Being that football is my favorite sport, it only makes sense to me that the first real entry is on the NFL. That and it is the Friday before Week 10 of the 2007 NFL season. Before I get to the picks, it doesn’t take a genius to realize the Patriots are probably one of the top teams of all time. The Colts’ defense impressed me last week and I thought the Colts would win when they had a 20-10 lead with 8 minutes left. While Manning is great, I had no doubt that when the Pats got the ball back trailing 20-17 that Brady would drive them for a go-ahead TD. I did not have the same faith when Manning got the ball with more than 2 minutes to go down by 4. Unfortunately for the NY fans now, Boston sports is at an all-time high. The Patriots will go undefeated and win the Super Bowl to follow the Red Sox and I would not be surprised to see the Celtics represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals. Onto the picks with the descriptions below:
*Browns +9.5 (line updated to +10)
Vikings +6
Eagles +3
Jaguars +4
Atlanta +4
*Chiefs -3
*Bills -3 (line updated to -2.5)
Saints -11.5 (line updated to -10)
Bengals +4
Bears -3.5
*Cowboys -1.5 (line updated to -2)
*Lions +1
*Colts -3.5
Seahawks -10
*Best Bets (I don’t bet against the 49ers)
Browns +9.5 @ Steelers: I love the Browns in this game for several reasons. For starters the Steelers are coming off of a short week and Roethlisberger is slightly banged up after suffering a hip injury during the 3rd quarter vs. the Ravens. For the Browns, QB Derek Anderson has 17 TDs and 2,108 passing yards after 7 games and at this rate will be the 3rd QB in the Pro Bowl for the AFC. The Browns will give up a lot of points (29.1 per game) but can score in bunches (28.4 per game) (7 of their games have gone “over” this year). They are 6-2 against the spread (6-1 if you don’t count the Pats game) and actually played the Pats very well (were down by ‘only 10’ until a late fumble recovery for a TD). They might not win this game but I think the Browns cover a close one.
Vikings +6 @ Packers: Vikings have no QB but Adrian Peterson is the best running back in the league this year running behind arguably the best offensive line in the league. Not that the Packers can run the ball anyway but the Vikings are great vs. the run and will force Favre to beat them. Favre has done that in recent weeks playing fantastic 2nd halves in Denver and in KC. Last time these teams met Kelly Holcomb threw the ball 39 times and Peterson ran the ball ONLY 12 times for 122 yards and caught 1 pass. That is terrible play calling and don’t expect that to be the balance in this game. I think Favre will find a way to win this one again but assuming that the Vikings give the ball to Peterson 30+ times, it won’t be by more than 6.
Eagles +3 @ Redskins: The Eagles are a desperate team and there are rumors that McNabb will not be on the team next year. The Redskins ran the ball very well last week but that was against a terrible Jets defense. They also have no QB as Cambell has thrown more interceptions (7) than TDs (6). The Eagles have also won 6 of their last 7 games in Washington. I think this game could be decided by a FG but the Eagles get it.
Jaguars +4 @ Titans: This game should be the lowest scoring game of the week as neither team has a QB that can move the ball, both teams rely on their running games, and both teams can stop the run. The Jaguars do not have Stroud in this game (drug suspension) and Albert Haynesworth might not play for the Titans (strained hamstring). David Garrard practiced this week and might start for the Jags but either way, this game comes down to who can establish the running game and control the clock.
Falcons +4 @ Panthers: The only reason to turn this game on would be to watch DeAngelo Hall vs. Steve Smith. Problem is Steve Smith might not know who is throwing him the ball. Testeverde is coming off of a slight injury and the Panthers might start rookie Matt Moore (2-5 with 36 yards and a pick last week when he came in for Carr).
Chiefs -3 vs. Broncos: Larry Johnson is out but that doesn’t matter because Denver can’t stop the run no matter who starts for KC. Priest Holmes isn’t too bad of a backup anyway. On the other side of the ball, Jay Cutler probably won’t play after being carted off the field last week. Denver, who is 3-5, could easily be 1-7 if a few bounces (Raiders game) and last second FGs don’t go their way. The Chiefs at 4-4 are competing with a schizophrenic Chargers team and will continue to do so this week.
