Last week was a strange week in the NFL. Nine road teams won and only three of those nine teams were favored in the game. The Chargers were lucky to beat the Colts despite being completely outplayed. The Colts gave up a kickoff and a punt returned for a TD and still should have won until Adam Vinatieri missed a 29 yard FG attempt. In the injury department, the Colts lost Dwight Freeney for the season with a foot injury and the Vikings lost Adrian Peterson for maybe a month. In the Vikings game, the Packers looked like the 1997 team winning 34-0. On top of that, the now 1-8 Rams put up 37 points and beat the Saints who are competing for the NFC South division title.
Week 11 features a lot of bad games including six that have teams favored by 9+ points. Bad games make it difficult to pick against the spread especially when all of those teams should win easily. The only really interesting game on the board is the Giants at the Lions. Some people say that Buffalo looks good and could be competitive at home on Sunday night vs. the Patriots. I say those people are just trying to find a game where the Patriots can lose. I’ll talk more about that in the picks but the Patriots are so much better than the Bills and are coming off of a bye week. This game won’t be close. Onto the picks with the descriptions below (with the updated lines on Sunday if they change):
Jaguars -3
*Browns -2.5
Giants -2.5
*Saints +1.5
*Packers -9.5
Colts -14.5
Raiders +5
Dolphins +10
*Bucs -3
Bengals -3
*Steelers -9.5
Redskins +10.5
*Rams -3
Bears +5.5
Patriots -16
Titans +2
*Best Bets (The 49ers are out of it and I can now bet against them)
Jaguars -3 vs. Chargers: This game should be similar to the game the Chargers played two weeks ago at
Minnesota.
The Chargers played a more physical team, could not run the ball, and couldn’t stop the run.
The Jaguars are a more physical team and certainly much better than the Vikings.
(Adrian Peterson is obviously not going to be there so don’t expect 296 rushing yards but I would not be surprised to see the Jaguars run for close to 200 yards son Sunday.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars are coming off of a very impressive win at
Tennessee last week where they were able to rush for 166 yards.
David Garrard practiced with the first team this week and is expected to start on Sunday.
Look for the 6-3 Jaguars to win this week and next before a division showdown at
Indianapolis in two weeks.
Browns -2.5 @ Ravens: Last week I was curious to see who would win the match-up between the Ravens offense and the Bengals defense.
The Bengals give up about 28 points per game and the Ravens scored only 7 at home.
This week the Ravens will have another opportunity against the Browns defense (also among the worst in the league) with Kyle Boller starting.
The difference in this game is the Browns offense.
Despite struggling in the 2
nd half vs.
Pittsburgh, the Browns offense is good and can put up points (They beat the Ravens 27-13 in Week 4).
I don’t think the Ravens will be able to keep up in this game either.
Giants -2.5 @ Lions: This is the game of the week as two 6-3 teams fight for the two wild card spots.
These two teams are also very evenly matched with each having solid offenses and mediocre defenses.
Each team can rush the quarterback but the Giants do a better job blocking and Jon Kitna has been sacked a league leading 37 times (with 11 fumbles).
In addition, each team is weak in the secondary and gives up big plays.
The Giants and Lions are both coming off of double digit losses last Sunday.
The Lions loss was extremely disappointing as they had a good chance to improve to 7-2.
Instead they fell to a poor Cardinals team and still have to face the Giants, the Packers twice, the Chargers, and the Cowboys.
The Giants fell to a far superior Cowboys team and look to get back on track towards the 5
th seed in the playoffs.
Expect a high scoring game (over/under is 47.5) and since the Giants are the better team they get the win.
Saints +1 @ Texans: I could certainly make a case for Houston this week: they are home, they are coming off of a bye, they are getting their top two offensive weapons (Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub) back from injury, and they are playing against a team that just lost to the 0-8 Rams.
With that being said, I love the Saints this week.
The Saints went down early last week and didn’t know what hit them.
Brees threw two early interceptions and was pressured all game.
