Thursday, March 27, 2008

Yankees: Prepare for a long season....

As a fan of the Knicks and 49ers it is only logical to be slightly pessimistic about my teams. The Yankees have disappointed their fans during the last few seasons and I am not enthusiastic about this year either. Last year the Yanks got off to a horrendous start and bounced back to be the best team in baseball during the 2nd half of the season. The lineup was healthy and the young pitchers did a tremendous job contributing.

This year I believe the Yankee lineup will continue to be among the best in the game. Projections:
Damon - will have a bounce back year, hit around .280 and be very active on the bases.
Jeter - same old story. Jeter will be an All Star....put him down for .300 & 125 runs.
Abreu - was very good during the 2nd half and I think that will continue.
A-rod - MVP candidate & All Star but maybe not as good as last year. He seems to be ready after a great Spring and you can put him down for 40 HR and 130 RBI.
Giambi - If healthy he can still hit for great power
Posada - Will not have as good of a year as last year. I have no idea how he hit that well and was the most consistent Yankee (along with A-Rod). Posada will be good but not great.
Matsui - I cannot stand him. I think he is breaking down and the Yankees should have traded him while his value was higher.
Cano - Will be an All Star this year and might be in the running for the batting title.
Melky - I don't like him either but he is serviceable for now. He is a good fielder but I don't like him at the plate. Melky's numbers were not bad last year but he has no power and he was awful in September. I'll give him one more year before really passing judgment.
Bench:
Duncan - love the energy and will hit for power.
- I don't care for anyone else on the bench and hopefully they will not be needed for extended periods of time.

The problem with the Yankees (like most teams) is lack of starting pitching and middle relief. Rivera is great and Joba will be fine in the 8th inning role despite a rocky Spring. Hopefully the Yankees will keep him there and groom him to take over for Rivera in 3 years. Joba could turn into an immortal if he continues his brilliance and I don't care how good he could be as a starter - he should stay in that role. Who is the Yankees MVP during their dynasty years? A: Rivera. Case closed.

Working backwards......the middle relief is disgusting to look at. For starters, the Yankees still think Kei Igawa could make the roster. He probably won't but the fact that he has not been ruled out yet speaks volumes about the crap that they currently have. According to Peter Abraham in addition to Joba and Mo it will probably be:
Farnsworth
Hawkins
Traber
Rasner
Bruney or Ohlendorf

Excited? I'm not. At least Jeff Karstens is on the DL because he stinks. Trouble is, so does Rasner and Hawkins. Traber isn't any good but he's a lefty. I won't get started on Farnsworth other than to say that if the Yanks are figuring him into their plans (in a role aside from mop-up duty) they will have big problems.

Onto the starters (in order of their projected rotation)
Wang - If you are a Yankee fan you cannot have confidence in Wang. If you do please tell me why. He was awful in the postseason, again, and he has been terrible this Spring. Hopefully he will be a pleasant surprise during the regular season but even if they do make the playoffs - who want to see Wang in game 1?
Pettitte - Always reliable when healthy but health will be a big factor this year. Andy has already missed a Spring start and will not be ready for the 2nd game of the season. The Yankees need Pettitte to give them quality innings this year.
Mussina - I thought Moose was done but he has shown in Spring that he could still pitch (against minor leaguers that is). We will see if it can carry to the regular season and he is needed. If Mussina resorts to his form from last year the Yankees are in trouble.
Hughes - looks great and will be a stud. Hopefully the Yankees don't baby him this season.
Kennedy - I'll wait to judge but hopefully he could give 5+ solid innings each start.

All in all, I think the Red Sox will win the division as will the Tigers. It will come down to the Wild Card between the Yanks and Indians and if I had to bet I would pick the Indians. The Yankees have not missed the playoffs in over a decade and they always seem to find a way. On paper it doesn't look too promising but hopefully that trend will continue.