One thing that I continue to hear as NFL “experts” discuss the upcoming playoff games is how certain playoff teams are not exactly “playoff tested.”
I’ve heard that certain teams have beaten very few teams with winning records.
When you look back at the final standings, 12 teams have losing records and I would consider about 7-9 of those teams as being awful.
You could make the argument that the Giants only beat one team with a winning record.
However, they still won three divisional games and played the Patriots very well last Saturday night.
Therefore, in my opinion, everyone was tested about the same and that leaves no advantage or disadvantage, especially in the NFC.
What could play a factor is that teams such as the Redskins have basically been playing playoff (elimination) games for the last 3 weeks while teams like the Bucs, Seahawks, Packers and Cowboys have been coasting a bit.
Whether this plays any role remains to be seen as every year there are teams that rest star players and sometimes it matters while other times it does not.
Before I get to my predictions for these games and for the entire playoffs, I think the games this week should be very competitive, low scoring and close. I also would not be surprised if three of the road teams win outright (with the exception of the Titans).
Picks:
Redskins +3.5
Jaguars -2.5
Giants +3
Chargers -9.5
Redskins +3.5 @ Seahawks: The Redskins have won 4 consecutive “must win” games and Seattle has not played a meaningful game in over a month. Seattle has been inconsistent all season including a game they lost to the Panthers a few weeks ago. Todd Collins is managing the game extremely well and Portis has been running as well as he has all season. Seattle has been trouble running the ball as Alexander has not been able to get on track this season and the Redskins have been shutting down the run lately. Hasselbeck has shown that he can win playoff games and this game will fall squarely on his shoulders. The home field advantage in Seattle is also tremendous. Rain is expected and that will keep this a close game but the Redskins will carry their momentum into their third match up with Dallas next week. Redskins 23 – Seahawks 20
Jaguars -2.5 @ Steelers: In Week 15 the Jaguars went into Pittsburgh and dominated the game. The final score only had the Jags winning by 7 but that did not tell the story. The Jaguars lost only 4 times this season before resting their players last week including twice to the Colts, once in New Orleans, and Week 1 vs. the Titans. Garrard has been very consistent in managing games and not trying to do too much while his running game has thrived with MJD and Fred Taylor. Usually a running team, the Steelers will need Roethlisberger to be great because Will Parker is out due to injury. DE Aaron Smith is also out with an injury. Davenport will try to carry the load against a stout defensive line and I don’t think that will produce much. It will be very hard for the Jaguars to win a second time in Pittsburgh and I think the Steelers will keep the game close but the Jaguars are just better and are more physical team right now. I think they win and get a chance to really prove themselves when they travel to New England next week. Jaguars 27 – Steelers 23
Giants +3 @ Bucs: I’ve gone back and forth on this game all week. I thought that the spread would be Bucs 2-3 points and I think this game will be a back and forth, low scoring game. Both teams have solid defenses and both offenses will look to establish the run. The Bucs will look to shut down the big pass play and try to force Manning into making mistakes. The Giants will try to put pressure on Garcia with their front 4 but Garcia is mobile enough to escape the rush. Garcia 2-0 in his career in the playoffs vs. the Giants and is a winner. Eli Manning is the X-factor in this game. He could be as good as he was last week and the Giants will have no problem. If not, the game will be very close and come down to the 4th quarter. I think the game will be won by 3 or less so I would take the 3 points but I don’t trust Manning and I would have a lot of confidence in Garcia if I needed a late drive to win. Bucs 19 – Giants 17
Chargers -9.5 vs. Titans: Kerry Collins led the Titans past the Colts last week and now they go on the road again to San Diego for a rematch of their Week 14 overtime game in Tennessee. In that game the Titans outplayed the Chargers until midway through the 4th quarter when San Diego erased a 14 point lead before winning on a late TD run by Tomlinson. Philip Rivers is not good and the Chargers will feature Tomlinson early and often. The Titans run defense might be able to keep them in the game early but they will have trouble scoring against and very athletic Chargers defense that is playing much better lately. The Titans are also all banged up and will be without certain key players. In my opinion they do not belong in the playoffs anyway. Chargers 27 – Titans 13
Playoff Predictions:
Divisional Round:
Colts over Chargers
Patriots over Jaguars
Packers over Bucs
Cowboys over Redskins
Championship Game:
Colts over Patriots (I’m going to be different because if it’s windy/snowy, I truly believe the Colts can win this game. Also, I think the Patriots have shown some vulnerability in recent weeks.)
Cowboys over Packers
Super Bowl:
Colts over Cowboys
