Playoff Picture: (If the season ended today: )
NFC
1. Cowboys (12-2, home-field adv.)
2. Packers (12-2, first-round bye)
3. Seahawks (9-5)
4. Buccaneers (9-5)
5. Giants (9-5)
6. Vikings (8-6)
Wild Card Weekend
Vikings at Seahawks
Giants at Buccaneers
AFC
1. Patriots (14-0, home-field adv.)
2. Colts (12-2, first-round bye)
3. Chargers (9-5)
4. Steelers (10-5)
5. Jaguars (10-4)
6. Browns (9-5)
Wild Card Weekend
Browns at Chargers
Jaguars at Steelers
Scenarios:
AFC
Pittsburgh: Can clinch AFC North title with Cleveland loss.
Pittsburgh: Can clinch playoff berth with Tennessee loss or tie.
Cleveland: Can clinch playoff berth with win or Tennessee loss or Cleveland tie and Tennessee tie.
Jacksonville: Can clinch playoff berth with win or tie or Tennessee loss or tie or Cleveland loss.
NFC
Dallas: Can clinch homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs with win and Green Bay loss.
New York Giants: Can clinch playoff berth with win or tie or Washington loss or tie or New Orleans loss or tie.
Minnesota: Can clinch playoff berth with win and New Orleans loss or tie.
Eliminated in AFC: Miami, N.Y. Jets, Kansas City, Oakland, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Houston, Buffalo, Denver. Eliminated in NFC: San Francisco, St. Louis, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Arizona, Chicago and Detroit.
The Picks:
Rams +7.5 X
Panthers +10.5
*Jaguars -13
Colts -7
Saints -3
Bills +3
*Packers -8.5
*Browns -3
*Cardinals -10
Bucs -7
*Jets +8.5
Patriots -22
Seattle (off)
Vikings -6.5
Chargers -8.5
*Best Bets
Panthers +10.5 vs. Cowboys: I would take Dallas in this game but they have disappointed in recent weeks when favored by double digits. I am wary of Tony Romo’s bad thumb and his new girlfriend. Carolina played a strong game defensively last week against Seattle and I expect them to give a strong effort in this game. Steve Smith might also be good for a long TD reception so I will take the points for Carolina at home.
Jaguars -13 vs. Raiders: The Jaguars have been playing excellent football as they come off a great road win in Pittsburgh. They are headed to the playoffs as the 5th seed and at if Pittsburgh and San Diego win out, they will go back to Pittsburgh in two weeks. The Pro Bowl rosters were announced this week and the Jaguars have ZERO representatives. Fred Taylor deserved to go over Willie Parker (who is now out for the season which means the Steelers have no running game = Roethlisberger in for a bad playoff performance = their season is over) and he will look to show voters what he can do. The Jaguars defense will shut down the Raiders offense. Look for the Jaguars in a blowout.
Lions -4.5 vs. Chiefs: When I looked at this game I immediately circled the Chiefs. The Lions have lost six straight after starting the season 6-2 and have been awful in most of their games. They have gotten blown out on the road but have been a strong team at home this year. Two weeks ago they fell just short of beating Dallas and this week they get the lowly Chiefs who have lost seven straight games. The Chiefs have mailed it in and I think the Lions will come out and put up some points.
Colts -7 vs. Texans: The Colts have had a tendency to pack it in and rest up the last two weeks of the season but with Manning on the field – which he will be this week, I can’t go against them. The defense is all banged up but still has some playmakers on the field. The Texans have shown that they can score but they cannot stop Manning, even if he is playing with third string players around him.
Saints -3 vs. Eagles: The Eagles are an odd team to follow. They gave a great performance vs. the Patriots and dominated the game defensively last week vs. Dallas. The Saints still have a chance to make the playoffs and I think they will win a close game here.
