Friday, January 11, 2008

NFL PLAYOFFS - DIVISIONAL ROUND

Going back as far as I can remember, there has not been a football weekend with a better schedule of games. Last week featured 4 games, 8 quarterbacks and 9 interceptions. This week we get Manning (the good one), Brady, and Favre and that should lead to much better performances. Every match-up has its own excitement aside from the fact that it’s the second round of the playoffs.

Seahawks +7.5 @ Packers:
The Packers have been pretty consistent all year round (with the exception of playing the Bears) on both sides of the ball. Their defense is a little banged up but they can rush the quarterback and they have a solid secondary. Seattle has been a different team on the road than they have been at home. Last week they looked dominant defensively throughout most of the game and put great pressure on Todd Collins (especially Patrick Kerney). Favre will do a better job against the pressure but might go through a lapse where he makes some wild throws. Green Bay also has a running game with Ryan Grant and the Seahawks’ running game has been nonexistent this year. The running attack might be very important as there might be some snow at game time. This game will come down to whether or not Hasselbeck, who has numerous minor injuries, can match Favre’s production. Ultimately, this could be Favre’s last game at Lambeau Field (although says he wants to play next year) and it wouldn’t be a fitting end for him to lose this game. Holmgren is another advantage over Mike McCarthy but the Packers are a more complete team and they will move on to a rematch with Dallas next week. Packers 23 – Seahawks 17

Patriots -13.5 vs. Jaguars: Before the Jaguars held off the Steelers I would have said that this game would be much closer. I would have even given the Jaguars a fighting chance to win the game outright. The Jaguars are a physical team that can control the clock by running the ball. Their defense is good and I think that they will play the Patriots similar to the way the Ravens did. After last week’s performance in the second half I take that all back. The Jaguars have no chance to win this game and it won’t be close. The Patriots are on a mission – to win and to accumulate records. They are rested and healthy and will score plenty of points. If the Jaguars fall behind early will they change their game plan and throw more? Jack Del Rio did not show much confidence in Garrard last week as he only attempted 21 passes (completing 9 and throwing 2 picks with 1 TD). Garrard will have to run the offense efficiently, manage the clock, keep his offense on the field, and more importantly – score touchdowns. The Patriots will score early and I don’t think the Jaguars can keep up. Patriots 34 – Jaguars 17

Colts -9 vs. Chargers: Last week vs. the Titans the Chargers looked like two different teams. The first half was disgraceful. They could not move the ball through the air or ground and were shutout. The defense was solid throughout the game and it kept them in it until their offense was able to get on track in the 2nd half. Philip Rivers, surprisingly, was very good in that half and he had to be. Tomlinson averaged 2 yards per carry and was a non factor until the last drive of the game. Tomlinson will have to be much more of a factor this week especially since Gates is hurt and might not play. Rivers needed that game for his confidence but this week he will face a much better secondary with Bob Sanders in it than last week. Going back to mid-November when the Chargers beat the Colts……that game was also a tale of two halves. The Colts were awful in the first half and went down 23-0. In the second half the Colts dominated and outscored the Chargers 21-0 before Vinatieri missed a potential game winning 29 yard FG with less than 2 minutes to go. Manning had his worst game ever throwing 6 interceptions but in his defense, he was playing without Harrison, Clark, Gonzalez and other key personnel. Manning knows what happened in that game and he won’t let it happen again. Clark is playing and even if Harrison is not back to being himself, Manning has gotten familiar with his secondary targets and has had time to work with them over the last few weeks. The Colts have had some trouble opposing teams who use a 3-4 defense but the second half of the previous match-up is likely how this game will go. The Colts don’t care about blowing teams out like the Patriots do so this game might have a final score that is closer than the game actually goes. The Colts will run the ball with Addai, control the clock and control the game. Colts 31 – Chargers 20

Giants +7.5 @ Cowboys: This is the hardest game of the week to pick because of Tony Romo’s romantic life and T.O.’s ankle. Tony Romo (and other Cowboy players) spent a week in Mexico with his girlfriend and despite having the week off, I’m sure the coaching staff and fans in Dallas would not expect the starting quarterback to be vacationing in Mexico. In a few weeks Romo will have plenty of time to unwind and vacation. Now is the time for preparation. Romo and the Cowboys did not end the season on a good note. They tried to put together a few nice drives in the first half vs. the Redskins in Week 17 but could not get going. They ran for 1 yard the entire game and Romo was not on target. On a positive note, Dallas came out of their bye week this year (off several poor performances) by playing very well. The Giants have been clicking the last few weeks and Manning has made fewer mistakes. Manning will have to play well again for the Giants to have a chance. The Cowboys need to come out and strike early to get back on track and keep their confidence up. The other X-factor is Owens’ injury. He practiced on Thursday and I have no doubt he will play. The only question will be how effective he can be. When he played in the Super Bowl with the Eagles he came back from injury and played great. I think he will be a factor and play well. The Cowboys won both of their previous match-ups with Dallas by double digits and if they are clicking this game could go the same way. Because of the way the Giants are playing lately I will pick them to keep the game close but would not be surprised if they lost big. I would be surprised if they won. Cowboys 27 – Giants 21.