would expect more of the same this week.

Packers -10 @ Rams: Marc Bulger might start for the Rams but it won’t matter. Green Bay’s defense is too good to allow the Rams to do much offensively regardless who their QB is. The Packers will be able to score and have had a habit of really beating up on the bad teams on their schedule. They also want to have at least the #2 seed in the playoffs to give Favre a week off.

Ravens -3.5 @ Dolphins: The Ravens played their hearts out against the Patriots two weeks ago and in my opinion they should have won the game. They had nothing left when the Colts visited and the game was over midway through the first quarter. This week they get the worst team in the league and do not want to be the first team to lose to the Dolphins. This might be a low scoring game but Miami’s offense won’t be able to move the ball against the Ravens defense, even if Baltimore is missing some of their key personnel.

Patriots -23.5 vs. Jets: Revenge is sweet. Belichick hates the Jets and he could play this game like it was a video game. He doesn’t need a punter or a place kicker. The Patriots could play the entire game going for fourth down and two-point conversions on their way to one of the most lopsided games in NFL history. The only chance the Jets have in this game is for there to be a lot of snow and strong winds to limit the Patriots passing game. I think the Jets will score between 10 and 21 points but give the Patriots at least 6 or 7 touchdowns. Prediction: Patriots 56 – Jets 21.

Saints – 3.5 vs. Cardinals: This game is a big game for both teams who have playoff hopes and each team will be without explosive players on offense. Both teams have also been disappointing this year and have lost games to inferior teams. I’m not counting the Saints out of playoff contention but still feel they will need help from Minnesota.

Jaguars +3.5 @ Pittsburgh: The Steelers are coming off of a bad loss to New England and will be missing some key players on defense. The Jaguars have played very well this year and recently played the Colts tough in a 3 point loss. Both teams are very physical and can run the ball. I think this game will have a playoff feel to it and will come down to a field goal. I am actually taking the Jaguars for the win in this game.

Bills +5.5 @ Browns: I have been riding the Browns for the past few weeks and I think they will win this week. I am taking the Bills with the points because for some reason, the Browns’ games seem to come down to the 4^th quarter almost every week. After leading 17-6 midway through the 4^th quarter against the Jets, the Browns gave up some late scores. I think they will be leading throughout this game but once again the game may end up closer than it should. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Browns lost but it seems that they find a way to pull out victories in these close games.

Colts -10.5 @ Raiders: The Colts are flying under the radar as everyone continues to watch the Patriots with admiration. In the meantime, the Colts remind me of the Patriots a few years ago when they flew under the radar. The Colts, in my opinion, are actually better suited to play playoff football because they run the ball well and have been great defensively this year. They could win a game in Foxboro if the conditions don’t allow Brady and Moss to hook up for big plays down field. Give me the Colts in a blowout.

Lions +10 @ Chargers: I don’t like either team. The Chargers are disappointing but have played better as of late. They had no business winning last week. They played a terrible game, Tomlinson showed up Rivers on the bench, and Norv Turner looks clueless on the sidelines. Bottom line is they won and are heading back to the playoffs. The Lions have been miserably in the 2^nd half of the season although they played well for 3.5 quarters last week. I expect the Lions to be able to score and I expect Rivers to make some mistakes leading to Lions’ points. Maybe the Lions will get a late touchdown to cover the spread but I’m not laying more than a touchdown on the Chargers.

Cowboys -10.5 vs. Eagles: Dallas had a scare last week with Detroit but Romo led them back in the 4^th quarter. That game was a huge game as it was another example of how poised Romo is under pressure late in games. He trusted his receivers (and tight end) and won the game for his team. The Eagles has a nice opening touchdown drive against the Giants but couldn’t move the ball at all afterwards. McNabb’s tenure in Philadelphia as well as the Eagles season is over. Dallas gets back on track.

Redskins +4.5 @ Giants: I don’t expect the Redskins to win this game with a backup QB but I do expect them to give 110% effort as they still have hopes of making the playoffs and this is a divisional game. They should have beaten the Giants in Washington earlier this year but the coaching staff did an awful job with calling plays on the goal line. The weather will be bad in NY and this game will be just as ugly. FG wins it late.

Bears +10 @ Vikings: The Bears’ season is over and they looked awful last week. The Vikings need this game to maintain a 1 game lead for the wild card. The crowd will be into it and Peterson will look to bounce back after his worst game of the season. I can see the Bears scoring late to cover but its unlikely. The Bears want to go home and the Vikings defense will shut them down.

NFL Week 14

Week 14 in the NFL presents some interesting games including the Steelers at the Patriots. Teams will look to separate themselves from the pack especially in a crowded NFC Wild Card race. The Vikings, Lions and Cardinals are 6-6 and the Redskins trail by a half a game.

The remaining schedule in the NFC favors Minnesota who should be able to beat the Niners this week and the Bears at home next week before a big game with the Redskins in Week 16. I'm counting the Lions out because they have lost 4 straight games and after they play vs. Dallas and at San Diego that losing streak will swell to 6. The Redskins already have 7 losses and might be without Jason Campbell for the remainder of the season. They also have road games against the Giants and Vikings. I can't see them winning both games which would give them at least 8 losses. That would leave the Cardinals as the only challenger to the Vikings for the 6th seed. After this week, they play at New Orleans which will not be easy, and home against the Falcons and Rams. While they only beat Seattle earlier in the season because of a fluke play, I think they can win at Seattle this week. Their defense was okay last week vs. the Browns and they usually play tough against Seattle. I should also mention that at 5-7, the Saints and Eagles have an outside chance as well. The Saints play at Atlanta and Chicago and home vs. Arizona and Philadelphia. The Eagles have games at Dallas and New Orleans and road games vs. the Giants and Bills. The Saints have a good chance to go 4-0 but have been inconsistent all year.

