NFL Week 14

Week 14 in the NFL presents some interesting games including the Steelers at the Patriots. Teams will look to separate themselves from the pack especially in a crowded NFC Wild Card race. The Vikings, Lions and Cardinals are 6-6 and the Redskins trail by a half a game.

The remaining schedule in the NFC favors Minnesota who should be able to beat the Niners this week and the Bears at home next week before a big game with the Redskins in Week 16. I'm counting the Lions out because they have lost 4 straight games and after they play vs. Dallas and at San Diego that losing streak will swell to 6. The Redskins already have 7 losses and might be without Jason Campbell for the remainder of the season. They also have road games against the Giants and Vikings. I can't see them winning both games which would give them at least 8 losses. That would leave the Cardinals as the only challenger to the Vikings for the 6th seed. After this week, they play at New Orleans which will not be easy, and home against the Falcons and Rams. While they only beat Seattle earlier in the season because of a fluke play, I think they can win at Seattle this week. Their defense was okay last week vs. the Browns and they usually play tough against Seattle. I should also mention that at 5-7, the Saints and Eagles have an outside chance as well. The Saints play at Atlanta and Chicago and home vs. Arizona and Philadelphia. The Eagles have games at Dallas and New Orleans and road games vs. the Giants and Bills. The Saints have a good chance to go 4-0 but have been inconsistent all year.

The AFC is not as interesting right now but the playoffs are shaping up to have some great games. The Chargers all but locked up the AFC West especially if they can get a win this week at Tennessee. The Steelers can still get the #2 seed but will have to beat the Patriots. The Colts have three easy games left after they play at Baltimore on Sunday night. The Jagaurs already beat the Bills and should get at least three more wins to lock up the 5th seed. The 6th spot will be determined next week when the Bills visit Cleveland. Onto the picks for Week 14:

Bears +3 x
*Bills -7
Bengals -5.5
*Jaguars -10.5
*Cowboys -10.5
*Bucs -3
Packers -10
Chargers pk
Eagles -3
Vikings -9
Cardinals +7
Broncos -6.5
Steelers +10.5
*Browns -3
Colts -9.5
Saints -4.5

*Best Bets

Bills -7 vs. Dolphins: The Bills might be looking forward to their game next week at Cleveland but it won't matter. The Dolphins are awful and there is no reason to believe they can win a game this year. Yes they lost 6 games by 3 points and you could say they are in most games. However, even the bad teams find a way to win some of those 3-point games. The Dolphins had their chances to win 2 or 3 games and failed. 0-16 is on the horizon.

Bengals -6.5 vs. Rams: Two high scoring offenses with little defense. This game should be a fun game because both teams are going to look to outscore the other. Carson Palmer is the best player on the field and the Bengals will be more focused at home. Marc Bulger will not play for the Rams and Brock Berlin, who has never attempted a regular season pass, will start in his place. The Bengals also are not a bad home team this year going 3-3 (they lost games vs. the Patriots and Steelers and are 3-1 otherwise at home).

Jaguars -10.5 vs. Panthers: This game would be a trap game (played vs. Colts last week and at Pittsburgh next week) but coming off of a tough loss the Jaguars will bounce back. The Jaguars have a tough defense and do not make mistakes on offense. They should win this game easily.

Cowboys -10.5 @ Lions: The Lions have lost 4 straight games and have not looked competitive in the process. The Cowboys have looked great offensively and have started to play better defensively as well. They had extra time to prepare for this game coming off of a big win last Thursday. The Cowboys have also been looking forward to this game since the season began. They got blown out last year vs. the Lions (during a season where the Lions went 3-13) and to make matters worse, Kitna made some foolish comments about some members of the Cowboys defense. Look for another big win from the Cowboys as they move towards clinching home field advantage throughout the Playoffs.

Bucs -3 @ Texans: The Bucs got a great performance last week out of Luke McCown with Garcia out. Garcia is expected to play this week in a huge game for the Bucs. With three easy games left after this week, the Bucs are tied with Seattle for the 3rd spot in the playoffs and need to go 4-0 to have a good chance to get it. Seattle owns the tiebreaker and also have a good chance to end the season 4-0. The Texans have been struggling as of late while the Bucs are getting ready for the playoffs.

