World Series Preview:

There are many different factors that go into this series.

Starting Pitching:
The Phillies have Cole Hamels at the top and he will need to pitch on short rest twice (Games 1, 4, 7) for the Phillies to have a chance. Bretty Myers is good but is inconsistent. The Rays have Jamie Shields, Kazmir and Garza to counter. Kazmir doesn't go deep into games but will neutralize the lefties of the Phillies.
Edge: RAYS

Hitting:
Rollins, Utley and Howard are some of the most dangerous hitters in the game. Rollins sets the table and the other guys drive him in. If BJ Upton and Longoria stay hot they can carry the Rays offensively.
Edge: PHILLIES

Bullpen:
Brad Lidge has not blown a save in a long time and the Rays don't have a closer. Before Game 5 of the ALCS the Rays bullpen was fantastic. After that they have been a ticking time bomb waiting to explode. I don't know who will close for them (should be David Price) and getting to the closer will be difficult. One advantage they do have (especially in NL parks) is multiple left handers to match up with lefties.
Edge: PHILLIES

Home field advantage: Obviously goes to the Rays who have been fantastic at home all year. I don't think the DH factor will make much of a difference. It's not like you have to play David Ortiz at first base.

X-Factors:
Rays: (a) lefty relievers to face the Phillies lefties.
(b) David Price. I've been raving about this guy for the last 12 hours and I'll continue to do so until he proves otherwise. If he can be effective as a closer or give an inning+ out of the pen he poses a threat to the Phillies. His control looked good last night, he was calm in a tremendously pressurized situation, and he is another lefty that can face Utley and Howard.

Phillies: Long layoff. We've seen this before. Last year the Rockies and the year before that the Tigers had long layoffs before the World Series began. Each of those teams came out flat and lost any chance of winning the first game (maybe first 2 games). We'll see how this affects the Phillies bats.

3 Question to be answered:
1. Can the Rays bullpen get the job done?
2. Will the long layoff affect the Phillies?
3. Can Upton and Longoria out-slug Utley and Howard?

Prediction:
To those questions I say yes, no, and yes.
I expect these games to be very well played. Both teams play good defense, especially in the outfield, and have very good pitching. As most games do, this series will come down to pitching. I think the Rays have better starting pitching, home field advantage and are riding a magical season.

Furthermore, look at the 2 leagues. The Rays have played FAR SUPERIOR competition both in the division, league and playoffs. They outlasted the Yankees and Red Sox for the division. They overcame a major loss in Game 5. They were mentally tested in Game 7. The Phillies are good but the Rays are better.

RAYS IN 6

The Rays are in the World Series???

I admit I am shocked. Down 7-0 in game 5, the Red Sox pulled off one of the most improbable comebacks in history. 7th inning, 2 outs, a couple of "meaningless" singles, and then an Ortiz 3-run HR. At that point I said it was over.....not just the game, but the season. I've seen this before. I big Ortiz HR or a couple of "meaningless" hits catapulting a desperate team to a WS victory. I said the Red Sox would not lose a game the rest of the postseason. How do you recover from being on the cusp of the World Series and then completely choking? I didn't think they could do it.

Before Game 5 one might say that the Red Sox would win that game, but then come back to Tampa and lose in Game 6. If they were able to force a 7th game they would be in total control because the Rays are too young to respond to that type of game. That script was playing out pretty until the middle innings last night. First of all, Matt Garza was GREAT! He pitched late into the game, gave up only a couple of hits and shut down the Red Sox offense.

As the 8th inning began to unfold - signs for the Sox began to emerge. The great Yankees teams had it too. Things start to go your way, the other team feels the pressure and before you know it, the better team takes the lead. The Rays made an error on the lead off hitter and had to go to the pen. The Red Sox got another hit to make it first and 2nd and now it was inevitable. Who was going to get the big hit? Coming up were Pedroia (the league MVP), Ortiz, Youkilis and JD Drew. The bases were loaded and Drew was up - the same guy who hit what Bill Simmons calls the "$14 Million Grand Slam." The same guy who hit a 2-run HR as well as the game winning double in Game 5.

The Rays seemed to have no answer. But then the September call-up, future ace and Cy Young award winner David Price announced his presence on the major league scene. Price is a hard throwing left hander who throws 95 and has a great slider (Randy Johnson???) and apparently is a mentally tough pitcher. How many pitchers, let alone rookies, would be as calm as he was and be able to get the 4 biggest outs in team history? Not many. Price was sensational. He got Drew to strike out and breezed through the 9th after only yielding a walk.

Preview of World Series - next....

Week 7 Recap

Who is good this year? Which quarterbacks are really good? Which are Hall of Famers? These were some of the questions I heard yesterday as I'm watching some really crappy games.

It's hard to say it but the league is really bad. For the most part, the teams are mediocre or flat out horrible. There are two great quarterbacks in the league - 1 is out for the year and 1 is coming off two knee surgeries. Favre is a HOFer but his prime has passed (see Jets loss at Raiders). If I had to pick right now, I guess I would say Pittsburgh is the best team in the league. They won at Jacksonville and home against Philly. They have played solid defense and Roethlisberger has played very well. All this without a running back (Moore dominating the Bengals doesn't count).

Let's see what we learned yesterday:
First and foremost, Dallas is in BIG trouble. Romo is out and I thought Brad Johnson would at least be serviceable. He was anything but. Even with T.O., Barber, Witten and Roy Williams they could not muster any offense against the lowly Rams. More importantly, their defense absolutely stinks. They have no corner backs (injured or suspended), they have no safety (injured for the year) and yet they traded future draft picks for a receiver??? I don't get it.

Don't even think about calling the Giants the best team. They beat the Redskins in a game you can toss out the window. They also beat the Rams, Bengals (OT), Seahawks (who have no team right now) and the 49ers (who love giving the ball away - thanks JTO). This are not exactly your top of the line competition. The Giants got BLOWN OUT against the Browns! That's sad. What's worse is that Eli has not looked good at all this year. The Giants have a good defense and a solid running game. After that - not good.

How many inconsistent teams do we have?
Chargers, Packers, Saints, Jets (among others). These teams all have playoff potential but seem not to show up in some games. Very Strange.

Coming back to earth?
Titans' next 5 games: Colts, Packers, @ Bears, @ Jags, Jets. We'll know if they are for real after this stretch. If they can go 3-2 I'll buy them.

Set up for a long run:
Buffalo - After a 41-17 drubbing in Arizona and the bye, the Bills are set up nicely. Their schedule: @ Miami, Jets, @ NE, Cleveland, @ KC, 49ers, Miami. 4-3 in these games will put them at 9-4 and in good position to win the division.

*MNF - Can Moose Cassel can move the ball against a bad Denver defense? I expect a solid Denver offense to move the ball well against an aging Patriots defense. I'll take Denver 27 - Pats 23.

Horrible Picking

Wow have I been wrong lately.

My World Series prediction of Cubs over Angels went out the window. Cubs were swept by the Dodgers in a series where they were over matched in every facet of the game.

Jon Lester is making a name for himself. He won Game 4 of the World Series last year and was dominant in Game 1 vs. Anaheim. Tonight he pitches against Lackey for the right to advance. I was sure the Red Sox would have finished the series last night but the Angels showed some fight and prolonged the series. I'll be rooting for them.

Onto football:
Biggest surprise - Tennessee. I thought the Titans would win 5 games all year, not in the first 5 weeks. The Redskins deserve some votes as well, especially after a horrendous Week 1 effort. They have pulled together and have played extremely good football. Peter King pointed out that they already completed their 3 road games within the division.

Biggest disappointment: Hard to say because I have so many. The Colts were lucky to win yesterday and should be 1-3. The Chargers have looked awful at times. They came back against Oakland but could not do the same against Miami. The Vikings have one offensive player. The Jaguars don't have any.

I think things will start to take form soon within the divisions. The Patriots are still the class of the AFC East although the Jets are not far behind. The Bills are back to backup QB JP Losman now and got crushed yesterday at Arizona.

The Colts at 2-2 are not done yet. Tennessee has shown it has the best defense in the league but its offense is still suspect. I don't think they can keep up with the Colts. The Steelers are clearly the class of the AFC North. The Broncos have been impressive in the West but gave up 33 points to KC 2 weeks ago. That defense won't help them against SD.

In the NFC, I love the Saints to win the division. They should have another win under their belt (missed 43 yard FG to win vs Denver) and Brees is on track for league MVP. No one seems to want to win the NFC West and everyone is in the hunt for the East. In the North the Vikings have no offense and the Packers lost at home to Atlanta. Chicago has played very well but I would pick GB to pull ahead soon (assuming Rodgers stays healthy).