The AFC is not as interesting right now but the playoffs are shaping up to have some great games. The Chargers all but locked up the AFC West especially if they can get a win this week at Tennessee. The Steelers can still get the #2 seed but will have to beat the Patriots. The Colts have three easy games left after they play at Baltimore on Sunday night. The Jagaurs already beat the Bills and should get at least three more wins to lock up the 5th seed. The 6th spot will be determined next week when the Bills visit Cleveland. Onto the picks for Week 14:

Bears +3 x
*Bills -7
Bengals -5.5
*Jaguars -10.5
*Cowboys -10.5
*Bucs -3
Packers -10
Chargers pk
Eagles -3
Vikings -9
Cardinals +7
Broncos -6.5
Steelers +10.5
*Browns -3
Colts -9.5
Saints -4.5

*Best Bets

Bills -7 vs. Dolphins: The Bills might be looking forward to their game next week at Cleveland but it won't matter. The Dolphins are awful and there is no reason to believe they can win a game this year. Yes they lost 6 games by 3 points and you could say they are in most games. However, even the bad teams find a way to win some of those 3-point games. The Dolphins had their chances to win 2 or 3 games and failed. 0-16 is on the horizon.

Bengals -6.5 vs. Rams: Two high scoring offenses with little defense. This game should be a fun game because both teams are going to look to outscore the other. Carson Palmer is the best player on the field and the Bengals will be more focused at home. Marc Bulger will not play for the Rams and Brock Berlin, who has never attempted a regular season pass, will start in his place. The Bengals also are not a bad home team this year going 3-3 (they lost games vs. the Patriots and Steelers and are 3-1 otherwise at home).

Jaguars -10.5 vs. Panthers: This game would be a trap game (played vs. Colts last week and at Pittsburgh next week) but coming off of a tough loss the Jaguars will bounce back. The Jaguars have a tough defense and do not make mistakes on offense. They should win this game easily.

Cowboys -10.5 @ Lions: The Lions have lost 4 straight games and have not looked competitive in the process. The Cowboys have looked great offensively and have started to play better defensively as well. They had extra time to prepare for this game coming off of a big win last Thursday. The Cowboys have also been looking forward to this game since the season began. They got blown out last year vs. the Lions (during a season where the Lions went 3-13) and to make matters worse, Kitna made some foolish comments about some members of the Cowboys defense. Look for another big win from the Cowboys as they move towards clinching home field advantage throughout the Playoffs.

Bucs -3 @ Texans: The Bucs got a great performance last week out of Luke McCown with Garcia out. Garcia is expected to play this week in a huge game for the Bucs. With three easy games left after this week, the Bucs are tied with Seattle for the 3rd spot in the playoffs and need to go 4-0 to have a good chance to get it. Seattle owns the tiebreaker and also have a good chance to end the season 4-0. The Texans have been struggling as of late while the Bucs are getting ready for the playoffs.

Packers -10 vs. Raiders: The Raiders have played much better lately but Favre and the Packers have had some extra time to rest up and look to bounce back after their second loss of the season. Favre is expected to keep his streak alive and start this week. Aaron Rodgers was effective as a backup just in case Favre can't finish the game and Green Bay's defense will get Charles Woodson back to play against his old team. Look for Green Bay's defense to shut down the Raiders and get the Packers back on track.

Chargers pk @ Titans: The Chargers have won two straight games and look to lock up the AFC West in the next two weeks. The Titans have played much better lately especially defensively with Albert Haynesowrth back. It will be a good test to see how the Chargers can run the ball and play against a physical defense. (Their likely first round playoff matchup is against a physical defense in the Jaguars.) I like the Chargers to get a big road win here thanks to Tomlinson and their defense.

Eagles -3 vs. Giants: The Giants are heading to the playoffs as the 5th seed (maybe even the 6th because the Vikings have the tiebreaker over them) but Eli Manning is not the reason. If anything, he will be the reason they do not make it or lose in the first round. Eli has been terrible the last two weeks even though he led a comeback in the 4th quarter over the Bears. He has been an interception machine and still looks like a boy scout on the field. I saw a funny commercial this week advertising a watch. Manning was promoting it and the advertisement says the watch is "unstoppable" just like Eli.

Vikings -9 vs. 49ers: The Vikings looked very impressive last week and I think they are now going to make the postseason. They play 4 teams, all with losing records, and can be a dangerous opponent for the Bucs or Seahawks because of Adrian Peterson and because they can stop the run. QB Tarvaris Jackson has gotten much better as the season progresses and as long as Peterson is in the game, the Vikings have a chance. The Niners on the other hand just cannot score. They got blown out last week at Carolina where the Panthers had previously been 0-5.

Cardinals +7 @ Seahawks: As mentioned above, the Cardinals have played tough games vs. the Seahawks in recent matchups. They need to win this game to keep pace with the Vikings but it won't be easy. After starting the season 4-4, Seattle has won 5 straight games and is 5-1 at home. The Cardinals shockingly lost a home game to the Niners (lost to them twice this year) and were lucky to beat the Seahawks in their first meeting. I think the game will be close but Seattle keeps the winning streak going.

Broncos -6.5 @ Chiefs: The Broncos beat the Chiefs 27-11 at Arrowhead last month and the Chiefs have lost 5 straight games. The Broncos are coming off of a bad loss last week where they made a ton of mistakes. Don't expect Shanahan's team to make those same mistakes this week as they need this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. They don't have much of a chance anyway but their season will not end this week.

Steelers +10.5 vs. Patriots: The game of the week. The Patriots are coming off a short week and a lucky win. The refs gave them the game at Baltimore and now the NY Post can keep the asterisk next to the Patriots in the newspaper. The Patriots were stopped on 4th and 1 - twice. If not for a timeout from the Ravens sideline or a false start on the Patriots, the game would have ended right there. The Patriots got a third chance on 4th and 5 after a ref threw a late flag for defensive holding after a Brady pass sailed out of the end zone. #1. Randy Moss said after the game that the Ravens had been holding all game and it was good to see them finally get a call right. If Moss is right and the refs had not been calling that a hold all game, then they need to be consistent on the last play of the game. In basketball, the players see how the refs are calling the game early on. Sometimes refs are letting the players play and other times they call everything. In this case, the refs needed to be consistent and if that play was not holding throughout the game, it cannot be called at that point either. #2. The flag was very late. A holding penalty on the defense by definition is when the ball is still in the quarterback's hand. If the ref saw a hold, the flag should have come out prior to the ball being thrown and certainly before it landed out of bounds. #3. At the end of the game, the refs have to let the players play ball. That play decided a well-played, tough game that in my opinion was dominated by Baltimore. The Patriots could not run the ball and it was too windy to throw the ball deep. Baltimore played their hearts out and for the refs to give the Patriots the game was terrible. #4. Flip the play around....what if it were 4th and 5 for the Ravens and that call was made against the Patriots to basically end their chances of going undefeated. The Patriots and their fans would be going nuts about #'s 1, 2, and 3 above. It would be all over the sports news pages and the bottom line would come down to #3. The game should not be deciced by the refs. What a shame. In my book the Patriots are 11-1 and I really hope the Steelers, Giants, or better yet the Dolphins or Jets can somehow beat this team. I'm disgusted just thinking about the Patriots. Let's go Steelers!