Bills -3 @ Dolphins: The Bills look to win their 4th straight game and move over .500 for the first time in a long time against arguably the worst team in the league. The Bills are in the playoff race and Losman has played well in his career vs. the Dolphins.
Saints -11.5 vs. Rams: Like the Bills, the Saints are looking to move over .500 for the first time this season – here by winning their 5th straight game. Brees and the Saints’ offense are playing great right now putting up 41 points against a solid Jaguars defense last week. The Rams are a tremendous disappointment and won’t be able to keep up with the Saints, especially in New Orleans.
Bengals +4 @ Ravens: The Bengals have burned me all season. They have underachieved, their defense is banged up, they can’t play defense anyway, and they are fighting internally. If for no other reason, the Ravens just do not deserve to be a favorite. They got destroyed on Monday night in Pittsburgh, McNair is beyond his prime to say the least and the Ravens offense cannot score. Should be interesting to see which will give in.
Bears -3.5 @ Raiders: The Bears are coming off of a bye week and the Raiders cannot score with Josh McCown playing QB. I wouldn’t watch this game unless there was nothing else on and the game goes into overtime. I would take the Bears as they are coming off of a bye and feel that a win can get them back into the mix in the NFC.
Cowboys -1.5 @ Giants: Game of the week – by far. Both teams have improved since they played in week 1, especially the Giants on defense. I still believe the offenses will be able to score and this will be a fun back and forth game to watch. The Giants have a short history of folding under Tom Coughlin after starting 6-2 so we’ll see if that continues. Not only that, the Giants 6 wins in a row have come against the Redskins (5-3), the Eagles (3-5), Jets (1-8), Falcons (2-6), 49ers (2-6) and Dolphins (0-8). Notice the theme here. These teams are a combined 13-36. Now I believe the Giants are good but their record does not tell the whole story. On the other side, Dallas was able to go into Philadelphia for a Sunday night game last week and blow them out. The main thing to watch in this game is the Cowboys offensive line vs. the front four of the Giants. I’m taking Dallas because they are the better team, their O-line is excellent and Eli will make more mistakes than Romo.
Lions +1 @ Cardinals: Who would have believed Jon Kitna when he said the Lions would go 10-6 (I know he didn’t actually say that and just said he would be disappointed if they did not get there….). The Lions are for real as we know they have a good offense with some excellent receivers. More impressive is that they have given up only 30 points in the last 3 games since their bye week. The Lions should win this one easily.
Colts -3.5 @ Chargers: Watching the Colts-Patriots game last week told me two things about the NFL this season. 1. Tony Dungy has done an excellent job with the Colts’ defense as they are one of the best in the league. 2. The Colts and Patriots are in a league of their own. When the Colts visit San Diego, they are disappointed about last week and feel they let one slip away. Meanwhile, last week the Chargers could not stop the run at all and offensively, they were predictable and flat out bad. They ran the ball for a loss on first down several drives in a row and Philip Rivers loves to blame everyone around him for his inconsistent play. I thought that getting Chambers would take this team to the next level but Rivers has proven that he will not be a winner in this league until he grows up. They were horrible last week and the Colts will make them look bad again.
Seahawks -10 vs. 49ers: I’m the biggest 49er fan (maybe aside from one of my brothers) but certainly not biased towards them. They are among the 4 worst teams in the league with an okay defense and an offense that is so bad its laughable. Alex Smith is not good and has regressed this year (I know he was injured for a few weeks but his passer rating is 57.6. Sadly, the 49ers also have not had a 300 yard passer in over 50 games. As for the Seahawks, they are not good either. Alexander has been disappointing (3.3 yards per carry and only 2TDs) and has been booed at home. Seattle won 23-3 back in week 4 and after blowing a big lead last week only to lose in OT, this team will bounce back at home on Monday night. As a side note to this game I want to illustrate just how bad the league is. The 49ers, who have lost 6 games in a row and are now 2-6, can pull within just 1 game of the division lead with a win on MNF.