2008 MLB Postseason

Playoff Predictions:

National League:
Cubs - have been the best team in the NL the entire season and there is no reason why they shouldn't be in the World Series as the NL representative.
Dodgers - dangerous with Manny but their pitching is very suspect. I'll be rooting for the Dodgers because Manny is entertaining and I might as well root for Torre (even though I was for him getting fired from NY).
Phillies - could compete with the Cubs because of their potent offense and Cole Hamels.
Brewers - Sabathia will not be ready for Game 1 which means they are not winning the series. Sheets is hurt and the bullpen is not that good.
NLDS Predictions:
Cubs over Dodgers in 4
Phillies over Brewers in 5
NLCS:
Cubs over Phillies in 6

American League:
Angels - best and most complete team in baseball all year. They got what they needed (a bat) in Mark Texeira, have excellent starting pitching and the best bullpen in baseball. Their playoff nemesis is Boston but they are 9-1 vs. the Red Sox this year.
Red Sox - Beckett isn't starting until Game 3 and is not 100%. Offense is not the same without Manny.
Rays - showed great resiliency in September by holding of the Red Sox for the Division. Were great at home this year and have two very good top of the rotation starting pitchers.
Twins/White Sox - Both teams are hot and will be good competition for the Rays. Experience will help.
ALDS Predictions:
Angels over Red Sox in 5
Twins/White Sox over Rays in 5
ALCS:
Angels over Twins/White Sox in 6

WORLD SERIES:
CUBS over ANGELS in 7

Logic tells me that the Angels are the better team and will win the championship. However, we've seen over the past few years that the best team does not always win the championship (see 2007 football Giants). I just have a feeling about the Cubs this year. In the last few years the White Sox and Red Sox won the World Series. If they can do it, so can the Cubs.

METS - My Entire Team Sucks

Did you enjoy the "Shea Goodbye Ceremony" after the MUTS lost and during the tine the Brewers clinched the Wild Card? I know I did!!!

What an absolute disgrace. During the last three years of Shea Stadium, 3 games stand out:
1. The Mets all but locked up a World Series berth after Endy Chavez made one of the greatest catches/double plays in MLB history. The memory: Beltran striking out looking to end the game.
2. Glavine gives up 7 runs in the first inning - MUTS lose the division on the last day of the season.
3. MUTS atrocious bullpen gives up back to back HR and they lose a playoff berth on the last day of the season...AGAIN! How is that even possible?

I know the MUTS bullpen is bad but the offense deserves just as much of the blame. They could not hit with runners on base during the final homestand and went out quietly into the night yesterday. Sounds familiar.

I hope MUTS fans like Manny Ramirez/Bobby Abreau as their corner outfielder. And guess who just got quite wealthy? 4 letters: K-ROD.

NFL - Week 4

Did not make my picks this week but a few thoughts:

HUGE win on the road for Redskins. I knocked this team after their Week 1 disgrace but they have bounced back nicely and have turned it on offensively. Dallas' secondary got beat several times yesterday and Romo threw another bad interception.

I know they played the Rams but after trailing 14-6, the Bills just turned on the jets and won in a rout to improve to 4-0 for the first time since the early 90's.

Speaking of Jets, before the season I predicted they would be 1-2 going into yesterday's game and it would be a must win game for them going into the bye week. Not only did the Jets win but Favre showed signs of brilliance throwing 6 TD passes. More importantly, if he shows he can do that the team will rally around him. The schedule after the bye week gets very light and it looks bright for the Jets.

4-0 for the Titans who own the best defense in the league. Kerry Collins is a big improvement over Young and Chris Johnson is a stud rookie (rookie of the year?)

The 3-1 (should be 1-3) Broncos have a horrible defense and allowed 33 points to the lowly Chiefs (and 198 yards on the ground to Larry Johnson). The Broncos offense is dangerous with Marshall but they don't have a running game and the defense flat out stinks. They were lucky to beat the Chargers and Saints and deserve to be 1-3.

Drew Brees is going to throw for 4,500 (maybe 5,000 yards) and be the league MVP.

Welcome back to earth Aaron Rodgers. The GB offensively line didn't help out as Rodgers was pressured all day long. The defense didn't help him either.

Big game tonight for Baltimore. With all the injuries to the Steelers i think Baltimore can win even though they rarely do in Pittsburgh.

NFL - Week 3 Picks

A very important week for some 0-2 teams with high hopes for this season. The Jaguars have a huge, tough game at Indianapolis and are in danger of falling to 0-3. The Browns are in Baltimore and are also in danger of dropping to 0-3. The 0-2 Vikings have benched starter Tarvaris Jackson and Adrian Peterson is questionable. Two other big games on the schedule include the Steelers at the Eagles and Cowboys at Packers. Roethlisberger is slightly injured but will surely play and the Eagles are looking very good. The Cowboys did not show up defensively last week and face the red hot Packers.

Picks:
Texans +5
*Cardinals +3
Panthers +3.5
Falcons -5.5
*Patriots -12.5
Raiders +9.5
Bengals +13.5
Bucs +3
Broncos -5.5
49ers -4
Rams +9.5
Colts -4.5
*Browns +2.5
*Eagles -3
Cowboys -3
*Jets +9

*Best Bets

A GREAT week 2 in the NFL

I spend just about every Sunday (depending on holidays) sitting in front of the TV for 10+ hours. I watch bits and pieces from every game and follow all of the action on 2 computers. In many years of repeating this practice, I cannot remember a better NFL Sunday (and Monday night) than this past weekend. Thoughts on a few of them....

Peyton Manning is clearly not himself. His throws are slightly off and he seems to be forcing a bit. He can't really be blamed, though. After off-season surgery, he is playing without several offensive lineman, without Dallas Clark and Harrison is passed his prime. Throw in the fact that on Sunday Adam Vinatieri missed a chip shot field goal when the Colts were coming back and they have been getting nothing out of Addai. The Vikings had a chance at home to step on the Colts' throat and put the game away. Peterson was a beast in the first half but anytime the Vikings get 3rd down with more than 5 yards to go - they might as well bring on the punting unit. Tarvaris Jackson stinks and this team isn't going anywhere unless he figures out how to play the position. With the Colts still in the game Manning went to work.

Before the season I thought Aaron Rodgers was going to feel the pressure and his performance would suffer. I couldn't be more wrong. To this point Rodgers is probably the best QB in the league. He has been very accurate and has been able to put the ball in the endzone despite a shaky running game so far. Granted, the quality of teams played is not high but you can't fault Rodgers for that. In the game on Sunday the Packers led by 21, than trailed in the 4th quarter before winning by 23 points. Rodgers was very impressive on the go ahead drive and his performance, and the game itself, should not be overlooked....until you discuss the Broncos game!

The Chargers came out flat and trailed 21-3 in this game before coming back and taking a 38-31 lead. I have been very impressed with Jay Cutler who is clearly the best QB in the AFC West. Denver's offense has been flying and Brandon Marshall had a career game with 18 receptions (2nd to T.O. - 20 in 1 game for the 49ers). The last minute of this game was incredible, though, simply because of a bad call. Cutler clearly fumbled but Denver was given a 2nd life to TIE the game with a touchdown and extra point. I love the call that Shannahan made. Obviously it is unconventional but if you tie the game with an extra point, you leave your fate to a coin toss. If you have a chance to win the game by getting 2 yards and the 2 point conversion
wouldn't you take that? I'm surprised more coaches don't try this (probably because if you fail you get killed in the media). Shannahan has guts and it paid off.

How about the 49ers!?!? J.T. O'Sullivan threw for over 300 yards; the first time a 49ers QB has done this in over 5 years. The defense gave up points but many of them were garbage (49ers blocked a punt but Seattle picked up loose ball and picked up 25 yards for first down and scored on the drive). Maybe the 49ers will be competitive. It would probably take only 7 or 8 wins to win the division anyway. Despite Seattle not having any receivers, I think the 49ers comeback win, on the road in that building (where Seattle never loses) is a big one.

Finally, the shootout in the first half between the Eagles and Cowboys. I was not impressed with Romo early or the Cowboys offensive line. Romo was pressured all night and Barber had way too many carries for 1 yards or less. The Eagles O-line on the other hand was phenomenal. McNabb had all day to throw and he picked apart Dallas' defense. If not for a botched hand-off the Eagles would have stolen a game at Dallas. For now, these two teams have separated themselves from the NFC teams. Maybe put the Giants and Packers in there as well but I'll wait for them to play some better competition.

Fantasy: In my first year playing in a Fantasy NFL league.......
I went up against Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, and the Packers defense - all with fantastic performances. Unfortunately for that team, I got tremendous production of Seattle's defense (defensive TD, 8 sacks), Anthony Gonzalez (clearly the #2 WR on the Colts), my horses (Barber/Romo - 25 points each), and the guy I still want to trade - Santana Moss (over 30 points). My dominating performance leaves me alone in first place (4-0) and as the overall points leader for the season!

Don't expect Week 3 to provide similar results but if you're not watching the games, SHAME ON YOU!

NFL - Week 2 Picks

Before Week 2 picks, a couple of thoughts/shockers and season changing injuries. It looks like the Boston dominance is coming to an end. Brady is arguably the best QB in the league not to mention reigning MVP. The last time the Patriots lost their #1 starting QB the backup finished 11-3 and won the Super Bowl. Don't expect that to happen a second straight time, although I do not think the Patriots will just fold. I still believe they can win the division (I do not believe in the Jets or Bills yet) due to the absolute joke of a schedule.

Disappointments: 1. Peyton Manning and the Colts looked awful on both sides of the ball. I expect the offense to turn it around but which Colts defense shows up this year? 2. The Chargers couldn't finish the game and got off to another slow start. At Denver this week is not a guaranteed win either. 3. Jacksonville could not move the ball and looked far from the team everyone thinks they CAN be this year.