Browns -3 @ Jets: The Browns are coming off of a tough road loss to Arizona and get to play the Jets. The Jets looked great last week but then you realize they played the Dolphins. The Browns look to keep their playoff chances alive and well with a win this week. I can see a high scoring game because Cleveland doesn't like to play defense and the Jets should take chances down field. However, the Browns have too much offense for the Jets and will take advantage of a young secondary.

Colts -9 @ Ravens: The Ravens gave all that they had last Monday night and I don't think they can duplicate that performance 6 days later. The Colts are more physical then the Patriots and are better defensively. Look for the Colts to control the clock and lock down on Baltimore defensively. I can see the Ravens playing a close game early but the Colts will pull away in the second half.

Saints -4.5 @ Falcons: As mentioned above the Saints can finish 4-0 or 0-4. They are as inconsistent as can be. They won big vs. the Jaguars but then lost to the Rams. It does not make much sense. Bottom line is this: they need to go 4-0 to have a chance at the playoffs when a new season begins. I think they can get 4 wins with Chicago, Arizona and Philly on their remaining schedule but they have to be more consistent defensively. With Chris Redman as the likely starting QB for the Falcons, the Saints should keep their playoff hopes alive.

Baseball Trade Talk + Redskins vs. Bears

Bears +3 @ Redskins: There is not much to get excited about here. Two bad teams who had hoped to be in the playoffs this year match up after a short week. The week was especially short for the Redskins who buried their teammate on Monday.

Incredibly, at 5-7 both teams are still in the playoff hunt being 1 game out of the 6th seed. The loser of this game can kiss the season goodbye but the winner is right there. The Redskins had a great chance to win last week until they gave up a game winning field goal as time was running out. This came after Joe Gibbs, who's mind is clearly not on football, called back to back timeouts and gave the Bills a chance to attempt a 36 yard field goal instead of a 51 yard attempt. The Bears also blew a 4th quarter lead to the Giants after they had a 9 point lead at home. We know the Bears offense is terrible but their defense is almost equally as bad ranked among the worst in the league. Jason Campbell can move the ball for the Redskins but he makes too many mistakes to kill good drives.

Tonight I look for an ugly game filled with turnovers, missed opportunities and a lot of field goals. I can't see how the Redskins had any time to prepare for this game and therefore, I can't see how they win this game unless they shut down Devin Hester and score points on defense.

Bears 23 - Redskins 16

Baseball Trade Talks:

The hot topic of the week is Johan Santana. Will he be traded? If so when? And to who? The Red Sox, it seems, only jumped into the mix to get the Yankees to give up more of their prized prospects and young pitchers. Since Hank Steinbrener was stupid to set a deadline (who knows if that is serious or not), the Yankees have "officially" backed out of the talks. Since no one else either a) can afford to sign Santana, b) want to pay Santana, or c) is willing to part with their best young pitchers or prospects, it seems as if the Red Sox are the only team left. If I were the Red Sox, I part with Ellsbury, Lester and throw in some mid-level prospects. They still keep their better young pitcher in Bucholtz and they get another ace in their rotation. They would become a dynasty and be favored to win the World Series for the next 6 years (so long as their pitchers stay healthy).

Tha Yankees CANNOT let this happen. I would like to keep Phil Hughes. I think he will be very good, maybe even great, and he is very young (and cheap for the next few years). However, if the Yankees can get an ace to match Beckett, Carmona, or Verlander, they have to give up Hughes. Melky Cabrera is an okay player and I'm not interested in other prospects. The Yankees will always be a "now" team and getting Santana would put them over the top. This is a must-make trade and the Yankees would be making a grave mistake in passing up the opportunity.

As a side note, I think the best case scenario is for the Twins to hold onto Santana and then trade him in July, or better yet, maybe he finishes the season with the Twins if they are contenders. The the Yankees could try to get him without giving up Hughes, or anyone for that matter. I guess we'll see what happens....stay tuned.

NFL Week 13

Last night’s game between the Cowboys and Packers went almost as scripted. It was a high scoring game with Dallas moving the ball almost at will. When Brett Favre went out of the game I thought it would be a blowout but the Packers did a nice job getting back into the game before ultimately losing by 10. Before getting to the picks, the NFL Network’s play-by-play announcer Bryant Gumbel is among the worst I’ve ever heard. His voice is annoying to listen to and he doesn’t know the players’ names. He called AJ Hawk “Adrian” and worst of all, when the game was wrapping up I heard him say something about “Rick Romo.” That alone should get him fired. Onto the picks:

Dolphins -1
*Lions +4
Eagles -3
Texans +4
Jaguars +6.5
Bills + 5.5
Chargers -6
49ers +3
Rams -3
*Browns +1.5
*Broncos -3.5
Saints -3.5
Bears +1.5
Bengals +7
Patriots -

Dolphins -1 vs. Jets: I thought the Jets were lucky to win 10 games last year (mostly a product of their schedule) and predicted they would win around 6 this year. I didn’t think they would be this bad though. The 0-11 Dolphins have lost 6 of their games, including one in NY to the Jets, by 3 points. They have bad players and have been devastated by injuries this year but I think they will win at least one game this season. Luckily they get to play the Jets and finally get a win.

Lions +4 @ Vikings: The Lions have not played well over the last few weeks and have been dominated at the line of scrimmage. They still don’t run the ball and cannot protect Kitna. This week, however, not running the ball might help them as the Vikings are very good at stopping the run and have trouble in the secondary (not counting the 4 interceptions which were compliments of one of the biggest busts in the NFL – Eli Manning). The Lions finally get back on the winning side this week.

