I cannot remember the last time I was less excited about a Super Bowl. First of all I should mention that I hate the Giants. I don’t have a problem with the Pats but who wants to see Boston win every “real” championship? Bottom line – I am not biased towards either team and I can actually go through this game with an open mind. We know one thing for sure – the Patriots will win this game. I am 100% certain of that so that is not the question here. The question is whether or not the game will be close and whether the Giants can cover the 12 point spread.
If I had to make a choice right now without thinking I would probably take the Giants with the points simply because the Patriots have not covered a spread in several weeks and the Giants have played extremely well as of late. With further analysis let me think in writing what the better bet would be.
Before we get to some question marks there are a few obvious aspects to this game:
1. Coaches: Belichick is the best coach in the league and one of the best of all time. Give him two weeks to prepare for a game, especially one against a team he has recently seen and its trouble his opponent. Coughlin has developed a relationship with his players and that has helped a great deal. The Patriots have a unique ability to make in-game adjustments so if things are not going to perfection they will be changed. The obvious edge goes to the Patriots.
2. Offensively, the Patriots will score a minimum of 31 points. They had 2 weeks to rest up (Brady’s ankle is much better now) and they are going back to warm weather. Cold/wind will not be a factor and that will allow them to throw the ball downfield to Moss and use 4 and 5 receiver sets to spread the field. The Giants have a young secondary and even if they can drop 7 guys to cover 4 or 5, I still do not see them keeping up with the many Patriots weapons. If the Pats get 11 possessions I would say they score on at least 5 or 6 of them. A range of 34-41 points is what I expect.
For the game to be close the Giants have to pretty much play a perfect game. Here are the questions that the Giants have to answer during the game:
1A. Can they rush Brady with 4 guys and actually get to him? Can they sack him, knock him down, make him rush his throws and make him move around in the pocket? In Week 17 they sacked Brady only one time and they did not do enough to distract him. This won’t be easy as Brady is rarely under pressure due to excellent protection from his offensive line as well as his ability to slide in the pocket. He is not easily distracted and has as much poise during big games than anyone in the history of the game.
1B. Can the Giants’ secondary keep Moss in front of them? In their last meeting Brady and Moss were each looking to break records on a deep pass down the sideline. Brady overthrew Moss on their first attempt. Almost as if to say the Giants have no chance of stopping it, they ran the exact same play immediately and it worked to perfection. Moss got behind the defense and the results were two new records. The secondary must take Moss out of the game like the Chargers and Jaguars did. Let Welker catch 8 yards slants and give Faulk the dump off pass. If the Giants could take Moss out of the game it will force the Patriots to be more methodical. Not to say the Patriots cannot play this way because they certainly can but the long touchdown pass or long 3rd down conversion is deflating for a defense.
2. Can the Giants score touchdowns rather than field goals? The Jaguars were able to move the ball against the Patriots but they could not score enough touchdowns. The Chargers played a very strong game two weeks and were able to get the ball inside the red zone several times but they simply could not get into the end zone. That game may have had a different outcome if they had been able to finish the drives. The Giants have to take advantage of all scoring opportunities with 7 points if they want to be in the game.
3. Can the Giants play a perfect game? First of all the Giants cannot turn the ball over at all this game. Secondly, one interesting point with regard to the previous paragraph is that in order to score touchdowns continuously, a team has to be aggressive. This means going for 4th down conversions when manageable, not being conservative with play-calling, and taking chances down the field. The question is will the Giants be able to play well in this manner? In their previous 3 playoff games this has not been the Giants’ style. They have been very conservative (except for the drive prior to halftime vs. Dallas) and have managed the games very carefully. In each of those games they did enough not to lose while their opponents lost the games. Playing a conservative style of football against an explosive team will not give you a chance to win – ask the Jaguars. The Giants were very aggressive in Week 17 and put themselves in position for an upset. Even though this style of play might lead to more mistakes, the Giants have no choice but to try it. Eli threw one interception late in the game and the Patriots took advantage.
4. Can the Giants dominate the Special Teams game? The Giants have done a great job returning kickoffs and punts and the Patriots have not done a great job covering kicks. I would assume Belichick addressed this and the Patriots will not give up a big play. From another angle, if Lawrence Tynes is called upon he has to come through 100% of the time. No excuses this week.
Whenever we try to make a case for an underdog, especially one that is really given no chance to win the first thing that is discussed is can they play the perfect game. If the Giants commit foolish penalties, turn the ball over, or miss scoring/defensive opportunities they will get blown out. But even if they do play a perfect game what happens if the Patriots played a perfect game as well? Realistically the Patriots have played several “perfect” games this season and are much more likely to have this type of game with two weeks rest and warm weather. The Patriots are so much more talented on both sides of the ball and if they play the way they are capable it doesn’t matter who lines up for the Giants or how well they execute.
If we follow the script of Week 17, the Giants came out aggressive; they put up points and took a nice lead. In order to win that game they needed to continue to play great for 60 minutes. They played great for 45 minutes and that was not enough. As soon as Manning threw an interception the game was over. I can see the Giants playing well for a portion of this game but I cannot see them match the perfection of the 2007 Patriots for 60 minutes. I understand the Patriots have given up points this year but that is because most of their games have been out of control. When they need to be, the Patriots defense is still very good. They will not give up a lot of big plays and they are extremely disciplined. Eli Manning will have to play better than he did in Week 17 to keep the Giants close. In that game he completed better than 67% of his passes for over 250 yards and 4 touchdowns. The one interception though killed them. There is no way Eli can match that performance.
The Patriots have the edge in every aspect of this game and the results will show. One thing we learned about Eli in this postseason is that when he doesn’t force throws he can be effective. He can manage a game and lead a drive at critical times in the game. He is not a machine like his brother or like Tom Brady. Those guys are supernatural with their abilities and Brady has unbelievable talent around him. The Patriots have been as close to perfect as you can get this year (I still say they should have lost to Baltimore) and there is no good reason to think the Giants can stop them. I understand that no one gave the Giants a chance to win in Dallas and certainly in the frigid Green Bay. This is not Dallas or Green Bay. New England is a machine of a football team, they are the best team I have seen in about 18 years of watching football. I’ve watched the tapes of games in the olden days and while it would be unfair to compare this team to teams in the 70’s, 80’s and even early 90’s because the game has dramatically changed, this Patriots team has dominated this season more than any other team has dominated any season in basically any sport. The Patriots will win this game and they will make history. By the time the 4th quarter rolls around the Giants will just appreciate getting to the Super Bowl.
I’ve been going with the Patriots all season long and despite the fact that they have not covered in a few weeks, this game will be different. They will not come out and take the Giants for granted like Dallas did. Brady won’t force crazy throws like Favre did. There will be analysts who try to make a case for the Giants to win or even keep the game close but that is only because it is part of their job. The Patriots will execute to perfection and even if the Giants can match the intensity and play their best game of the year, it will not be enough.
PATRIOTS 41 – GIANTS 20