Impressive: The Bills dominated every aspect of the game against Seattle but Denver gets the nod for most impressive team in Week 1. The Raiders were horrible and the rookies didn't do much but not the tune of 41-7. Cutler was sharp for Denver and Eddie Royal is a player.

Picks:
Bengals -1
*Packers -3
*Saints +1
Raiders +3.5
Bears +3
Rams +8.5
Bills +5.5
*Colts -2
49ers +7
*Falcons +7
Dolphins +6.5
Broncos+1.5
Browns +6
Texans -4.5
Eagles +7

*Best Bets

NFL PICKS - WEEK 1

NFL is finally back. Last season left such a sour taste in my mouth with the fluke Giants putting together a miraculous run. They needed (1) a drop from Patrick Crayton (and Jessica Simpson perhaps???); (2) Brett Favre to literally freeze on the field; (3) the Patriots to completely overlook them; and (4) the luckiest escape/catch in NFL history to squeeze out a 17-14 Super Bowl win. As previously stated, I believe the Giants are still a mediocre team at best. I still do not have confidence in Eli and I think they will have a let down year.

Giants -4 (I had the Giants (see WendySue Fanpool/Yahoo Pickem)
Rams +7.5
Texans +6.5
Lions -3
*Seahawks +1
Bengals -1.5
*Jaguars -3
*Jets -3
Patriots -16.5
*Saints -3
Chargers -9
49ers +2.5
*Cowboys -5.5
Colts -9.5
Vikings +2.5
Raiders +3

*Best Bets

Rams + 6.5 @ Eagles: Truth is I really like the Eagles to win this game. After watching the offenses perform (or not perform) last night I'm not ready to lay that many points to a team without any receivers.

Texans +6.5 @ Steelers: The Texans might surprise people this year because they have potential to score and the defense has improved. The Steelers won't lose a home opener but this game could be close.

Lions -3 @ Falcons: Until the Falcons win a game this year pick against them. This is a good place for rookie Matt Ryan to start his career but the Lions can still score in bunches.

Seahawks +1 @ Bills: Trend of taking road teams continues. If this game were later in the year when cold outside I might reconsider. The Bills will be a good team this year but Seattle is always overlooked.

Bengals -1.5 @ Ravens: The Ravens are starting rookie Joe Flacco (like Ryan - good place to start career against a bad defense) and their defense is aging. While I don't like the Bengals too much this season the Ravens are in for an even longer year.

Jaguars -3 @ Titans: If this game were played later in the year the Jags would be favored by more than a touchdown. This line makes no sense to me. The Jaguars are going to have a great year and I am very down on Vince Young and the Titans.

Jets -3 @ Dolphins: The Jets should be able to come out and really control this game. Many expect the Jets to contend for the playoffs this year and a loss to the lowly Dolphins before they play NE and SD in weeks 2 and 3 would be devastating.

Patriots -16.5 vs. Chiefs: I would be slightly concerned about the Pats covering this big a line if Larry Johnson is healthy and plays well. I also do not think the Pats will be looking to blow teams out this year. Rather, the main focus is on winning and staying fresh. Despite all that, I cannot go against the Patriots in week 1 at home against a bad team. The Pats will put up 30+ points and cover.

Saints -3 vs. Bucs: Big divisional game right off the bat. The Saints were very disappointing last year and will get off to a much better start this season.

Chargers -9 vs. Panthers: This spread is very high but without Steve Smith, the Panthers do not have many weapons this week.

49ers +2.5 vs. Cardinals: By some miracle, the 49ers actually beat the Cards in the opener the last 2 seasons. Now they have an offense (maybe) to go along with a good defense.

Cowboys -5.5 @ Browns: The Cowboys should have a field day offensively against the Browns defense. This game could get into a shootout but the Cowboys pass defense will be much improved if Adam Jones' return is successful.

Colts -9.5 vs. Bears: Peyton Manning will not be rusty despite missing the pre-season. He knows how to prepare for games and the Bears cannot score anyway. Game will be over at halftime.

Vikings +2.5 @ Packers: Aaron Rodgers in his first start at home on a Monday night. He'll be too nervous this week against a very strong Vikings defense. Expect a close, low scoring game.

Raiders +3 vs. Broncos: I like the Raiders at home in night games. They will probably split with Denver this year which each team winning its home game. Debut of McFadden will excite the Raider fans and it will be a tough game for the Broncos.

NFL - Team by Team

PREDICTIONS FOR PLAYOFFS AND STANDINGS in separate posts below....

Patriots: Best player + best coach + disappointing Super Bowl = watch out this year.
Jets: Must go 2-2 before the bye. Will contend for wild card spot if Favre of 07 is back.
Bills: Mediocre schedule will help but not enough talent.
Dolphins: Ronnie Brown still hurting....team has no talent.

Steelers: Toughest schedule in football (Away: Eagles, Jags, Pats; Home: Colts, Chargers).
Browns: Upgraded the defense but secondary is still suspect to big plays. Offense will carry them.
Bengals: Health is main factor for offense. Horrific defense will cost this team some games.
Ravens: Aging defense and no offense....long year ahead.

Jaguars: Strong defense and efficient offense might be able to finally overtake Colts.
Colts: If Manning is 80% or better this team is one of the best in the league.
Texans: Tough schedule and not enough talent to compete this year.
Titans: Young is a horrible passer and the team has no offense. Defense won't win many games.

Chargers: Rivers played better than expected in 2007 playoffs and defense is fantastic. If Merriman and LT stay healthy they could win the Super Bowl.
Raiders: Will be better than last year and McFadden could be this year's Peterson. Defense is solid. If Russel plays well this team could win up to 9 games.
Broncos: Mediocre team with fairly light schedule. Cutler needs to be more consistent.
Chiefs: Larry Johnson needs to carry this team but they have no QB and a poor defense.

Cowboys: Will bounce back after disappointing playoffs. Enough talent to win the Super Bowl.
Eagles: Another bounce back team IF McNabb and Westbrook stay healthy.
Giants: Loss of both defensive ends this year will be devastating. Will contend early but drop off late as schedule toughens.
Redskins: Always look better on paper than they perform. This year they don't even look so good on paper.

Vikings: Easy schedule 2nd half of the season will propel them into the playoffs. Defense looks strong and Peterson is a stud. Only question mark is QB.
Packers: Way too much pressure on Aaron Rodgers. Defense is good and team has weapons on offense. If Rodgers plays well they could make playoffs ahead of the Bucs.
Bears: No QB, again, and defense is older. Hester is a playmaker but will he succeed with Kyle Orton throwing him the ball? Probably not.
Lions: Losing Martz will crush the offense despite nice talent. Defense still stinks.

Saints: Were disappointing last year and will bounce back. Reggie Bush will have a breakout year and Shockey (although not a top TE) will have a career year.
Bucs: Garcia is a winner and defense is still strong. Garcia's health is major concern and Bucs wanted to get Favre to replace him.
Panthers: Will win games due to easy schedule but Steve Smith is out and defense not as good.
Falcons: Rebuilding.....first pick in next year's draft will help.

Seahawks: Easy schedule until Week 13 and 14. If Hasselbeck plays well they can win 12 games.
49ers: Defense is much improved over last 2 years. If Martz can do now what he did for Rams and Lions, niners can compete with Seattle. Maybe next year.
Cardinals: Always disappointing. Tough schedule doesn't help.
Rams: Defense is poor and O-line is a question. If Bulger, Holt , and Jackson perform to capability the Rams can be a surprise. First 7 games are brutal but schedule gets lighter.

NFL PREDICTIONS - PLAYOFFS

Wild Card Round
Jaguars over Browns
Colts over Steelers
Vikings over Bucs
Seahawks over Eagles

Divisional Round
Patriots over Colts
Jaguars over Chargers
Cowboys over Seahawks
Vikings over Saints

Championship Game
Patriots over Jaguars
Cowboys over Vikings

Super Bowl
Cowboys over Patriots

NFL PREDICTIONS - STANDINGS

AFC
East	Win	Loss
Patriots	14	2
Jets	9	7
Bills	8	8
Dolphins	2	14
South
Jags	12	4
Colts	12	4
Texans	6	10
Titans	5	11
North
Steelers	10	6
Browns	10	6
Bengals	8	8
Ravens	5	11
West
Chargers	13	3
Raiders	7	9
Broncos	7	9
Chiefs	3	13
NFC
East
Cowboys	12	4
Eagles	10	6
Giants	9	7
Redskins	7	9
South
Saints	11	5
Bucs	9	7
Panthers	7	9
Falcons	2	14
North
Vikings	11	5
Packers	8	8
Bears	6	10
Lions	6	10
West
Seahawks	10	6
49ers	7	9
Cardinals	6	10
Rams	4	12

Yankees in 2009

As the Yankees goes quietly into the night I decided to devote one last article to this disgrace of a team.

Back in May, I noticed too many flaws with the 2008 Yankees and predicted they would not make the postseason. It was not being pessimistic; rather, it was looking at the team, the injuries, and the manner in which the team carried itself. The signs were evident from many different angles.