Eagles -3 vs. Seahawks: The Eagles played a fantastic game last week and came up just a little short vs. the Patriots. The Eagles have had problems this year with McNabb and with Andy Reid’s family troubles but they are still very good defensively and have Brian Westbrook on offense. This team has a tough road ahead if they want to make the playoffs but I think they will at least compete the rest of the season. The Seahawks are banged up and have no running game. Expect the Eagles to take advantage of many passing downs by blitzing all game and they get back to .500 on Sunday.

Texans +4 @ Titans: The Titans started off on the right track but since Albert Haynesworth went down with an injury they have been one of the worst teams against the run in the league. They lost their last three games by 15, 14, and 29 points and are in freefall right now. The Texans have their offense back together and should be able to score enough points to win this game. If not they will cover the 4 points.

Jaguars +6.5 @ Colts: With the division on the line this game figures to be a very physical and exciting game. The Colts easily beat the Jaguars earlier this year but have been banged up for the last month. Luckily for them they had some extra rest after playing on Thanksgiving. They will need it this week against one of the most physical teams in the league. Offensively, the Jaguars can run the ball and Garrard doesn’t make many mistakes. I think the Jaguars can keep this game close only because Manning does not have all of his weapons. I would take the Colts to win a game decided by a FG.

Bills +5.5 @ Redskins: This is a tough game to pick. The Redskins will be playing this game with heavy hearts after the passing of Sean Taylor earlier in the week. They might be able to come out and play hard early but the NFL is about preparation. There was no way this team was able to prepare for the Bills on Sunday and it will show late in the game.

Chargers -6 @ Chiefs: The Chiefs won 30-16 in San Diego in Week 4 in a surprising game and the Chargers look to return the favor this week. The Chiefs are normally a good team at home (13-3 the last 2 seasons) but have lost three straight games there and are now 2-4 this season at Arrowhead. I think it is time for the Chargers to put together some wins and take control of a bad AFC West division.

49ers +3 @ Panthers: The Panthers have lost five straight games and are 0-5 at home this season. 44 year old Testaverde is expected to start but it really doesn’t matter. The 49ers defense is good (despite giving up a ton of yards last week) and will show up to play this week after getting a win last week. Expect a very low scoring (and boring) game that should be decided by a FG. I think the 49ers will actually get it this week.

Rams -3 vs. Falcons: Bulger is questionable for this game right now but as long as Joey Harrington is on the field for the opposition the Rams will win. The Rams have played better as of late putting up 37 points against the Saints and almost beating the Seahawks last week. If Bulger were definitely starting this would be one of my locks but never bet on Gus Frerotte (fumbled snap on 4^th and goal with a chance to win last week) just in case he starts. I’ll pick against Joey Harrington once again.

Browns pk @ Cardinals: I’ve been riding the Browns for 2 months now and I’m not going to stop until they prove me wrong. The Cardinals just lost a game where had they won they would be in the driver seat for the final playoff spot (own tie-breaker over the Lions). Instead they fell under .500 by poorly managing the clock in the final minutes for SF and missing a chip-shot field goal in overtime. The Browns impressed me defensively last week and if they can stop other teams they will win a lot of games. They are a game ahead of the Titans for the final AFC playoff spot and will continue to put up big numbers in Arizona.

Broncos -3.5 @ Raiders: Congratulations to the Raiders who finally got a road win last week against a division opponent. Now they are home to a Denver team that has semi righted the ship….that is until they couldn’t figure out how to punt the ball out of bounds and away from Devin Hester. Their defense has played much better but after Hester single handedly kept Chicago in the game last week, Denver’s defense imploded and allowed Rex Grossman to lead the Bears back and win the game. Denver is well coached and they hate the Raiders. I think the Raiders are going to have a very tough time scoring this week and Denver gets back to .500.

Saints -3.5 vs. Bucs: Jeff Garcia is hurt and probably will not play this week. When he went out of the game last week the Bucs had a lot of trouble moving the ball. The Redskins moved the ball but Jason Campbell turns the ball over in big spots all of the time. Without Garcia this week, I give the edge to the Saints to get back to within 1 game of the Bucs for the division lead.

Bears +1.5 vs. Giants: Eli Manning vs. Rex Grossman. Both quarterbacks are busts on mediocre teams. Grossman was already benched earlier in the year and the way Eli Manning is going, he should also be benched. Eli has been good at times this year but has been beyond awful in big games throughout his career – especially late in the season. Last week was one of the worst performances I witnessed this year. Eli single handedly gave 21 points to a Vikings team that has had trouble scoring points. To make matters worse, he looks like a little boy scout in his press conferences, he shows no toughness, and his GM referred to him as being “skittish.” This team might make the playoffs because of their schedule and because the NFC stinks but I can’t wait to bet against them come playoff time.

Bengals +7 @ Steelers: Here is what you need to know for this game: The weather forecast calls for lows of 32 degrees and an 80% chance of rain. If you saw the field last week you probably bet the “under 38” (or would have bet the under). The players could not get a footing to move around and it is nearly impossible to kick field goals from a distance farther than 25 yards. The Steelers have a huge advantage on this type of field over the Bengals because they can just run the ball the entire game. The Bengals can’t stop the run anyway and on this field they would not be able to move the ball. If the field resembled that of last week in any way expect another defensive struggle. Normally I would lay the points but who knows, it might just end 3-0 again.

Patriots -20 vs. Ravens: I love the Patriots in this game after escaping with a win last Sunday night. The Ravens will not score more than 10 points in this game, if that much, and the Pats will look to get back to blowing teams out. They don’t even try to run the ball anymore knowing that Brady completes more than 75% of his passes and moves the ball almost at will. I think the Patriots win this game by closer to 30 points (38-10).

The Real Jokers

A few years ago when the San Francisco 49ers took a turn for the worse I predicted they would be the next "Bengals" of the league and have at least a decade of mediocre to bad seasons. 4 years ago I nicknamed them the "49-Jokers" and they have pretty much lived up to that name. But what I just witnessed in tonight's Knicks vs. Celtics game was by far the worst professional sporting event that I have ever seen and the Knicks, who have been a circus act since Jeff Van Gundy quit the team a few years back, have finally hit rock bottom and are the real joke in sports.