The Saints, down by 27 points with 12 minutes remaining, managed to come back in the 4
th quarter by putting up 22 points.
Their offense is explosive and the Texans give up more than 25 points per game.
I think this game also has the potential to be very high scoring (over/under is 47) but the Saints desperately need this win to remain 1 game behind the Bucs for the division lead and will get it this week.
Packers -10 vs. Panthers: The Packers are very good.
Favre has played brilliant football at times late in games and would be my vote for league MVP if the season ended today.
He leads the league in passing yards and is on pace for close to 5,000 yards at age 38.
Their defense has also played extremely well giving up less than 16 points per game.
More impressive is running back Ryan Grant who has rushed for 100 yards in two of the last three games including last week against a very good Vikings run defense.
The Panthers are still in the hunt for the division but that will not continue.
At 4-5, the Panthers have lost three straight since their bye week and have not announced who will play quarterback this week.
The spread is high but the Packers have proven that they can beat up on inferior teams.
Colts -14.5 vs. Chiefs:
If the spread of this game was below 10 it would be my lock of the week.
The Colts are banged up in multiple areas and they just lost Freeney to a season ending foot injury.
The positive news is their next two games are against the Chiefs and Falcons – two games they should win easily as long as Peyton Manning is on the field.
The Colts return home from a game where Manning played the worst first half of his career, and Vinatieri, one of the most consistent and clutch kickers of this era, missed a chip shot 29 yard FG attempt to win the game.
The Chiefs lost at home to a bad
Denver team by 16 points, will be without Larry Johnson and will start Brodie Croyle on Sunday.
Look for the Colts to strike early and often and get back to their winning ways.
Raiders +5.5 @ Vikings: Definitely the worst game of the week.
This will be a very low scoring game (over/under is 35) as each team has a stingy defense giving up about 20 points per game and neither team can score (both teams average 17 points per game).
As mentioned above, the Vikings essentially lost their offense (and the only reason to turn on a Vikings game) when Adrian Peterson went down with a knee injury last week.
Tarvaris Jackson has been bad this year with a QB rating of 50.6 and will start on Sunday.
The Raiders will counter with Daunte Culpepper who has been mediocre this year at best but will play well in his first return to
Minnesota since they traded him after the 2005 season.
Culpepper is an emotional player and will use that to his advantage this week.
I think the team to score 17 or maybe 20 points first will win this game and with Culpepper being the X–factor, I am taking the Raiders for the straight up win.
[Side note to my reader who is a Raiders fan, a.k.a. “The Cooler” because he cannot win a bet:
Do yourself a favor, do not take the Vikings money line and don’t even watch this game.
Your team might actually win and you shouldn’t bet against your team.
This coming from a 49ers fan who bet the Rams as soon as the line came out because I thought it would go up.]
Dolphins +10 @ Eagles: The Eagles look to get back to .500 with a win over the winless Dolphins.
While I don’t think the Packers or Colts will have trouble covering big spreads, I’m not so sure the Eagles can.
The Eagles will win this game but the Dolphins’ last two losses were by a combined 6 points.
The Eagles have the ability to put up points (56 vs. the Lions) but have been disappointing all season.
Miami will turn to rookie QB John Beck to see if he can get them into the ‘wins’ column.
Miami played good defense last week vs.
Buffalo and Jesse Chatman had a nice day running the ball.
I’ll pick the Dolphins to keep this game within 10 points but I would not be surprised if the Eagles won in a blowout.
Bucs -3 @ Falcons: This is the lock of the week besides for the Rams vs. 49ers.
The Bucs are coming off of a bye week and had a chance to rest Garcia who is 38 years old.
Garcia is one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL with a 95.5 rating.
He was a winner with the 49ers, he won last year with the Eagles, and he will lead the Bucs to a postseason berth this year.
The Bucs at 5-4 are leading and should win the division as all of their 7 remaining games are against teams with losing records.
The Falcons, despite winning two straight games, are an awful team and this will be an easy game for the Bucs.