In June, Joba was converted to a starter and the front office began to show signs of panic. Moves were made that did not necessarily make sense at the time. For one, I think Joba is going to be a great starter. The debate of whether or not he should be groomed into the next closer is a good one but assuming Joba can become a true ace, I agree with the move - just not the timing. Injured now for probably the rest of the season, Joba is not stretched out properly and will most likely have an innings limit next year. The same could be said for Hughes who likely will not be in the rotation if Pettitte, Mussina, Wang, Joba and CC Sabathia are in it.

That brings me to my next point. Everyone can look back now and say they should have gotten Santana for a bunch of prospects. Hughes could become the next Roger Clemens but the key word is COULD. He might not become anything if he continues to get hurt year after year. The Yankees theoretically could have traded Hughes, Melky, Kennedy and another mid-level prospect for Santana which is essentially just Hughes straight up the lefty stud. Melky is a huge bust. If any team saw value in him the Yankees missed an opportunity to get rid of him. He ism at best, a .250 hitter without power. Yes, he can throw and he is an above average fielder. Yes, Damon stinks in the field. But with the offense underachieving this year, carrying a bat like Melky (a guy who belongs in A or AA ball) is useless.

Despite the lack of pitching depth and the lack of a quality bullpen (bullpen has been good for the most part but you can't trust them in big games) the Yankees pitching has been serviceable for most of the season. Ponson & Rasner have pitched well in some games (horrible in others) but they have certainly given the team a chance to win. What's odd is that the team just cannot score with RISP. Looking down the lineup, most guys have decent averages but none can hit in the clutch. Specifically A-Rod, Giambi and Cano. It makes no sense that this lineup, even with the injuries, has scored 2 or fewer runs in more than 1/3 of their games.

This season can really be blamed on a lot of factors. Obviously the lack of hitting, injuries, front office mistakes, etc. The bottom line is the Yankees are mostly a bunch of overpaid, underachieving, players. Credit goes to Mike Mussina who has been unreal this year. Aside from that, no one is having a career year and just about everyone is playing below their career averages. It's a shame to watch as most of the time the team shows no life.

Look for CC Sabathia next year and either Manny or Texeira. I don't see the Yankees keeping Giambi or Abreu for that matter (not for $16M). You can bank on CC being here though. It's going to cost about $150M over 7 years or so but they won't have a choice.

Good night baseball season.....BRING ON THE 2008 NFL SEASON!!!

Yankees Ownership - As Dumb as it Gets

Last night marked phase 2 of the Joba Chamberlain debate. Joba made his first start and only managed 2.1 innings on 62 pitches (65 pitch limit). While he was not sharp with his pitches (30 balls) I believe he has the makeup to be a great pitcher either in the pen or as a starter.

Here is the issue. IF Joba is a true ace - meaning he can go out once every 5 days, give 7 strong innings, win 20+ games, and start MORE than 1 game in the playoffs - I would definitely agree that he should start. The one catch to that is the Yankees front office MUST do their part to find a real setup guy who could potentially fill the closer role in 3 years.

On the other hand, if Joba is not capable of being a "true ace," he should remain in the pen and be groomed like Rivera was in 1996. He should be a 7th and 8th inning pitcher to maximize his use and all of the sudden, Yankee fans would not have to watch Farnsworth, Ramirez, Hawkins, Veras, Ohlendorf, or any other garbage the Yankees throw out there in big spots.

Of course things can change but at this point we know several things about Joba for sure. Obviously he has amazing stuff. More importantly for a NY pitcher, he has the makeup to succeed in the Big Apple. He shows toughness and tremendous emotion on the mound. Lastly, the fans absolutely love him. Unless he completely blows up over the next year or so, the fans are not going to boo him like we do for Farnsworth. The fans are behind him and he feeds off the energy.

The other certainty is that Joba is a strikeout pitcher who will throw a lot of pitches. I think he threw a lot of balls last night out of the strike zone because his adrenaline was running on overdrive. Because he throws so hard, batters foul off a lot of his pitches. Last year a large portion of batters faced struck out on check swings on his slider. This year, hitters learned to take that pitch which more often than not will drop out of the strike zone. This will lead to higher pitch counts. With the way the Yankees baby these young pitchers (and he will be considered a young pitcher for the next 4 -5 years) he will not have many games where he throws more than 95-100 pitches. That translates into 6+ innings. What happens to the 7th and 8th now? The Yankees need to go out and fill those shoes.

Last year Joba was transitioned to the bullpen because they Yankees could not rely on Farnsworth. All of the sudden as they move Joba back into the rotation they do trust Farnsworth? Do they trust anyone else besides Mo? Do they have a clue what is going on this season? They are 2 games under .500 and because the Indians and Tigers have faltered, they do have a shot at the Wild Card (I do think the Rays will be good but the Yankees could catch them). At this point the Yankees have Joba, Hughes, Mussina, Kennedy set up to be in the rotation (assuming healthy) for the 2nd half of the season. Not one of these guys (whether on pitch count or capability) will give the Yankees length. The bullpen is extremely important this year and the Yankees have only 1 pitcher that can pitch in big games. This is a major problem.

The other problem is if they do make the playoffs.....let's give game 3 to Joba. In that case he gets to pitch in potentially 1 of the 5 games. For the MORONS who say "would you rather have Joba pitch 200 innings or 75 innings...." let me ask you this. Would you rather have Joba have an effect on 60 games or 30 games? And in the postseason, Joba could potentially pitch in ALL 5 games.

If I were the Yankees, I would have Joba do exactly what Rivera did in 1996. Have him pitch the 7th and 8th innings this year, stretch out his innings limit and if you need a starter next year, he could fill that role (just to test him out). Over the off season the Yankees would have to find relief and a true setup man. Try him out as a starter over the course of an entire season. Have a plan and stick with it. Stop making rash decisions that screw up the season. The current Yankees roster has no relief pitching and starting pitching that averages the fewest pitches/innings per game in the entire MLB (fact - around 86 pitches per start). This will prove to be their downfall this season. What happens in the future remains to be seen.

Where is the offense???

I understand A-rod and Posada are out but do we really expect that these 2 players are going to contribute to 4-5 runs per game? The Yankees offense has been anemic this season as they have scored 3 or fewer runs in 17 of their 40 games. They have won some of them but when the offense struggles like they are now it puts a ton of pressure on the pitching staff.

The Yankees are not out of the race but I maintain my statement that they are DONE. The Red Sox have played poorly and the Rays are in first place this late in the season for the first time in their history. But the Yankees are just not good. I could also tell you that the Pirates or Rangers are not out of it yet but no one says they are going to do anything. I know the history and until the Yankees do not make the playoffs there will be those who say "they do it every year." Trouble with that is at some point it will come to an end. That end is now. The team stinks.

Here is what Hank Steinbrenner had to say:

“We’ve got to forget about all the injuries and start playing our butts off. The bottom line is that the team is not playing the way it is capable of playing. These players are being paid a lot of money and they had better decide for themselves to earn that money.”

“This is going to get turned around. If it’s not turned around this year, then it will be turned around next year, by force if we have to.”

I don't know what that means ("by force") but obviously this season has been extremely disappointing so far. There is no life in this team, they have not been patient at the plate, and they are now 4.5 games behind the Rays on May 14. It's sad.

DONE on May 2

As predicted in my March 27th post, the Yankees are in for a very long season. At 2 games under .500 (14-16) today the Yankees are not too far away from the Division leaders (Rays/Red Sox) but things are not looking good.

If there is a bright side, it is this. The Yankees have not pitched well at all, they have gotten nothing out of Hughes or Kennedy, the offense has been asleep and they still are only 2 games under .500. To be fair, they were 21-29 last year and proclaimed "done" by many experts. We all know what happened but to climb out of that hole was a daunting task. They had to be the best team in the 2nd half of the season, by far, and needed help from the Tigers who stunk for a long stretch in August.

Realistically, it won't happen again. No one is running away with anything yet but the team just looks very poor. Posada will be out for an extended period of time which obviously hurts the offense but more importantly - it hurts the young pitchers. Now that won't matter as Hughes is out until at least July and Kennedy will soon be out of the rotation. Arod is hurt and only has 11 RBIs so far. At this time last year he had 30! No one on the team hits for power (Melky leads the team with 5 HR). Giambi has power but he stinks. In my opinion he is one of the worst hitters (for average) in baseball and will continue to be that way all year. Cano will hit but he has been brutal so far and looks clueless at the plate.

The worst part about this is the fact that Hughes (0 wins, ERA over 9) and Kennedy (o wins, ERA over 8) could have been packaged for Santana. What a disaster. I understand the whole "youth movement" but Cashman should be fired. Unless Hughes can be a dominant #1 within the next 3-4 years, the Yankees are fools. Imagine a rotation of Santana, Pettitte and Wang.........

Hopefully the offense wakes up and hopefully the pitchers can just be better but it does not look good right now. The Yankees are not better than the Red Sox, Indians, or Tigers. Even if they start playing better they can kiss the playoffs in 2008 goodbye. I know it's early but the Yankees are DONE.