Being the sports fan that I am I was very excited for both the football game and the Knicks game this evening. I watched the football game with family while pleading with everyone around me not to say the score in the Knicks game because it was being 'tivo'd' and I planned on watching it later at night. Fastfoward to 1:00 in the morning as I watched the Knicks finally trail by 50 points. Yes, 50 points. The Knicks ultimately lost by only 45 as Nate Robinson (the only Knick to score double digits in points with 11) hit a 3-pointer from half court at the buzzer. Marv Albert got all excited as the Knicks were able to avoid losing by their largest margin in team history.

Before the season began I saw the second preseason game vs. the Celtics and in the early going I saw games vs. the Jazz and Nuggets - all Knicks victories. As an optimistic fan I actually believed this team had a chance to win games and reach the playoffs. Now, unfortunately it is obvious that the Knicks are among the worst teams in the league with the worst coach in the league. They are a group of talented individual players who cannot play together and who show absolutely no effort whatsoever.

The starting 5: Zack Randolph, while a solid double-double type player, is a hog. He cannot pass and he turns the ball over often. He also has only 1 offensive move going to his left and if I were a foot taller and 250 pounds, he would not be able to score on me. Eddy Curry is soft, cannot defend or rebound, and is a turnover machine. Crawford is a good player on a bad team. Q-Rich is an old man with a bad back who lost his shooting touch and therefore, shouldn't play. He is also the idiot who made negative comments before the game about the Celtics which KG said was posted on the bulletin board and motivated the team. Marbury is a good talent but a terrible point gaurd and leader.

The bench: Isiah must think he is coaching hockey and likes to go to his second line early in the game. The combination of Nate Robinson, Fred Jones, Renaldo Balkman, Jared Jeffries, and David Lee make up the Knicks 'defensive unit." As Charles Barkley said, "these players play hard but they just ain't very good." Who is the scorer in this lineup? Jeffries is terrible as is Fred Jones. Nate, Lee and Balkman should be regularly subbed with the starters to mix and match for defensive purposes and for energy minutes. To sub all 5 or even 4 of the starters at one point is just plain stupid.

As bad as the team has been in recent memory it seemed as if the players still played hard for Isiah and really cared about winning. It is now evident that the players have quit which means Isiah should be fired tomorrow. Its one thing to be a bad coach but you have a major problem when your players don't come out and play with any bit of effort in a nationally televised game vs. a division rival, especially against a team that is considered among the best in the league.

I was sitting at home watching this game and I was embarrased. I know every other Knicks fan watching felt the same way. I hope Jim Dolan spent a few hours watching this disaster and realizes that this is the end of the line for Isiah. The stories are getting old and the season is almost lost. How much lower can the Knicks sink before that idiot does something to fix it?

NFC Championship Game – Part I

If you’re a football fan this game is a must watch. I’ve heard all week how people don’t have the NFL Network and can’t watch the game. Give me a break. If you don’t have DirecTV then go to someone else’s house that does. There are also thousands of bars in the city or places to watch the preview of the NFC Championship Game. Both of these teams are head and shoulders better than the other NFC teams with the other potential playoff teams being the Seahawks, Bucs, Giants, and possibly the Saints, Lions, Eagles or Cardinals. None of those teams match up with the Cowboys or Packers and would lose in the playoffs by double digits. For the Championship Game, this game is for home field advantage - something that would be much more valuable to the Packers than the Cowboys.

This game is very interesting because the Cowboys are the better team but the Packers match up very well. (I also think the Packers match up extremely well against the Patriots if they were to play them in the Super Bowl but that’s not for now). Here’s why……

When the Cowboys have the ball:
Look for Dallas to attack downfield early and often. The coaching staff knows they need to get TO involved early in the game and will also get Patrick Crayton back from injury. Jason Witten is one of the top tight ends in the league and he will be used down the middle of the field. Marion Barber III is a beast and a tremendous weapon out of the back field. The Packers, however have an excellent defense. They rush the passer extremely well and have very quick linebackers. Most importantly they have two very physical and very good corners to play bump and run. (Woodson is not 100% healthy but he will play tonight.) While they certainly won’t stop the Cowboys receivers they could slow them down, take away some big plays and cause Romo to make some mistakes.

When the Packers have the ball:
Statistically Brett Favre is having his best season as a Pro and that is saying a lot. More importantly, the Packers have never started a season 10-1 and Favre to this point would be my vote for league MVP. Despite being a wild gunslinger at times throughout his career, over the past five games (all wins) he has minimized his mistakes while passing for 13 TDs and only 2 interceptions. The Cowboys can rush the quarterback but the Packers can counter that by throwing screen passes – something they do often. The Packers have a running game now as well with Ryan Grant rushing for over 100 yards in three of his last five games. Where the Packers can really take advantage is throwing the ball downfield. Dallas has recently done a better job defensively but they are still vulnerable in the secondary, especially since Roy Williams simply cannot defend the pass.

The Packers will be in this game because they have an above average defense and of course Brett Favre. I certainly would not be surprised if the Packers won but the Cowboys can score with anyone and as long as Romo doesn’t make bad decisions they will win tonight.

Cowboys 30 – Packers 24
(Packers +7, Over 51)

NFL Week 12 - Part II

Since I was out of town for Thanksgiving, here is an abbreviated version of my picks for Sunday's (and Monday's) games.

Jaguars -8.5
*Browns -3
Raiders +5
Rams +3
*Giants -7
*Bucs -3
*Saints -2
Bengals +1.5
*Cardinals -10
Ravens +8.5
Broncos +1.5
Patriots -24
Dolphins +15.5

*Best Bets

Thanks for Football: NFL Week 12 Part I

Thanksgiving is here which only means 1 thing. The football season is turning the corner and heading for the home stretch. There are still 6 games left to play but teams are starting to show their true colors and can see the finish line. Thursday’s schedule only features one truly meaningful game between two contenders but all three games are extremely important for at least one of the teams involved.

Like last week, there are multiple games with double digit spreads making it difficult to pick the favorite. There was no reason to even think the Steelers would lose a “home” game to the Jets and the Colts played a very poor game offensively vs. the Chiefs. I’ve gone back and forth with the picks for tomorrow but ultimately, I’m going with the better teams (all favorites) in each game off of a short practice week and I hope that none of them look forward to Week 13 when they each have big games with a lot on the line (Colts at Jaguars is a game basically for the division. Packers at Cowboys might determine home field advantage for the NFC Championship Game).