Bengals -3 vs. Cardinals: The Cardinals played a good defensive game last week vs. the high powered Lions offense and get another chance this week against a good Bengals offense.
The Bengals defense is the worst in the league and the season is lost but I think their offense still has fun as they were able to put up 24 points vs. the Ravens defense.
Furthermore, I don’t trust the Cardinals on the road.
Look for another high scoring game and I think the Bengals will put up close to 30 points and win.
Steelers -9.5 @ Jets:
The Jets are among the worst teams in the league and the Steelers have shifted into high gear over the last few weeks.
Roethlisberger was excellent last week and with his team trailing by more than 2 touchdowns in the first half, he engineered a great comeback including two go ahead TD drives in the fourth quarter.
The Jets are bad all around from coaching down to the players.
They will not be able to move the ball at all this week against a
Pittsburgh defense that is ranked first in the league in several defensive categories.
The Jets are also bad on defense and rank last in the league with only nine sacks.
Roethlisberger will have all day to throw the ball and should have a huge day in a Steelers blowout.
Redskins +10.5 @ Cowboys: The Cowboys are by far the best team in the NFC and should be favored by 10 points in every game after they beat up the Giants last week.
There defense is mediocre but their offense is explosive.
That being said, the Cowboys have a short week and might be looking forward to beating up the Jets on Thanksgiving.
The Redskins also match up nicely with
Dallas because they have a strong secondary that can be physical with the Cowboys receivers.
Like the Eagles over the Dolphins, I would not be surprised to see
Dallas come out and dominate this game at home just like they did the last two weeks when they were on the road against division teams.
However, they might take the next two weeks for granted before a Thursday night game vs.
Green Bay making this game closer than it should be.
Rams -3 @ 49ers: Lock of the week.
The Rams are bad but not as bad as their 1-8 record indicates.
On the flip side the 49ers are not as good as their 2-7 record and should not have won the game in
St. Louis earlier this season.
If not for a missed 56 yard FG attempt (missed by about a foot) the 49ers would be 1-8 and the Rams 2-7.
The Rams put up 37 points last week and while the 49ers defense is better than that of the Saints, they are on the field the most out of any team in the league.
Also, the 49ers just cannot score any points.
Side note: Alex Smith came out yesterday and blamed his poor play on his injured shoulder.
If you are injured, don’t play.
Don’t be like Phillip Rivers and make excuses for being a bust and one of the worst quarterbacks in the league.
Bears +6 @ Seahawks: Rex Grossman stinks but he played well when he took over last week (throwing a 59 yard TD pass and no interceptions) in a victory over the Raiders.
The Seahawks are coming off of a short week but look to continue their dominance at home over bad teams.
The Bears are 3-2 on the road and are looking to get back to .500.
This will be a tough game for them but they will keep it close.
Patriots -15.5 @ Bills: Before this game came out I guessed that the spread would be Patriots by 13.
The fact that the line is more than two touchdowns does not surprise me at all.
Many experts have made a case for the Bills to keep this game close but I’m not buying into it.
The fact that they won 4 straight games is nice but then you look at their opponents.
The combined record for the teams beaten by the Bills since Week 7 is 8-28.
Rookie running back Marshawn Lynch also might not be available.
The Patriots are coming off of a bye and with the exception of the Colts game they won every game by at least 17 points, including beating the Cowboys by 21 points in a highly anticipated game.
They also beat the Bills by a score of 38-7 earlier in the season.
Belichick would not allow his team to be complacent and I don’t see how the Bills are going to match up and stop the Patriots offense.
Titans +2 @ Broncos: Denver did a good job at home on Monday night a few weeks ago but that was a fluke.
The Titans will get Albert Haynesworth back this week and he will help shut down a bad Broncos running game.
The Titans on offense get Chris Brown back to compliment LenDale White and together with Vince Young, the Titans might rush for over 200 yards against the worst run defense in the league.
Look for the Titans defense to step up and for Vince Young to make just enough plays under the MNF spotlight to win the game and remain in the AFC playoff race.