NBA Playoffs 2008 - Predictions (Lakers)

Eastern Conference
Celtics vs. Hawks: The Celtics have been on cruise control and are excited about meaningful basketball.....Celtics in 4

Pistons vs. 76ers: Similar situation for the Pistons but the Sixers are feisty. I can see them stealing a game or 2.....Pistons in 6

Magic vs. Raptors: Dwight Howard dominated the during the first half of the season and then seemed like he didn't care so much. I look for him to really make a name for himself in this postseason.....Magic in 6

Cavs vs. Wizards: 3 years in a row for this series and prepare for similar results. The games are usually very competitive but Lebron always finds a way.....Cavs in 7

Western Conference
Lakers vs. Nuggets: I hope this series goes 7 games so I can watch Iverson vs. Kobe as much as possible. Unfortunately, the Nuggets play zero defense, the Lakers are the deepest and most complete team in the league, and of course they have the best player on the planet.....Lakers in 5

Hornets vs. Mavs: Very interesting series with Paul (who should have been the league MVP) vs. an aging star with something to prove. Kidd cannot guard Paul but the Mavs have been here before and do not want to be a part of another first round playoff exit. The Hornets had a fantastic season but lack of playoff experience will cost them.....Mavs in 6

Spurs vs. Suns: By far the best series of the first round. The Suns are better without Shaq on the floor and I still think that if they had Marion they would be true title contenders. Shaq does bring winning playoff experience and gives the Suns a swagger they did not previously have. This series comes down to who wants to win it more and the answer to that question is very obvious.....Suns in 6

Jazz vs. Rockets: The Rockets have home court advantage in this series and that is a huge factor when the Jazz are involved. Utah doesn't lose at home and are very beatable away. Deron Williams and Boozer proved themselves last year with a nice run to the Conference Finals and McGrady has yet to get out of the first round. The trend continues.....Jazz in 6

Later rounds (updated if I'm wrong about the first round or if I change my mind!):
East - 2nd Round:
Celtics over Cavs in 6
Pistons over Magic in 7
East Finals:
Celtics over Pistons in 7

West 2nd Round:
Lakers over Jazz in 6
Suns over Mavs in 5
West Finals:
Lakers over Suns in 7

NBA Finals:
Lakers over Celtics in 7
MVP = KOBE

NBA Playoffs 2008 - Awards

After arguably the greatest regular season of all time the NBA playoffs is about to commence. First of all - GOODBYE ISIAH THOMAS! Isiah almost single handedly destroyed the Knicks franchise over the past few years and it got to a point it was even funny for a Knicks fan. Absolutely disgraceful! And to top it off, Isiah felt he had to prove something so he played his first string players and won a couple of games down the stretch. Now the Knicks (23-59) have the same record as the Clippers and are 1 game ahead of the Wolves and Grizzlies in the draft lottery. Hopefully the ping pong balls fall in our favor and Derrick Rose becomes a Knick. To Isiah's credit - he and Larry Brown are now tied for the worst record in Knicks history.

Awards
League MVP:
1. Kobe will be the league MVP and is the best player in the game. Kobe continued to play this season at a very high level despite needing surgery on his pinky. He played team basketball and led the Lakers to the top seed in the ultra competitive West.
2. Chris Paul - Carried the Hornets to within one game of the Lakers for top seed in the West. Paul has remarkable numbers and could be the best 6 foot player of all time. Without him the Hornets would not even be close to the playoffs which is why he deserves the MVP. Maybe next year....
3. Lebron James - take Lebron off the Cavs and substitute a mediocre small foward. The Cavs would be one of the worst teams in the league without a doubt. Lebron also almost averaged a triple double this year. He'll also be league MVP - multiple times - in the next decade.
4. Kevin Garnett - KG changed the culture of basketball in Boston just by showing up. His contribution to the team cannot be measured by statistics; instead just look at the record. The Celtics were 50 games over .500.
Other players to mention:
5. Manu Ginobli
6. Dwight Howard
7. Paul Pierce
8. Amare Stoudemire
9. Deron Williams
10. Tracy McGrady

Coach of the Year:
1. Byron Scott
2. Rick Adelman

Rookie of the Year:
1. Al Horford (because he had an impact on the team making the playoffs)
2. Kevin Durant

6th Man:
Ginobli (not fair because he should be a starter)

Yanks Win Final Home Opener 3-2

Excellent all-around game last night from the Yankees. Wang pitched 7 strong innings and only gave up 4 real hits (plus 2 infield singles) and only 2 runs. Joba and Mo closed the game in typical fashion. Joba was not as sharp as he was last year but you cannot expect him to be brilliant every time out. He worked some deep counts and gave up a walk but still did not give up a hit and struck out 2 batters. His fastball topped off at 97 mph and his slider was not as sharp but I expect those pitches to improve as he builds arm strength.

The Yankees offense was somewhat quiet but they got some timely hits against one of the best pitchers in baseball and scored just enough to win. They only wasted 1 good scoring opportunity after Damon led off the 8th with a triple and was stranded. Arod was solid with 2 hits and an RBI, Abreu had 2 hits and Melky hit his first HR since last August. "F***ing ballpark" yelled Halladay after the HR (a solo shot down the right field line that just went over the wall to tie the game).

Melky was also solid in the field making 2 excellent back to back catches. Giambi had a good game in the field as well with a great catch to save a run and a scoop to save a bad throw by Jeter. He also was smart on the bases avoiding a tag before reaching 2nd on a ground out by Cano. Arod later scored from 3rd after Posada was intentionally walked and Matsui hit an RBI ground ball.

All in all a great effort and a good win to kick off the season.

Yankees: Prepare for a long season....

As a fan of the Knicks and 49ers it is only logical to be slightly pessimistic about my teams. The Yankees have disappointed their fans during the last few seasons and I am not enthusiastic about this year either. Last year the Yanks got off to a horrendous start and bounced back to be the best team in baseball during the 2nd half of the season. The lineup was healthy and the young pitchers did a tremendous job contributing.

This year I believe the Yankee lineup will continue to be among the best in the game. Projections:
Damon - will have a bounce back year, hit around .280 and be very active on the bases.
Jeter - same old story. Jeter will be an All Star....put him down for .300 & 125 runs.
Abreu - was very good during the 2nd half and I think that will continue.
A-rod - MVP candidate & All Star but maybe not as good as last year. He seems to be ready after a great Spring and you can put him down for 40 HR and 130 RBI.
Giambi - If healthy he can still hit for great power
Posada - Will not have as good of a year as last year. I have no idea how he hit that well and was the most consistent Yankee (along with A-Rod). Posada will be good but not great.
Matsui - I cannot stand him. I think he is breaking down and the Yankees should have traded him while his value was higher.
Cano - Will be an All Star this year and might be in the running for the batting title.
Melky - I don't like him either but he is serviceable for now. He is a good fielder but I don't like him at the plate. Melky's numbers were not bad last year but he has no power and he was awful in September. I'll give him one more year before really passing judgment.
Bench:
Duncan - love the energy and will hit for power.
- I don't care for anyone else on the bench and hopefully they will not be needed for extended periods of time.

The problem with the Yankees (like most teams) is lack of starting pitching and middle relief. Rivera is great and Joba will be fine in the 8th inning role despite a rocky Spring. Hopefully the Yankees will keep him there and groom him to take over for Rivera in 3 years. Joba could turn into an immortal if he continues his brilliance and I don't care how good he could be as a starter - he should stay in that role. Who is the Yankees MVP during their dynasty years? A: Rivera. Case closed.

Working backwards......the middle relief is disgusting to look at. For starters, the Yankees still think Kei Igawa could make the roster. He probably won't but the fact that he has not been ruled out yet speaks volumes about the crap that they currently have. According to Peter Abraham in addition to Joba and Mo it will probably be:
Farnsworth
Hawkins
Traber
Rasner
Bruney or Ohlendorf

Excited? I'm not. At least Jeff Karstens is on the DL because he stinks. Trouble is, so does Rasner and Hawkins. Traber isn't any good but he's a lefty. I won't get started on Farnsworth other than to say that if the Yanks are figuring him into their plans (in a role aside from mop-up duty) they will have big problems.

Onto the starters (in order of their projected rotation)
Wang - If you are a Yankee fan you cannot have confidence in Wang. If you do please tell me why. He was awful in the postseason, again, and he has been terrible this Spring. Hopefully he will be a pleasant surprise during the regular season but even if they do make the playoffs - who want to see Wang in game 1?
Pettitte - Always reliable when healthy but health will be a big factor this year. Andy has already missed a Spring start and will not be ready for the 2nd game of the season. The Yankees need Pettitte to give them quality innings this year.
Mussina - I thought Moose was done but he has shown in Spring that he could still pitch (against minor leaguers that is). We will see if it can carry to the regular season and he is needed. If Mussina resorts to his form from last year the Yankees are in trouble.
Hughes - looks great and will be a stud. Hopefully the Yankees don't baby him this season.
Kennedy - I'll wait to judge but hopefully he could give 5+ solid innings each start.

All in all, I think the Red Sox will win the division as will the Tigers. It will come down to the Wild Card between the Yanks and Indians and if I had to bet I would pick the Indians. The Yankees have not missed the playoffs in over a decade and they always seem to find a way. On paper it doesn't look too promising but hopefully that trend will continue.

