Monday, October 20, 2008

World Series Preview:

There are many different factors that go into this series.

Starting Pitching:
The Phillies have Cole Hamels at the top and he will need to pitch on short rest twice (Games 1, 4, 7) for the Phillies to have a chance. Bretty Myers is good but is inconsistent. The Rays have Jamie Shields, Kazmir and Garza to counter. Kazmir doesn't go deep into games but will neutralize the lefties of the Phillies.
Edge: RAYS

Hitting:
Rollins, Utley and Howard are some of the most dangerous hitters in the game. Rollins sets the table and the other guys drive him in. If BJ Upton and Longoria stay hot they can carry the Rays offensively.
Edge: PHILLIES

Bullpen:
Brad Lidge has not blown a save in a long time and the Rays don't have a closer. Before Game 5 of the ALCS the Rays bullpen was fantastic. After that they have been a ticking time bomb waiting to explode. I don't know who will close for them (should be David Price) and getting to the closer will be difficult. One advantage they do have (especially in NL parks) is multiple left handers to match up with lefties.
Edge: PHILLIES

Home field advantage: Obviously goes to the Rays who have been fantastic at home all year. I don't think the DH factor will make much of a difference. It's not like you have to play David Ortiz at first base.

X-Factors:
Rays: (a) lefty relievers to face the Phillies lefties.
(b) David Price. I've been raving about this guy for the last 12 hours and I'll continue to do so until he proves otherwise. If he can be effective as a closer or give an inning+ out of the pen he poses a threat to the Phillies. His control looked good last night, he was calm in a tremendously pressurized situation, and he is another lefty that can face Utley and Howard.

Phillies: Long layoff. We've seen this before. Last year the Rockies and the year before that the Tigers had long layoffs before the World Series began. Each of those teams came out flat and lost any chance of winning the first game (maybe first 2 games). We'll see how this affects the Phillies bats.

3 Question to be answered:
1. Can the Rays bullpen get the job done?
2. Will the long layoff affect the Phillies?
3. Can Upton and Longoria out-slug Utley and Howard?

Prediction:
To those questions I say yes, no, and yes.
I expect these games to be very well played. Both teams play good defense, especially in the outfield, and have very good pitching. As most games do, this series will come down to pitching. I think the Rays have better starting pitching, home field advantage and are riding a magical season.

Furthermore, look at the 2 leagues. The Rays have played FAR SUPERIOR competition both in the division, league and playoffs. They outlasted the Yankees and Red Sox for the division. They overcame a major loss in Game 5. They were mentally tested in Game 7. The Phillies are good but the Rays are better.

RAYS IN 6