Colts -11.5 @ Falcons: To start with the night game, I like the Colts to win this game by at least 10 points. The Falcons are going to Joey Harrington as starter and their offense is not good anyway. The Colts defense should be able to clamp down and force turnovers. As far as Manning goes, I understand he is playing with third string receivers but he still has Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne, not to mention Addai. On top of that, the Falcons play on turf which is good for the Colts offense. I think the Colts know they can go into this game, get a win, and then have some extended time off to heal and get ready for a huge game with the Jaguars. Lastly, if you think back to the last time Peyton Manning played on thanksgiving, I believe he threw for 6 touchdown passes.
Colts 27 - Falcons 10

Cowboys -14 vs. Jets: The Jets shocked me last week by playing extremely well vs. the Steelers, even if the Steelers looked like they couldn’t care less about playing. To bounce back 4 days later with a similar effort is very difficult not to mention they are playing on the road on Thanksgiving against a much better team. Dallas just won 3 straight division games and they are arguably the second best team in the NFL. They are a much better offensive team than the Steelers and Romo can move around in the pocket and make plays whether his running game is on or off. Roethlisberger is completely dependent on his running game and when it is not working well – he stinks. The Jets shut down the Steelers running attach and that’s why they won. The Cowboys love the spotlight and will win big.
Cowboys 34 – Jets 13

Packers – 3.5 @ Lions: The Lions are a dangerous home team every year on Thanksgiving but this year they are actually a good (really mediocre but in this league they are good) team. Problem for them is that the Packers are the second best team in the NFC and might even have one of the best defenses in the league. They have two shutdown corners in Woodson and Harris, they have solid linebackers and they can rush the passer. That is not a good match-up for the Lions who love to throw the ball and don’t protect the QB well. This game might be a close game if Favre makes mistakes but as the season has progressed, he has continued to build relationships with his young receivers and trusts them more and more each game. Favre is having so much fun playing and his team is rallying behind him. I’m looking forward to a great Thursday night game next week when the Packers go to Dallas.
Packers 27 – Lions 20

The Circus Returns to New York

The theme of this past week is “disgraceful.” Sometimes I watch games or even teams off the field and don’t understand what I’m seeing or hearing. Professional athletes are paid millions and millions of dollars and the sports industry pulls in billions in annual revenue throughout the country. The events surrounding the Knicks this past week have been bizarre and more importantly, pathetic. Marbury is one of the highest paid players in the league and has not been playing to his potential this season. He has not played to his potential his entire career for that matter so the decision made by Isiah Thomas to bench him after 5 games was shocking and foolish. I guess Isiah was trying to light a fire under Marbury. If that was his hope it was a success. Marbury was so angry that he left the team (what professional athlete just leaves the team?) and headed back to NY like a child. In the meantime, Isiah Thomas polled the team to see whether or not they thought Marbury should be allowed to play the following night when he found time to rejoin his teammates. The poll’s results were overwhelming in that just about everyone voted for Isiah to sit Marbury the entire game. In response, Isiah did not start Marbury but played him for about 35 minutes during the game vs. the Clippers that night.

The Knicks are now home from a 4 game west coast trip where of course they lost all 4 games as part of a 6 game losing streak. For the record, since Isiah got his contract extension last year the Knicks are a measly 6-22. To make matter just a bit worse, Isiah was upset with his team and kicked them all out of practice yesterday. In all my years following sports I have never heard of a scenario where a coach was so angry that he kicked the ENTIRE TEAM out of practice. I’ve heard of practicing longer hours, or giving the team less time off, or even doing more running and tougher drills. Thankfully Isiah allowed them to come back rather quickly and moved on but just the thought of this is absurd.

The Knicks were a laughing stock under Larry Brown two seasons ago and the negative attention over the summer was a huge blemish on the organization. If the season continues the way it has begun, we are headed for an all time low in the Jim Dolan era and that is hard to believe. Isiah is a horrible coach (he completely blew the game on Friday night vs. the Kings at the end of regulation and overtime with ridiculous substitutions) and is without a doubt the worst President of Basketball Operations in the NBA today. Charles Dolan gave the Knicks to Jim and it’s time for the younger Dolan to take his “toy” seriously by ridding the team of this Isiah disease. Until that happens, the organization will continue to be a circus act and will have no chance to improve to the standards set by us fans.

NFL Week 11

Last week was a strange week in the NFL. Nine road teams won and only three of those nine teams were favored in the game. The Chargers were lucky to beat the Colts despite being completely outplayed. The Colts gave up a kickoff and a punt returned for a TD and still should have won until Adam Vinatieri missed a 29 yard FG attempt. In the injury department, the Colts lost Dwight Freeney for the season with a foot injury and the Vikings lost Adrian Peterson for maybe a month. In the Vikings game, the Packers looked like the 1997 team winning 34-0. On top of that, the now 1-8 Rams put up 37 points and beat the Saints who are competing for the NFC South division title.

Week 11 features a lot of bad games including six that have teams favored by 9+ points. Bad games make it difficult to pick against the spread especially when all of those teams should win easily. The only really interesting game on the board is the Giants at the Lions. Some people say that Buffalo looks good and could be competitive at home on Sunday night vs. the Patriots. I say those people are just trying to find a game where the Patriots can lose. I’ll talk more about that in the picks but the Patriots are so much better than the Bills and are coming off of a bye week. This game won’t be close. Onto the picks with the descriptions below (with the updated lines on Sunday if they change):

Jaguars -3
*Browns -2.5
Giants -2.5
*Saints +1.5
*Packers -9.5
Colts -14.5
Raiders +5
Dolphins +10
*Bucs -3
Bengals -3
*Steelers -9.5
Redskins +10.5
*Rams -3
Bears +5.5
Patriots -16
Titans +2

*Best Bets (The 49ers are out of it and I can now bet against them)

Jaguars -3 vs. Chargers: This game should be similar to the game the Chargers played two weeks ago at Minnesota. The Chargers played a more physical team, could not run the ball, and couldn’t stop the run. The Jaguars are a more physical team and certainly much better than the Vikings. (Adrian Peterson is obviously not going to be there so don’t expect 296 rushing yards but I would not be surprised to see the Jaguars run for close to 200 yards son Sunday. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are coming off of a very impressive win at Tennessee last week where they were able to rush for 166 yards. David Garrard practiced with the first team this week and is expected to start on Sunday. Look for the 6-3 Jaguars to win this week and next before a division showdown at Indianapolis in two weeks.