Packers -10 vs. Raiders: The Raiders have played much better lately but Favre and the Packers have had some extra time to rest up and look to bounce back after their second loss of the season. Favre is expected to keep his streak alive and start this week. Aaron Rodgers was effective as a backup just in case Favre can't finish the game and Green Bay's defense will get Charles Woodson back to play against his old team. Look for Green Bay's defense to shut down the Raiders and get the Packers back on track.

Chargers pk @ Titans: The Chargers have won two straight games and look to lock up the AFC West in the next two weeks. The Titans have played much better lately especially defensively with Albert Haynesowrth back. It will be a good test to see how the Chargers can run the ball and play against a physical defense. (Their likely first round playoff matchup is against a physical defense in the Jaguars.) I like the Chargers to get a big road win here thanks to Tomlinson and their defense.

Eagles -3 vs. Giants: The Giants are heading to the playoffs as the 5th seed (maybe even the 6th because the Vikings have the tiebreaker over them) but Eli Manning is not the reason. If anything, he will be the reason they do not make it or lose in the first round. Eli has been terrible the last two weeks even though he led a comeback in the 4th quarter over the Bears. He has been an interception machine and still looks like a boy scout on the field. I saw a funny commercial this week advertising a watch. Manning was promoting it and the advertisement says the watch is "unstoppable" just like Eli.

Vikings -9 vs. 49ers: The Vikings looked very impressive last week and I think they are now going to make the postseason. They play 4 teams, all with losing records, and can be a dangerous opponent for the Bucs or Seahawks because of Adrian Peterson and because they can stop the run. QB Tarvaris Jackson has gotten much better as the season progresses and as long as Peterson is in the game, the Vikings have a chance. The Niners on the other hand just cannot score. They got blown out last week at Carolina where the Panthers had previously been 0-5.

Cardinals +7 @ Seahawks: As mentioned above, the Cardinals have played tough games vs. the Seahawks in recent matchups. They need to win this game to keep pace with the Vikings but it won't be easy. After starting the season 4-4, Seattle has won 5 straight games and is 5-1 at home. The Cardinals shockingly lost a home game to the Niners (lost to them twice this year) and were lucky to beat the Seahawks in their first meeting. I think the game will be close but Seattle keeps the winning streak going.

Broncos -6.5 @ Chiefs: The Broncos beat the Chiefs 27-11 at Arrowhead last month and the Chiefs have lost 5 straight games. The Broncos are coming off of a bad loss last week where they made a ton of mistakes. Don't expect Shanahan's team to make those same mistakes this week as they need this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. They don't have much of a chance anyway but their season will not end this week.

Steelers +10.5 vs. Patriots: The game of the week. The Patriots are coming off a short week and a lucky win. The refs gave them the game at Baltimore and now the NY Post can keep the asterisk next to the Patriots in the newspaper. The Patriots were stopped on 4th and 1 - twice. If not for a timeout from the Ravens sideline or a false start on the Patriots, the game would have ended right there. The Patriots got a third chance on 4th and 5 after a ref threw a late flag for defensive holding after a Brady pass sailed out of the end zone. #1. Randy Moss said after the game that the Ravens had been holding all game and it was good to see them finally get a call right. If Moss is right and the refs had not been calling that a hold all game, then they need to be consistent on the last play of the game. In basketball, the players see how the refs are calling the game early on. Sometimes refs are letting the players play and other times they call everything. In this case, the refs needed to be consistent and if that play was not holding throughout the game, it cannot be called at that point either. #2. The flag was very late. A holding penalty on the defense by definition is when the ball is still in the quarterback's hand. If the ref saw a hold, the flag should have come out prior to the ball being thrown and certainly before it landed out of bounds. #3. At the end of the game, the refs have to let the players play ball. That play decided a well-played, tough game that in my opinion was dominated by Baltimore. The Patriots could not run the ball and it was too windy to throw the ball deep. Baltimore played their hearts out and for the refs to give the Patriots the game was terrible. #4. Flip the play around....what if it were 4th and 5 for the Ravens and that call was made against the Patriots to basically end their chances of going undefeated. The Patriots and their fans would be going nuts about #'s 1, 2, and 3 above. It would be all over the sports news pages and the bottom line would come down to #3. The game should not be deciced by the refs. What a shame. In my book the Patriots are 11-1 and I really hope the Steelers, Giants, or better yet the Dolphins or Jets can somehow beat this team. I'm disgusted just thinking about the Patriots. Let's go Steelers!

