The home stretch of the season continues and the playoff picture is looking pretty clear right now. There are a few question marks however. Pittsburgh needs two wins to clinch the division which they should be able to get (after the Jags, they play the Rams and Ravens). The Jaguars will be the 5th seed. The 6th seed is up in the air between the Bills, Browns, and Titans. The Titans should be able to win all three of their games (Chiefs, Jets, and the Colts who will rest their starters) and get to 10 wins. The Browns are in the driver’s seat but they need to beat the Bills at home and have a divisional game next week at Cincinnati before they finish at home vs. the 49ers. It could come down to tiebreakers but I still think the Browns finish strong and even force the Steelers to play the final game of the season to clinch the division.
There are fewer questions in the NFC. Seattle will be the #3, Tampa Bay #4 and the Giants #5. The Vikings are in the lead to get the 6th spot but they still have to beat Washington next week or it could get interesting. The Saints and Cardinals play each other this week with the loser basically being eliminated. Both of these teams have winnable games in the final two weeks and could put pressure on the Vikings. (Saints play vs. Eagles and @ Bears. The Cardinals play vs. Falcons and Rams). This spot will come down to week 17 and possibly tie-breakers as well.
At this time of the year its important to see which of the non-contenders are trying to play the role of spoiler and which teams have given up. The Dolphins, Rams, Falcons, 49ers, Panthers and Bears are done because they all stink and all have injuries to key players. Another key factor is the weather. As the temperature dips into the teens in some areas players are not going to be as motivated to go out and play as hard as they can. The weather will also affect game planning and the final scores. If scores are lower and the bad teams hang around in games, they may feel that they can win and play harder. The good teams that can jump out on top (like the Colts did last week to the Ravens), that bad team will just roll over and quit.
Broncos -1
Bengals -8
Bucs -13.5
*Titans -4
*Seahawks -7.5
Packers -10
Ravens -3.5
*Patriots -23.5
Saints -3.5
Jaguars +3.5
Bills +5.5
*Colts -10.5
Lions +10
*Cowboys -10.5
Redskins +4.5
Vikings -10
*Best Bets
Broncos -1 @ Texans: With a record of 6-7, each team is still mathematically alive for a wild card spot but neither team really has a chance. Both teams have been inconsistent this year. The Broncos have not played well on the road losing 4 out of their last 5 but have played well recently. The Texans missed Andre Johnson for a few weeks and Matt Schaub has looked fragile all year. Sage Rosenfels will likely start tonight in Schaub’s place again. Selvin Young had a great week last week for Denver and I think he will be the reason the Broncos win.
Bengals -8 @ 49ers: This game means absolutely nothing. Like last week, Carson Palmer is the best player on the field and wants to play well. 49ers can play defense but their offense continues to be invisible. Bengals will score and even their defense which is among the worst in the league won’t give up too much to the Niners.
Bucs -13.5 vs. Falcons: The Bucs are heading to the playoffs and the Falcons are searching for a new coach. The Falcons might compete early to show ex-coach Bobby Petrino that they can win without him. The Bucs are coming off of a 14 point loss and want to get back on track. Their defense will shut down a bad Falcons offense and this game will be over by halftime.
Titans -4 @ Chiefs: The Titans have real playoff hopes but let a game slop away last week. Leading by two touchdowns, they allowed the Chargers to score twice in the last part of the 4th quarter and then lost in overtime. The Chiefs have lost 6 straight games are their season is over. They got blown out in a divisional game last week and coming home won’t matter much (2-5 record at home). The Titans don’t score too many points so the score won’t reflect what kind of game this is but the Chiefs don’t have much of a chance.
Seahawks -7.5 @ Panthers: The Panthers are 1-5 at home and the Seahawks are peaking at the right time. Winners of 5 straight, Seattle is in good position to get the 3rd seed in the NFC. With wins in the next two games they would also be able to rest their starters including Hasselbeck who has been banged up this year. Seattle won in blowout fashion last week and I would expect more of the same this week.
Packers -10 @ Rams: Marc Bulger might start for the Rams but it won’t matter. Green Bay’s defense is too good to allow the Rams to do much offensively regardless who their QB is. The Packers will be able to score and have had a habit of really beating up on the bad teams on their schedule. They also want to have at least the #2 seed in the playoffs to give Favre a week off.