Browns -2.5 @ Ravens: Last week I was curious to see who would win the match-up between the Ravens offense and the Bengals defense. The Bengals give up about 28 points per game and the Ravens scored only 7 at home. This week the Ravens will have another opportunity against the Browns defense (also among the worst in the league) with Kyle Boller starting. The difference in this game is the Browns offense. Despite struggling in the 2^nd half vs. Pittsburgh, the Browns offense is good and can put up points (They beat the Ravens 27-13 in Week 4). I don’t think the Ravens will be able to keep up in this game either.

Giants -2.5 @ Lions: This is the game of the week as two 6-3 teams fight for the two wild card spots. These two teams are also very evenly matched with each having solid offenses and mediocre defenses. Each team can rush the quarterback but the Giants do a better job blocking and Jon Kitna has been sacked a league leading 37 times (with 11 fumbles). In addition, each team is weak in the secondary and gives up big plays. The Giants and Lions are both coming off of double digit losses last Sunday. The Lions loss was extremely disappointing as they had a good chance to improve to 7-2. Instead they fell to a poor Cardinals team and still have to face the Giants, the Packers twice, the Chargers, and the Cowboys. The Giants fell to a far superior Cowboys team and look to get back on track towards the 5^th seed in the playoffs. Expect a high scoring game (over/under is 47.5) and since the Giants are the better team they get the win.

Saints +1 @ Texans: I could certainly make a case for Houston this week: they are home, they are coming off of a bye, they are getting their top two offensive weapons (Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub) back from injury, and they are playing against a team that just lost to the 0-8 Rams. With that being said, I love the Saints this week. The Saints went down early last week and didn’t know what hit them. Brees threw two early interceptions and was pressured all game. The Saints, down by 27 points with 12 minutes remaining, managed to come back in the 4^th quarter by putting up 22 points. Their offense is explosive and the Texans give up more than 25 points per game. I think this game also has the potential to be very high scoring (over/under is 47) but the Saints desperately need this win to remain 1 game behind the Bucs for the division lead and will get it this week.

Packers -10 vs. Panthers: The Packers are very good. Favre has played brilliant football at times late in games and would be my vote for league MVP if the season ended today. He leads the league in passing yards and is on pace for close to 5,000 yards at age 38. Their defense has also played extremely well giving up less than 16 points per game. More impressive is running back Ryan Grant who has rushed for 100 yards in two of the last three games including last week against a very good Vikings run defense. The Panthers are still in the hunt for the division but that will not continue. At 4-5, the Panthers have lost three straight since their bye week and have not announced who will play quarterback this week. The spread is high but the Packers have proven that they can beat up on inferior teams.

Colts -14.5 vs. Chiefs: If the spread of this game was below 10 it would be my lock of the week. The Colts are banged up in multiple areas and they just lost Freeney to a season ending foot injury. The positive news is their next two games are against the Chiefs and Falcons – two games they should win easily as long as Peyton Manning is on the field. The Colts return home from a game where Manning played the worst first half of his career, and Vinatieri, one of the most consistent and clutch kickers of this era, missed a chip shot 29 yard FG attempt to win the game. The Chiefs lost at home to a bad Denver team by 16 points, will be without Larry Johnson and will start Brodie Croyle on Sunday. Look for the Colts to strike early and often and get back to their winning ways.

Raiders +5.5 @ Vikings: Definitely the worst game of the week. This will be a very low scoring game (over/under is 35) as each team has a stingy defense giving up about 20 points per game and neither team can score (both teams average 17 points per game). As mentioned above, the Vikings essentially lost their offense (and the only reason to turn on a Vikings game) when Adrian Peterson went down with a knee injury last week. Tarvaris Jackson has been bad this year with a QB rating of 50.6 and will start on Sunday. The Raiders will counter with Daunte Culpepper who has been mediocre this year at best but will play well in his first return to Minnesota since they traded him after the 2005 season. Culpepper is an emotional player and will use that to his advantage this week. I think the team to score 17 or maybe 20 points first will win this game and with Culpepper being the X–factor, I am taking the Raiders for the straight up win. [Side note to my reader who is a Raiders fan, a.k.a. “The Cooler” because he cannot win a bet: Do yourself a favor, do not take the Vikings money line and don’t even watch this game. Your team might actually win and you shouldn’t bet against your team. This coming from a 49ers fan who bet the Rams as soon as the line came out because I thought it would go up.]

Dolphins +10 @ Eagles: The Eagles look to get back to .500 with a win over the winless Dolphins. While I don’t think the Packers or Colts will have trouble covering big spreads, I’m not so sure the Eagles can. The Eagles will win this game but the Dolphins’ last two losses were by a combined 6 points. The Eagles have the ability to put up points (56 vs. the Lions) but have been disappointing all season. Miami will turn to rookie QB John Beck to see if he can get them into the ‘wins’ column. Miami played good defense last week vs. Buffalo and Jesse Chatman had a nice day running the ball. I’ll pick the Dolphins to keep this game within 10 points but I would not be surprised if the Eagles won in a blowout.

Bucs -3 @ Falcons: This is the lock of the week besides for the Rams vs. 49ers. The Bucs are coming off of a bye week and had a chance to rest Garcia who is 38 years old. Garcia is one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL with a 95.5 rating. He was a winner with the 49ers, he won last year with the Eagles, and he will lead the Bucs to a postseason berth this year. The Bucs at 5-4 are leading and should win the division as all of their 7 remaining games are against teams with losing records. The Falcons, despite winning two straight games, are an awful team and this will be an easy game for the Bucs.

Bengals -3 vs. Cardinals: The Cardinals played a good defensive game last week vs. the high powered Lions offense and get another chance this week against a good Bengals offense. The Bengals defense is the worst in the league and the season is lost but I think their offense still has fun as they were able to put up 24 points vs. the Ravens defense. Furthermore, I don’t trust the Cardinals on the road. Look for another high scoring game and I think the Bengals will put up close to 30 points and win.

