Thursday, November 15, 2007

A-Rod Back?

The shocking news that officially broke yesterday was that Alex Rodriguez apparently realized that he had made a mistake by opting out of his contract and was now “crawling back” to the Yankees. Since Arod began his career he has been on a leash pulled by agent Scott Boras. While Boras is a jerk, he does a good job getting his clients the most money possible and advises them accordingly. Arod is not a child and is free to do as he pleases. Therefore, opting out during Game 4 of the World Series was Arod’s fault even if Boras advised him to do so.

The Yankees have been smart about handling the situation from day 1. By apparently not getting involved with the bidding, there are only a handful of teams who can afford Arod’s services and fewer who would actually pay him. The Mets have no room for him, the Red Sox fans don’t want him, The Cubs don’t have an owner to pay him (team is being sold), the Giants just got rid of Bonds because they did not want to spend so much money on one player, and the Angels don’t have any players making more then $14 million. I thought he would end up going to the Angels for well under $300 million and probably not for 10 years.

By taking themselves out of the market, the Yankees knew that if all else failed they would have a chance to bring Arod back at a “discount” price. The rumor now is 10 years at about $275 million. While that is still a ridiculous contract, it is much less than the $350 million Boras wanted Arod to get. I believe the Yankees need a right-handed power bat and Arod is the best player in the game. Despite his lack of post-season success, the Yankees are certainly better with him then without him.

For the next few years the Yankees also have 4 young pitchers who are making next to nothing (in baseball terms). Wang is arbitration eligible soon and will get paid but Chamberlain, Hughes and Kennedy will combine to make barely over $1 million for each of the next 3 years. Giambi is coming off the books next year and Roger Clemens’ days in NY are over. I still would not be surprised to see the Yankees go after Johan Santana for $25 million per year for 6 years in the near future. The only issue I have with Arod’s contract is the length. Ten years is a very long time for an athlete, especially one who is 32 and will be 42 when the contract is up. Anything can happen in that time. Along with age and possible injuries, players slow down and their abilities diminish. Arod could go down as the best player ever while breaking both the home run and hits records. He could continue to put up tremendous numbers but never win the big series. Or he could tail off in his mid to late 30’s and this contract will look more foolish than ever.

The alternative to resigning Arod is to trade young players to fill a hole (3rd base and right handed power) – something that is not prudent for the Yankees to do. If the contract does not work out, the Yankees can afford the mistake like they afforded their many other mistakes in recent years (Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, Kevin Brown, Jason Giambi, Kei Igawa, Jarrett Wright, Javier Vazquez, etc.). Bottom line is this: The Yankees are much better with Arod playing 3rd base this season then without and as much as Arod is a selfish jerk, almost every Yankees fan I know would sign him if they were in the Steinbrenner’s position.