Bills +3 vs. Giants: This might be a biased pick but I cannot pick the Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin late in the season, on the road, in the cold weather against an emotional team that will really try to win. Kevin Everett is returning to the sidelines and that will really pump up the Bills who basically lost a chance to go to the playoffs with their loss last week to the Browns. This game will be a low scoring game that comes down to a field goal and I’ll look for Manning to make the mistakes he usually makes in big games. The best part about this game is that the Giants need this game to make the playoffs. If I assume that the Vikings and Saints win their next two games (they are favored in both of them) the Giants will then need to beat New England to get into the playoffs. And that is not happening. Say goodbye to Tom Coughlin!
Packers -8.5 @ Bears: The Packers still have a chance to get home field advantage throughout the playoffs, although they need mediocre teams to beat Dallas. How amazing would that be if Dallas had to play at Lambeau Field in the NFC Championship Game. The Packers have been playing close first halves lately before winning big in the 2nd half. The Bears offense will have trouble scoring and Favre will relish what might be his last start in Soldier Field.
Browns -3 @ Bengals: The last time these two teams met we said “Who is Derek Anderson”? In Week 2 the Browns won a shootout 52-45 in the coming out party for Anderson and began a great season for the Browns. As bad as Cincinnati has been this will not be an easy game for the Browns. The Bengals want to win this game and hurt Cleveland’s chances at the playoffs. If the Browns can win here they are in (49ers won’t beat them next week in Cleveland) and there is no doubt that they CAN beat Pittsburgh or San Diego in the playoffs. This game will be close but the Browns season continues.
Cardinals -10 vs. Falcons: This game means absolutely nothing. The Falcons have had terrible luck this year with Vick and now the coach quitting. Their season is over and won’t show up in Arizona. If the Cardinals don’t turn the ball over this game will be over in the first half.
Bucs -6 @ 49ers: The Niners played well offensively last week but they played against the worst defense in the league. Now they face one of the best in the league and will likely have a lot of trouble putting up any points. Jeff Garcia also returns to San Francisco and will look to have a big game. The Bucs don’t score that many points (offensively that is) but if their defense can score this game will also be over early.
Jets +8.5 @ Titans: The Jets will not win this game but it will be close. Tennessee still has a chance at the playoffs but have not played very well recently, especially offensively. The Jets played a great defensive game last week in New England (yes the weather stunk but the Patriots did not score an offensive TD all game) and will keep Vince Young in check. The Jets will also not be able to move the ball against the Titans defense. I expect a 16-10 type of game with the Titans keeping their playoff hopes alive.
Patriots -22 vs. Dolphins: The Dolphins looked like a bunch of fairies last week dancing around like they won the Super Bowl. They shouldn’t have even won the game but Stover missed a chip shot field goal in OT that left the door open. The Patriots might rest Brady and other starters if they were up by 3 TD’s but I think the Patriots defense will not give up more than 10 points the entire game. Brady will also look to throw for 4 TD passes to tie Manning so he doesn’t have to do that in the wind next week @ the Giants. Patriots 38-10.
Seahawks (off) vs. Ravens: I’m not sure why this game is off the board for now. I saw the line open at 9 points and I would give those points if it were available. The Ravens season is over. They have lost 8 games in a row including the Miami stinker and now have to travel cross country to play the Seahawks. Seattle played an awful game last week and will look to bounce back at home. The third blowout of the week…..Seahawks 27-6.
Vikings -6.5 vs. Redskins: This game has potential to be a very good close game and is the game of the week as it features two teams playing for the playoffs. Then I looked at the quarterback match-up between Tarvaris Jackson and Todd Collins. Just shows how far the league has fallen when these two guys are competing for the postseason. This game will come down to the running back battle between Adrian Peterson and Portis. Give me Peterson (and Taylor) and give me the Vikings run defense. The X-factor in this game will be which quarterback makes fewer mistakes and who can make one or two plays downfield. I’ll give the edge to Jackson who is coming off of a terrible performance and the Vikings defense will shut down Portis.
Chargers -8.5 vs. Denver: I first circled the Broncos in this game but then I remembered how much Tomlinson likes to beat his division rivals. As long as Tomlinson gets the majority of the touches and Rivers doesn’t have as many opportunities to make mistakes, the Chargers will take care of business just like they did when they beat Denver 41-3 back in October.
