Thanksgiving is here which only means 1 thing. The football season is turning the corner and heading for the home stretch. There are still 6 games left to play but teams are starting to show their true colors and can see the finish line. Thursday’s schedule only features one truly meaningful game between two contenders but all three games are extremely important for at least one of the teams involved.
Like last week, there are multiple games with double digit spreads making it difficult to pick the favorite. There was no reason to even think the Steelers would lose a “home” game to the Jets and the Colts played a very poor game offensively vs. the Chiefs. I’ve gone back and forth with the picks for tomorrow but ultimately, I’m going with the better teams (all favorites) in each game off of a short practice week and I hope that none of them look forward to Week 13 when they each have big games with a lot on the line (Colts at Jaguars is a game basically for the division. Packers at Cowboys might determine home field advantage for the NFC Championship Game).
Colts -11.5 @ Falcons: To start with the night game, I like the Colts to win this game by at least 10 points. The Falcons are going to Joey Harrington as starter and their offense is not good anyway. The Colts defense should be able to clamp down and force turnovers. As far as Manning goes, I understand he is playing with third string receivers but he still has Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne, not to mention Addai. On top of that, the Falcons play on turf which is good for the Colts offense. I think the Colts know they can go into this game, get a win, and then have some extended time off to heal and get ready for a huge game with the Jaguars. Lastly, if you think back to the last time Peyton Manning played on thanksgiving, I believe he threw for 6 touchdown passes.
Colts 27 - Falcons 10
Cowboys -14 vs. Jets: The Jets shocked me last week by playing extremely well vs. the Steelers, even if the Steelers looked like they couldn’t care less about playing. To bounce back 4 days later with a similar effort is very difficult not to mention they are playing on the road on Thanksgiving against a much better team. Dallas just won 3 straight division games and they are arguably the second best team in the NFL. They are a much better offensive team than the Steelers and Romo can move around in the pocket and make plays whether his running game is on or off. Roethlisberger is completely dependent on his running game and when it is not working well – he stinks. The Jets shut down the Steelers running attach and that’s why they won. The Cowboys love the spotlight and will win big.
Cowboys 34 – Jets 13
Packers – 3.5 @ Lions: The Lions are a dangerous home team every year on Thanksgiving but this year they are actually a good (really mediocre but in this league they are good) team. Problem for them is that the Packers are the second best team in the NFC and might even have one of the best defenses in the league. They have two shutdown corners in Woodson and Harris, they have solid linebackers and they can rush the passer. That is not a good match-up for the Lions who love to throw the ball and don’t protect the QB well. This game might be a close game if Favre makes mistakes but as the season has progressed, he has continued to build relationships with his young receivers and trusts them more and more each game. Favre is having so much fun playing and his team is rallying behind him. I’m looking forward to a great Thursday night game next week when the Packers go to Dallas.
Packers 27 – Lions 20