22 IN A ROW!

An incredible run by the Houston Rockets came to a halt last night when Boston dominated the second half and beat the Rockets by 20. Previously I predicted that the Rockets without Yao would start to fall back and not make the playoffs. Currently, they probably will make the postseason but I would not be surprised if they fell to the 6th spot. They got blown out in the second half last night after being tied at halftime and tonight they were tied with the Hornets going into the 4th quarter before losing by 21. The schedule continues to be rough with 2 road games on consecutive nights at Golden State and Phoenix. Next week they play the Kings at home and despite the record, the Kings are not a bad team. After several days off, the Rockets take a short trip to San Antonio to face the struggling Spurs team (who by that time will probably have righted the ship). Counting the last 2 games, its conceivable that the Rockets could have a stretch where they lose 5 of 7 games by the end of the month and if that is the case, its likely they would be in the #5 slot in the Western Conference. I hope they do fall back because they are a boring team to watch. I like McGrady and Alston but the other players are no names and they play very slowly.

On another note, I am very impressed with how Shaq is playing for the Suns (who have won 6 straight including tonight's game - they are up by 2 as I type this but I will give them a win in Seattle). Shaq has been rebounding the ball nicely and has contributed offensively. I still think Marion was a MUCH better fit but I guess we will see what intangibles Shaq brings in the playoffs.

On the injury front the Lakers are in trouble. Bynum is not coming back until the playoffs (if he comes back at all in the end) and will not have the proper time to get into game shape. More importantly Gasol is out for a few games with an ankle injury and that might really hurt them for the short term with regard to seeding. I agree with Charles Barkley who says that any team seeded 5-8 has no chance to get to the finals. I would give the Suns, Lakers, Spurs and Jazz chances to get to the finals but if either of those teams have to win 3 straight series on the road, those chances will significantly decrease.

The Eastern Conference will be decided in Game 7 of the Detroit at Boston series. Boston will be tired from a long tough series with Lebron but I still think they will have enough for 1 reason: KG wants it more than Rasheed.

Basketball Roundup

In all my years watching the NBA this is has been one of the most exciting seasons. The Knicks are a joke and it really ruined the early part of the season for me. However, as the All Star break has come and gone, the Western Conference race has rejuvenated me and I am as into the regular season this year more so than ever in the past.

At this time the Spurs won tonight and the Lakers lost last night so I believe the Spurs have a 1 game lead for the top seed in the West. But before I get to the top seeds I will start with some other teams out West. I have been very impressed with the Blazers this year but they are about a year or two away from being a factor in the West. The Rockets are cruising but the injury to Yao will really crush them. I know they have an easy schedule now and are a few games ahead of the Nuggets but I feel that loss will cause them to miss the playoffs. Here is how I see the Western Conference finishing up:

8. Nuggets: If the Rockets get into the playoffs it will be because the Nuggets self destruct. This team is extremely talented with AI and Carmelo but the team does not play defense. You can't trust them in the 4th quarter and can only win by outscoring opponents. With no defense they have no chance to win a playoff series.

7. Warriors: I like the Warriors but they also play very little defense. They had a great run last year and played fantastic at home. The trouble is they do not sneak up on anyone anymore and I don't think they will get out of the first round either although if they can somehow get up to the 6th spot and draw the Suns they might have a chance.

6. Mavericks: I do not like the Mavs and think the Jason Kidd trade will hurt them down the stretch. Kidd is still a great player, a leader and has playoff experience. Devin Harris is not as good a player but he has playoff experience and he can defend the quicker guards in the West. Kidd cannot guard Nash, Paul, Deron Williams, Baron Davis, or Tony Parker. Kidd is older, he is not as quick, and he cannot shoot. He can run the fast break but the team is too slow around him and they don't have anyone like Richard Jefferson or Vince Carter to finish at the basket. I think this team has taken a step backwards after their first round collapse last year and will not make it out of the first round once again.

5. Hornets: I have not watched the Hornets too often but after watching them beat the Suns in double OT and after they handed it to the Jazz I will try to watch them more often. Paul is one of the most exciting players in the league and will get serious consideration for league MVP. He does everything on the court and is a great competitor. I don't think the Hornets have enough experience to go far in the playoffs but a matchup with the Jazz will be a great one.

4. Jazz: The Jazz will go as far as PG Deron Williams can take them. DW had 19 assists tonight (granted it was against Memphis) and continues to improve. I have not been so impressed with the rest of the team and I think a matchup with New Orleans will be very tough. The Jazz are hard to figure as they get beat by poor teams but they are strong against playoff teams.

3. Suns: Getting Shaq completely destroyed this team. Shaq is old and is good for maybe 25-30 minutes per game while going for around 12 points and 8 boards a game. I agree Marion had to go if he was unhappy (and he would have left after the year) but there is no denying that the Suns on the court are much better with him than Shaq. Shaq clogs the middle of the floor and make it more difficult for Nash to work with Amare. They do not spread the floor as much and they are not as quick on the fast break. Marion was also a great defender for them. Not to say Shaq can't help guard guys like Duncan but Duncan can take him out of the paint and is too good for Shaq. I would rather have Amare on him. Also, there are many quick guards/small forwards that Marion could guard well like Kobe, Carmelo, Dirk, and Ginobli. I think the Suns will figure it out by the time the Playoffs roll around and Nash and Amare are too good for them to not be at least a 3 seed. I think the Suns will get out of the first round but I don't think they can get past the Spurs or Lakers.

2. Lakers: What a difference Pau Gasol makes. As soon as he got to LA the Lakers took off. They are a different team now. Kobe does not have to take on the entire scoring load and when Bynum comes back the Lakers front line will average about 7 feet tall per player. They have in my opinion the best bench in the NBA as well. Farmar has really emerged as a solid PG and they have some guys who can come off the bench and play quality hustle minutes. As long as Kobe can continue to play with the bad pinkie this team has a great chance of winning the championship.

1. Spurs: It's amazing that the Spurs are the top seed in the West. Parker missed a couple of weeks and the Spurs didn't miss a beat. Mostly because Ginobli (a good player) has played out of his mind this season and Duncan has been very consistent. The Spurs coast during the regular season but they continue to win. With home field advantage and the team remaining healthy it will be very hard to top this team but I think this year the Lakers have a great chance.

As for the Eastern Conference only 4 teams even deserve mention: The Magic are good and Howard is a beast but they are not good enough to beat the Celtics in the 2nd round. Ultimately the Celtics will be in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Cavs or Pistons. When the Cavs traded for Ben Wallace Wally, and Delonte West I thought they had a chance to really make noise in the East. After watching them lose to the Bucks this week I realized their offense is still terrible and it will be up to Lebron to carry them just like he did last year. If Lebron can score 40 a game in the playoffs and the team can make a few plays around him they can beat Detroit again. Detroit has been very impressive lately but I think the winner of the Pistons-Cavs series will be drained after a long series and not have enough to beat the Celtics.

Ultimately, if I had to pick a team right now I would go with the best player in the NBA, the deepest bench and great talent. I love the Lakers and it would be great to see Kobe vs. Garnett (or Kobe vs. Lebron) in the NBA Finals. I'm bored of the Spurs and it's time for Kobe to step up in the playoffs the way Jordan did a decade ago.

One thing is for sure; this season has the potential to have the greatest regular season finish and the most exciting playoffs in a very long time.

19 and NO: Defense Wins Championships

Before anything else, I think one of the worst things about sports is the phony fan. I'm not even talking about the corporate guys who have all the money in the world to go to these games....I'm talking about the random guy who watches maybe 3-5 full games all year, does not know when the team is playing night games, and barely knows any of the players on the team. The same guy who now celebrates what a wonderful season his team has. The same guy who knows nothing about the Patriots other than what people have told him and now claims - "I told you they would win." A real Giants fan is at the parade today. If he can't be there, at least watch it on TV or listen to the coverage on the radio. If you are a Giants fan and you did not have a job that 100% prevented you from being at the parade and you are not ill (or caring for someone who is) and you are not at the parade or the Meadowlands later today - then you are not a real fan and I don't want to hear from you. You are a phony, a disgrace to all true fans and you should keep your mouth shut!

Onto the game..........I'm still not over the shocking ending on Sunday night. There are no excuses to be made; the Giants defensive line took it to the Patriots all game and hit Brady almost 20 times including 5 sacks. Brady hasn't had that much pressure combined all year. Sure he takes a sack here and there but ht is never consistently under pressure. Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnoulo, therefore, is without a doubt the MVP of this game.

Aside from their last drive of the game I was very surprised with the approach that the Patriots took offensively. They played without emotion and it seemed like it was a practice walk through. I understand that Brady was under pressure but why not run some mis-direction? Why not throw more screen passes? Why not run the ball more even if it was not so effective? And where was the aggressiveness that marked the Pats offense this season? All year long the Patriots attacked, attacked and attacked some more. On 3rd and 1 there was no chance the Pats were running. They were throwing for 10 yards. If they didn't pick up a first down they would go for that 1 yard on 4th down. That did not happen on Sunday night. The Patriots looked old, they looked tired, they were too slow, and they showed no heart! The Giants were hungry, they played loose, they were quick to the ball, and they showed unbelievable resolve despite the fact that their offense stunk until the the 4th quarter.

Interestingly enough, all game long I felt that the Patriots were one score away from going up by two scores and really deflating the Giants spirit. I felt that a 14-3 lead would have been insurmountable for the Giants and the momentum would carry the Patriots to their normal level of play. Instead the game remained close and the Giants gained confidence just as they did during the last few weeks.