Browns -3 @ Jets: The Browns are coming off of a tough road loss to Arizona and get to play the Jets. The Jets looked great last week but then you realize they played the Dolphins. The Browns look to keep their playoff chances alive and well with a win this week. I can see a high scoring game because Cleveland doesn't like to play defense and the Jets should take chances down field. However, the Browns have too much offense for the Jets and will take advantage of a young secondary.

Colts -9 @ Ravens: The Ravens gave all that they had last Monday night and I don't think they can duplicate that performance 6 days later. The Colts are more physical then the Patriots and are better defensively. Look for the Colts to control the clock and lock down on Baltimore defensively. I can see the Ravens playing a close game early but the Colts will pull away in the second half.

Saints -4.5 @ Falcons: As mentioned above the Saints can finish 4-0 or 0-4. They are as inconsistent as can be. They won big vs. the Jaguars but then lost to the Rams. It does not make much sense. Bottom line is this: they need to go 4-0 to have a chance at the playoffs when a new season begins. I think they can get 4 wins with Chicago, Arizona and Philly on their remaining schedule but they have to be more consistent defensively. With Chris Redman as the likely starting QB for the Falcons, the Saints should keep their playoff hopes alive.

Baseball Trade Talk + Redskins vs. Bears

Bears +3 @ Redskins: There is not much to get excited about here. Two bad teams who had hoped to be in the playoffs this year match up after a short week. The week was especially short for the Redskins who buried their teammate on Monday.

Incredibly, at 5-7 both teams are still in the playoff hunt being 1 game out of the 6th seed. The loser of this game can kiss the season goodbye but the winner is right there. The Redskins had a great chance to win last week until they gave up a game winning field goal as time was running out. This came after Joe Gibbs, who's mind is clearly not on football, called back to back timeouts and gave the Bills a chance to attempt a 36 yard field goal instead of a 51 yard attempt. The Bears also blew a 4th quarter lead to the Giants after they had a 9 point lead at home. We know the Bears offense is terrible but their defense is almost equally as bad ranked among the worst in the league. Jason Campbell can move the ball for the Redskins but he makes too many mistakes to kill good drives.

Tonight I look for an ugly game filled with turnovers, missed opportunities and a lot of field goals. I can't see how the Redskins had any time to prepare for this game and therefore, I can't see how they win this game unless they shut down Devin Hester and score points on defense.

Bears 23 - Redskins 16

Baseball Trade Talks:

The hot topic of the week is Johan Santana. Will he be traded? If so when? And to who? The Red Sox, it seems, only jumped into the mix to get the Yankees to give up more of their prized prospects and young pitchers. Since Hank Steinbrener was stupid to set a deadline (who knows if that is serious or not), the Yankees have "officially" backed out of the talks. Since no one else either a) can afford to sign Santana, b) want to pay Santana, or c) is willing to part with their best young pitchers or prospects, it seems as if the Red Sox are the only team left. If I were the Red Sox, I part with Ellsbury, Lester and throw in some mid-level prospects. They still keep their better young pitcher in Bucholtz and they get another ace in their rotation. They would become a dynasty and be favored to win the World Series for the next 6 years (so long as their pitchers stay healthy).

Tha Yankees CANNOT let this happen. I would like to keep Phil Hughes. I think he will be very good, maybe even great, and he is very young (and cheap for the next few years). However, if the Yankees can get an ace to match Beckett, Carmona, or Verlander, they have to give up Hughes. Melky Cabrera is an okay player and I'm not interested in other prospects. The Yankees will always be a "now" team and getting Santana would put them over the top. This is a must-make trade and the Yankees would be making a grave mistake in passing up the opportunity.

As a side note, I think the best case scenario is for the Twins to hold onto Santana and then trade him in July, or better yet, maybe he finishes the season with the Twins if they are contenders. The the Yankees could try to get him without giving up Hughes, or anyone for that matter. I guess we'll see what happens....stay tuned.