Steelers -9.5 @ Jets: The Jets are among the worst teams in the league and the Steelers have shifted into high gear over the last few weeks. Roethlisberger was excellent last week and with his team trailing by more than 2 touchdowns in the first half, he engineered a great comeback including two go ahead TD drives in the fourth quarter. The Jets are bad all around from coaching down to the players. They will not be able to move the ball at all this week against a Pittsburgh defense that is ranked first in the league in several defensive categories. The Jets are also bad on defense and rank last in the league with only nine sacks. Roethlisberger will have all day to throw the ball and should have a huge day in a Steelers blowout.

Redskins +10.5 @ Cowboys: The Cowboys are by far the best team in the NFC and should be favored by 10 points in every game after they beat up the Giants last week. There defense is mediocre but their offense is explosive. That being said, the Cowboys have a short week and might be looking forward to beating up the Jets on Thanksgiving. The Redskins also match up nicely with Dallas because they have a strong secondary that can be physical with the Cowboys receivers. Like the Eagles over the Dolphins, I would not be surprised to see Dallas come out and dominate this game at home just like they did the last two weeks when they were on the road against division teams. However, they might take the next two weeks for granted before a Thursday night game vs. Green Bay making this game closer than it should be.

Rams -3 @ 49ers: Lock of the week. The Rams are bad but not as bad as their 1-8 record indicates. On the flip side the 49ers are not as good as their 2-7 record and should not have won the game in St. Louis earlier this season. If not for a missed 56 yard FG attempt (missed by about a foot) the 49ers would be 1-8 and the Rams 2-7. The Rams put up 37 points last week and while the 49ers defense is better than that of the Saints, they are on the field the most out of any team in the league. Also, the 49ers just cannot score any points. Side note: Alex Smith came out yesterday and blamed his poor play on his injured shoulder. If you are injured, don’t play. Don’t be like Phillip Rivers and make excuses for being a bust and one of the worst quarterbacks in the league.

Bears +6 @ Seahawks: Rex Grossman stinks but he played well when he took over last week (throwing a 59 yard TD pass and no interceptions) in a victory over the Raiders. The Seahawks are coming off of a short week but look to continue their dominance at home over bad teams. The Bears are 3-2 on the road and are looking to get back to .500. This will be a tough game for them but they will keep it close.

Patriots -15.5 @ Bills: Before this game came out I guessed that the spread would be Patriots by 13. The fact that the line is more than two touchdowns does not surprise me at all. Many experts have made a case for the Bills to keep this game close but I’m not buying into it. The fact that they won 4 straight games is nice but then you look at their opponents. The combined record for the teams beaten by the Bills since Week 7 is 8-28. Rookie running back Marshawn Lynch also might not be available. The Patriots are coming off of a bye and with the exception of the Colts game they won every game by at least 17 points, including beating the Cowboys by 21 points in a highly anticipated game. They also beat the Bills by a score of 38-7 earlier in the season. Belichick would not allow his team to be complacent and I don’t see how the Bills are going to match up and stop the Patriots offense.

Titans +2 @ Broncos: Denver did a good job at home on Monday night a few weeks ago but that was a fluke. The Titans will get Albert Haynesworth back this week and he will help shut down a bad Broncos running game. The Titans on offense get Chris Brown back to compliment LenDale White and together with Vince Young, the Titans might rush for over 200 yards against the worst run defense in the league. Look for the Titans defense to step up and for Vince Young to make just enough plays under the MNF spotlight to win the game and remain in the AFC playoff race.

A-Rod Back?

The shocking news that officially broke yesterday was that Alex Rodriguez apparently realized that he had made a mistake by opting out of his contract and was now “crawling back” to the Yankees. Since Arod began his career he has been on a leash pulled by agent Scott Boras. While Boras is a jerk, he does a good job getting his clients the most money possible and advises them accordingly. Arod is not a child and is free to do as he pleases. Therefore, opting out during Game 4 of the World Series was Arod’s fault even if Boras advised him to do so.

The Yankees have been smart about handling the situation from day 1. By apparently not getting involved with the bidding, there are only a handful of teams who can afford Arod’s services and fewer who would actually pay him. The Mets have no room for him, the Red Sox fans don’t want him, The Cubs don’t have an owner to pay him (team is being sold), the Giants just got rid of Bonds because they did not want to spend so much money on one player, and the Angels don’t have any players making more then $14 million. I thought he would end up going to the Angels for well under $300 million and probably not for 10 years.

By taking themselves out of the market, the Yankees knew that if all else failed they would have a chance to bring Arod back at a “discount” price. The rumor now is 10 years at about $275 million. While that is still a ridiculous contract, it is much less than the $350 million Boras wanted Arod to get. I believe the Yankees need a right-handed power bat and Arod is the best player in the game. Despite his lack of post-season success, the Yankees are certainly better with him then without him.

For the next few years the Yankees also have 4 young pitchers who are making next to nothing (in baseball terms). Wang is arbitration eligible soon and will get paid but Chamberlain, Hughes and Kennedy will combine to make barely over $1 million for each of the next 3 years. Giambi is coming off the books next year and Roger Clemens’ days in NY are over. I still would not be surprised to see the Yankees go after Johan Santana for $25 million per year for 6 years in the near future. The only issue I have with Arod’s contract is the length. Ten years is a very long time for an athlete, especially one who is 32 and will be 42 when the contract is up. Anything can happen in that time. Along with age and possible injuries, players slow down and their abilities diminish. Arod could go down as the best player ever while breaking both the home run and hits records. He could continue to put up tremendous numbers but never win the big series. Or he could tail off in his mid to late 30’s and this contract will look more foolish than ever.

The alternative to resigning Arod is to trade young players to fill a hole (3^rd base and right handed power) – something that is not prudent for the Yankees to do. If the contract does not work out, the Yankees can afford the mistake like they afforded their many other mistakes in recent years (Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, Kevin Brown, Jason Giambi, Kei Igawa, Jarrett Wright, Javier Vazquez, etc.). Bottom line is this: The Yankees are much better with Arod playing 3^rd base this season then without and as much as Arod is a selfish jerk, almost every Yankees fan I know would sign him if they were in the Steinbrenner’s position.