All in all, the Patriots played like crap and the Giants got the little bit of luck they needed to pull off one of the biggest upsets in sports history. I still remember not believing my eyes on 3rd and 5 when Manning escaped several Patriots defenders holding his jersey which would have been a 5-7 yard loss. Who know what could happen on 4th and 10 or longer? I still cannot believe that Tyree made a catch with one hand trapping the ball between the hand and helmet while Rodney Harrison (who is so old its scary) tried to pry his hands apart. This all happened while Tyree was falling down and bending backwards in a way that the body should not bend. It was the greatest catch I have ever seen in a football game considering the magnitude. A few plays earlier Asante Samuel let an interception go through his hands. Eli would have been the goat at that point. Instead his receivers made plays for him and he is named MVP. What a joke. Give the MVP to Tuck (2 sacks, 1 forced fumble) to represent what the defensive line did.

Anyway, serves Boston right.....a bunch of cocky fans who have actually turned into what the Yankee fan was a few years ago. I admit it - I expect the Yankees to win a championship every year and I took it for granted 7 years ago. Going undefeated is something that if this team could not accomplish - NO ONE WILL! The Giants are not the best team in football - they got hot at the right time, they played well enough NOT TO LOSE vs. Dallas and Green Bay and got lucky when the Patriots skipped the game to attend their Super Bowl victory party (or to sign books about going 19-0).

Once again to all fake Giant fans who have jumped onto the bandwagon: You are a disgrace to sports and you don't deserve to celebrate.

SUPER BOWL XLII: NY GIANTS VS. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

I cannot remember the last time I was less excited about a Super Bowl. First of all I should mention that I hate the Giants. I don’t have a problem with the Pats but who wants to see Boston win every “real” championship? Bottom line – I am not biased towards either team and I can actually go through this game with an open mind. We know one thing for sure – the Patriots will win this game. I am 100% certain of that so that is not the question here. The question is whether or not the game will be close and whether the Giants can cover the 12 point spread.

If I had to make a choice right now without thinking I would probably take the Giants with the points simply because the Patriots have not covered a spread in several weeks and the Giants have played extremely well as of late. With further analysis let me think in writing what the better bet would be.

Before we get to some question marks there are a few obvious aspects to this game:

1. Coaches: Belichick is the best coach in the league and one of the best of all time. Give him two weeks to prepare for a game, especially one against a team he has recently seen and its trouble his opponent. Coughlin has developed a relationship with his players and that has helped a great deal. The Patriots have a unique ability to make in-game adjustments so if things are not going to perfection they will be changed. The obvious edge goes to the Patriots.

2. Offensively, the Patriots will score a minimum of 31 points. They had 2 weeks to rest up (Brady’s ankle is much better now) and they are going back to warm weather. Cold/wind will not be a factor and that will allow them to throw the ball downfield to Moss and use 4 and 5 receiver sets to spread the field. The Giants have a young secondary and even if they can drop 7 guys to cover 4 or 5, I still do not see them keeping up with the many Patriots weapons. If the Pats get 11 possessions I would say they score on at least 5 or 6 of them. A range of 34-41 points is what I expect.

For the game to be close the Giants have to pretty much play a perfect game. Here are the questions that the Giants have to answer during the game:

1A. Can they rush Brady with 4 guys and actually get to him? Can they sack him, knock him down, make him rush his throws and make him move around in the pocket? In Week 17 they sacked Brady only one time and they did not do enough to distract him. This won’t be easy as Brady is rarely under pressure due to excellent protection from his offensive line as well as his ability to slide in the pocket. He is not easily distracted and has as much poise during big games than anyone in the history of the game.

1B. Can the Giants’ secondary keep Moss in front of them? In their last meeting Brady and Moss were each looking to break records on a deep pass down the sideline. Brady overthrew Moss on their first attempt. Almost as if to say the Giants have no chance of stopping it, they ran the exact same play immediately and it worked to perfection. Moss got behind the defense and the results were two new records. The secondary must take Moss out of the game like the Chargers and Jaguars did. Let Welker catch 8 yards slants and give Faulk the dump off pass. If the Giants could take Moss out of the game it will force the Patriots to be more methodical. Not to say the Patriots cannot play this way because they certainly can but the long touchdown pass or long 3^rd down conversion is deflating for a defense.

2. Can the Giants score touchdowns rather than field goals? The Jaguars were able to move the ball against the Patriots but they could not score enough touchdowns. The Chargers played a very strong game two weeks and were able to get the ball inside the red zone several times but they simply could not get into the end zone. That game may have had a different outcome if they had been able to finish the drives. The Giants have to take advantage of all scoring opportunities with 7 points if they want to be in the game.

3. Can the Giants play a perfect game? First of all the Giants cannot turn the ball over at all this game. Secondly, one interesting point with regard to the previous paragraph is that in order to score touchdowns continuously, a team has to be aggressive. This means going for 4^th down conversions when manageable, not being conservative with play-calling, and taking chances down the field. The question is will the Giants be able to play well in this manner? In their previous 3 playoff games this has not been the Giants’ style. They have been very conservative (except for the drive prior to halftime vs. Dallas) and have managed the games very carefully. In each of those games they did enough not to lose while their opponents lost the games. Playing a conservative style of football against an explosive team will not give you a chance to win – ask the Jaguars. The Giants were very aggressive in Week 17 and put themselves in position for an upset. Even though this style of play might lead to more mistakes, the Giants have no choice but to try it. Eli threw one interception late in the game and the Patriots took advantage.

4. Can the Giants dominate the Special Teams game? The Giants have done a great job returning kickoffs and punts and the Patriots have not done a great job covering kicks. I would assume Belichick addressed this and the Patriots will not give up a big play. From another angle, if Lawrence Tynes is called upon he has to come through 100% of the time. No excuses this week.

Whenever we try to make a case for an underdog, especially one that is really given no chance to win the first thing that is discussed is can they play the perfect game. If the Giants commit foolish penalties, turn the ball over, or miss scoring/defensive opportunities they will get blown out. But even if they do play a perfect game what happens if the Patriots played a perfect game as well? Realistically the Patriots have played several “perfect” games this season and are much more likely to have this type of game with two weeks rest and warm weather. The Patriots are so much more talented on both sides of the ball and if they play the way they are capable it doesn’t matter who lines up for the Giants or how well they execute.

If we follow the script of Week 17, the Giants came out aggressive; they put up points and took a nice lead. In order to win that game they needed to continue to play great for 60 minutes. They played great for 45 minutes and that was not enough. As soon as Manning threw an interception the game was over. I can see the Giants playing well for a portion of this game but I cannot see them match the perfection of the 2007 Patriots for 60 minutes. I understand the Patriots have given up points this year but that is because most of their games have been out of control. When they need to be, the Patriots defense is still very good. They will not give up a lot of big plays and they are extremely disciplined. Eli Manning will have to play better than he did in Week 17 to keep the Giants close. In that game he completed better than 67% of his passes for over 250 yards and 4 touchdowns. The one interception though killed them. There is no way Eli can match that performance.

The Patriots have the edge in every aspect of this game and the results will show. One thing we learned about Eli in this postseason is that when he doesn’t force throws he can be effective. He can manage a game and lead a drive at critical times in the game. He is not a machine like his brother or like Tom Brady. Those guys are supernatural with their abilities and Brady has unbelievable talent around him. The Patriots have been as close to perfect as you can get this year (I still say they should have lost to Baltimore) and there is no good reason to think the Giants can stop them. I understand that no one gave the Giants a chance to win in Dallas and certainly in the frigid Green Bay. This is not Dallas or Green Bay. New England is a machine of a football team, they are the best team I have seen in about 18 years of watching football. I’ve watched the tapes of games in the olden days and while it would be unfair to compare this team to teams in the 70’s, 80’s and even early 90’s because the game has dramatically changed, this Patriots team has dominated this season more than any other team has dominated any season in basically any sport. The Patriots will win this game and they will make history. By the time the 4^th quarter rolls around the Giants will just appreciate getting to the Super Bowl.

I’ve been going with the Patriots all season long and despite the fact that they have not covered in a few weeks, this game will be different. They will not come out and take the Giants for granted like Dallas did. Brady won’t force crazy throws like Favre did. There will be analysts who try to make a case for the Giants to win or even keep the game close but that is only because it is part of their job. The Patriots will execute to perfection and even if the Giants can match the intensity and play their best game of the year, it will not be enough.

PATRIOTS 41 – GIANTS 20

NFL Championship Sunday

A bittersweet Sunday coming up as this is the last real Sunday of football for a long time. The Super Bowl is great but it caters more towards the casual fan than it does the die hard one. Just so we get it out of the way, everyone knows the Patriots are winning the Super Bowl so the drama of them going undefeated is basically over. Boston has another championship and in June they will go for the trifecta with the Celtics. The drama this week is whether Favre can make it back to the Super Bowl with a team that was 70-1 to win it all at the onset of the season. The Packers were a double digit favorite when they lost to Denver 10 years ago. Despite the fact they will be double digit underdogs this time (if they win this week) I think they will have a chance to at least be competitive and make the game interesting.