Ravens -3.5 @ Dolphins: The Ravens played their hearts out against the Patriots two weeks ago and in my opinion they should have won the game. They had nothing left when the Colts visited and the game was over midway through the first quarter. This week they get the worst team in the league and do not want to be the first team to lose to the Dolphins. This might be a low scoring game but Miami’s offense won’t be able to move the ball against the Ravens defense, even if Baltimore is missing some of their key personnel.
Patriots -23.5 vs. Jets: Revenge is sweet. Belichick hates the Jets and he could play this game like it was a video game. He doesn’t need a punter or a place kicker. The Patriots could play the entire game going for fourth down and two-point conversions on their way to one of the most lopsided games in NFL history. The only chance the Jets have in this game is for there to be a lot of snow and strong winds to limit the Patriots passing game. I think the Jets will score between 10 and 21 points but give the Patriots at least 6 or 7 touchdowns. Prediction: Patriots 56 – Jets 21.
Saints – 3.5 vs. Cardinals: This game is a big game for both teams who have playoff hopes and each team will be without explosive players on offense. Both teams have also been disappointing this year and have lost games to inferior teams. I’m not counting the Saints out of playoff contention but still feel they will need help from Minnesota.
Jaguars +3.5 @ Pittsburgh: The Steelers are coming off of a bad loss to New England and will be missing some key players on defense. The Jaguars have played very well this year and recently played the Colts tough in a 3 point loss. Both teams are very physical and can run the ball. I think this game will have a playoff feel to it and will come down to a field goal. I am actually taking the Jaguars for the win in this game.
Bills +5.5 @ Browns: I have been riding the Browns for the past few weeks and I think they will win this week. I am taking the Bills with the points because for some reason, the Browns’ games seem to come down to the 4th quarter almost every week. After leading 17-6 midway through the 4th quarter against the Jets, the Browns gave up some late scores. I think they will be leading throughout this game but once again the game may end up closer than it should. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Browns lost but it seems that they find a way to pull out victories in these close games.
Colts -10.5 @ Raiders: The Colts are flying under the radar as everyone continues to watch the Patriots with admiration. In the meantime, the Colts remind me of the Patriots a few years ago when they flew under the radar. The Colts, in my opinion, are actually better suited to play playoff football because they run the ball well and have been great defensively this year. They could win a game in Foxboro if the conditions don’t allow Brady and Moss to hook up for big plays down field. Give me the Colts in a blowout.
Lions +10 @ Chargers: I don’t like either team. The Chargers are disappointing but have played better as of late. They had no business winning last week. They played a terrible game, Tomlinson showed up Rivers on the bench, and Norv Turner looks clueless on the sidelines. Bottom line is they won and are heading back to the playoffs. The Lions have been miserably in the 2nd half of the season although they played well for 3.5 quarters last week. I expect the Lions to be able to score and I expect Rivers to make some mistakes leading to Lions’ points. Maybe the Lions will get a late touchdown to cover the spread but I’m not laying more than a touchdown on the Chargers.
Cowboys -10.5 vs. Eagles: Dallas had a scare last week with Detroit but Romo led them back in the 4th quarter. That game was a huge game as it was another example of how poised Romo is under pressure late in games. He trusted his receivers (and tight end) and won the game for his team. The Eagles has a nice opening touchdown drive against the Giants but couldn’t move the ball at all afterwards. McNabb’s tenure in Philadelphia as well as the Eagles season is over. Dallas gets back on track.
Redskins +4.5 @ Giants: I don’t expect the Redskins to win this game with a backup QB but I do expect them to give 110% effort as they still have hopes of making the playoffs and this is a divisional game. They should have beaten the Giants in Washington earlier this year but the coaching staff did an awful job with calling plays on the goal line. The weather will be bad in NY and this game will be just as ugly. FG wins it late.
Bears +10 @ Vikings: The Bears’ season is over and they looked awful last week. The Vikings need this game to maintain a 1 game lead for the wild card. The crowd will be into it and Peterson will look to bounce back after his worst game of the season. I can see the Bears scoring late to cover but its unlikely. The Bears want to go home and the Vikings defense will shut them down.