Patriots -13.5 vs. Chargers: As fan rooting very hard against the Patriots, I feel cheated by the fact that the Colts are not in this game. I’ve been saying for weeks that if the weather broke right, Indy would have a real shot to win in Foxboro. Well the weather is just what the Colts would have wanted it to be: WINDY! The cold is not a problem. Yes it might be harder to hold onto the ball but both teams have to deal with that. The Patriots are obviously a passing team and have big play capabilities. The wind will at least minimally disrupt what they are trying to do and they might have to be more conservative throwing the ball down field. I thought that in this weather the Colts would be the more physical team and control the clock to minimize the Patriots possessions. The Chargers, however, will not be able to control the clock and as a result the Patriots will have plenty of opportunities to put the ball in the end zone.

If the Chargers want to even be in this game they have to play perfectly in every phase and just hope that Brady doesn’t have a performance that resembles what he did last week (completing 26-28 passes). They will have to blitz Brady and take their chances playing man coverage because Brady dominates zone defenses. Offensively, they must run the ball and control clock, take care of the ball, and score touchdowns. Field goals against the Patriots don’t work. They will have to go for 4^th down conversions when manageable and keep the Patriots off the field. Special teams will also have to be great. As much as I want the Chargers to win outright, it will be nearly impossible given the conditions and the injuries to play the perfect game. Rivers will play but he is hurting. He has played great the last few games and there should be no pressure now that he is not expected to win. Tomlinson and Gates will play but might be limited. Chambers, Turner, Jackson and Sproles will have to really carry the load and I think that will be too much to ask for.

In the end the Patriots have the experience, they are used to the cold and wind, and the Chargers are just too banged up. It would take a miracle for the Chargers to win and I don’t even think this game will be close. Patriots 31 – Chargers 10.

Packers -7 vs. Giants: I picked the Giants to cover last week but did not think they would win the game. The Giants defense was impressive and I was impressed with the Giants’ final drive of the first half. More importantly I was not impressed with the Cowboys. Apparently Romo re-injured his thumb on the second play of the game and was awful throughout. The offensive line was terrible between allowing the Giants to pressure Romo and of course all the penalties. It looked as if this team was playing preseason football and were not prepared to play. That is on the coaching staff. You cannot take your foot off the petal come playoff time. Its one thing to practice lightly but to give a week off to all the players and allow them to take their minds off football is just stupid. The center could not even snap the ball to Romo in the 4^th quarter. The Cowboys had their chances because the Giants offense stinks and only mustered 57 yards of total offense in the 2^nd half. Wade Phillips was right: the better team lost the game. Conclusion: The Giants did not win the game, the Cowboys lost it.On the flip side, the Packers dominated the Seahawks. After fumbling twice in his first three touches, Ryan Grant was amazing. Favre set the tempo by driving the Packers downfield and cutting the score to 14-7 and then Grant took over. The Packers defense only allowed 6 points after the 7 minute mark of the first quarter and their offense kept the pace up. As the snow fell and the weather worsened it seemed as if the Seahawks quit and the Packers were feeding off of it. The weather will be freezing again this week and I feel like the Packers again will relish the opportunity.

As the weather affects both teams (probably the Giants more so) the bottom line is execution and performance. Everyone looks at how good Grant has turned out and of course how good Favre has been this year. The defense, however, might be the stronger of the two units. They have two lock down physical corners, great speed at linebacker and they can get after the quarterback with their D-line. Their defense is why I think they would have a chance to slow down the Patriots and be in that game (if it happened).

For the Giants to have a chance to win they will have to run the ball efficiently, control the clock, and play great defense. They will have to force Favre to rush throws and try to create turnovers. The Giants will not score a lot of points and will have to keep the Packers in the teens if they want a chance to win. Ultimately, their defense is banged up and they are running out of healthy guys in the secondary. Ross will play but I doubt he will be able to go all game. R. W. McQuarters gives energy but he stinks. I think Favre will be able to take advantage of the Giants weaknesses and that will open up opportunities in the running game. Favre loves this weather and his team will follow him. As the game wears on the Packers will get stronger and the Giants will want to go home. I think this game will be close early (as most Packers games are) but the Packers will score more than enough points to force the Giants out of their game plan in the second half en route to the Super Bowl. Packers 27 – Giants 13

*Prediction: If Favre wins this game he announces that the Super Bowl will be his last game before retirement (but then he will change his mind in the off season when his family and friends convince him to go one more year).

NFL PLAYOFFS - DIVISIONAL ROUND

Going back as far as I can remember, there has not been a football weekend with a better schedule of games. Last week featured 4 games, 8 quarterbacks and 9 interceptions. This week we get Manning (the good one), Brady, and Favre and that should lead to much better performances. Every match-up has its own excitement aside from the fact that it’s the second round of the playoffs.

Seahawks +7.5 @ Packers: The Packers have been pretty consistent all year round (with the exception of playing the Bears) on both sides of the ball. Their defense is a little banged up but they can rush the quarterback and they have a solid secondary. Seattle has been a different team on the road than they have been at home. Last week they looked dominant defensively throughout most of the game and put great pressure on Todd Collins (especially Patrick Kerney). Favre will do a better job against the pressure but might go through a lapse where he makes some wild throws. Green Bay also has a running game with Ryan Grant and the Seahawks’ running game has been nonexistent this year. The running attack might be very important as there might be some snow at game time. This game will come down to whether or not Hasselbeck, who has numerous minor injuries, can match Favre’s production. Ultimately, this could be Favre’s last game at Lambeau Field (although says he wants to play next year) and it wouldn’t be a fitting end for him to lose this game. Holmgren is another advantage over Mike McCarthy but the Packers are a more complete team and they will move on to a rematch with Dallas next week. Packers 23 – Seahawks 17

Patriots -13.5 vs. Jaguars: Before the Jaguars held off the Steelers I would have said that this game would be much closer. I would have even given the Jaguars a fighting chance to win the game outright. The Jaguars are a physical team that can control the clock by running the ball. Their defense is good and I think that they will play the Patriots similar to the way the Ravens did. After last week’s performance in the second half I take that all back. The Jaguars have no chance to win this game and it won’t be close. The Patriots are on a mission – to win and to accumulate records. They are rested and healthy and will score plenty of points. If the Jaguars fall behind early will they change their game plan and throw more? Jack Del Rio did not show much confidence in Garrard last week as he only attempted 21 passes (completing 9 and throwing 2 picks with 1 TD). Garrard will have to run the offense efficiently, manage the clock, keep his offense on the field, and more importantly – score touchdowns. The Patriots will score early and I don’t think the Jaguars can keep up. Patriots 34 – Jaguars 17

Colts -9 vs. Chargers: Last week vs. the Titans the Chargers looked like two different teams. The first half was disgraceful. They could not move the ball through the air or ground and were shutout. The defense was solid throughout the game and it kept them in it until their offense was able to get on track in the 2^nd half. Philip Rivers, surprisingly, was very good in that half and he had to be. Tomlinson averaged 2 yards per carry and was a non factor until the last drive of the game. Tomlinson will have to be much more of a factor this week especially since Gates is hurt and might not play. Rivers needed that game for his confidence but this week he will face a much better secondary with Bob Sanders in it than last week. Going back to mid-November when the Chargers beat the Colts……that game was also a tale of two halves. The Colts were awful in the first half and went down 23-0. In the second half the Colts dominated and outscored the Chargers 21-0 before Vinatieri missed a potential game winning 29 yard FG with less than 2 minutes to go. Manning had his worst game ever throwing 6 interceptions but in his defense, he was playing without Harrison, Clark, Gonzalez and other key personnel. Manning knows what happened in that game and he won’t let it happen again. Clark is playing and even if Harrison is not back to being himself, Manning has gotten familiar with his secondary targets and has had time to work with them over the last few weeks. The Colts have had some trouble opposing teams who use a 3-4 defense but the second half of the previous match-up is likely how this game will go. The Colts don’t care about blowing teams out like the Patriots do so this game might have a final score that is closer than the game actually goes. The Colts will run the ball with Addai, control the clock and control the game. Colts 31 – Chargers 20

Giants +7.5 @ Cowboys: This is the hardest game of the week to pick because of Tony Romo’s romantic life and T.O.’s ankle. Tony Romo (and other Cowboy players) spent a week in Mexico with his girlfriend and despite having the week off, I’m sure the coaching staff and fans in Dallas would not expect the starting quarterback to be vacationing in Mexico. In a few weeks Romo will have plenty of time to unwind and vacation. Now is the time for preparation. Romo and the Cowboys did not end the season on a good note. They tried to put together a few nice drives in the first half vs. the Redskins in Week 17 but could not get going. They ran for 1 yard the entire game and Romo was not on target. On a positive note, Dallas came out of their bye week this year (off several poor performances) by playing very well. The Giants have been clicking the last few weeks and Manning has made fewer mistakes. Manning will have to play well again for the Giants to have a chance. The Cowboys need to come out and strike early to get back on track and keep their confidence up. The other X-factor is Owens’ injury. He practiced on Thursday and I have no doubt he will play. The only question will be how effective he can be. When he played in the Super Bowl with the Eagles he came back from injury and played great. I think he will be a factor and play well. The Cowboys won both of their previous match-ups with Dallas by double digits and if they are clicking this game could go the same way. Because of the way the Giants are playing lately I will pick them to keep the game close but would not be surprised if they lost big. I would be surprised if they won. Cowboys 27 – Giants 21.