Thursday, November 29, 2007

NFC Championship Game – Part I

If you’re a football fan this game is a must watch. I’ve heard all week how people don’t have the NFL Network and can’t watch the game. Give me a break. If you don’t have DirecTV then go to someone else’s house that does. There are also thousands of bars in the city or places to watch the preview of the NFC Championship Game. Both of these teams are head and shoulders better than the other NFC teams with the other potential playoff teams being the Seahawks, Bucs, Giants, and possibly the Saints, Lions, Eagles or Cardinals. None of those teams match up with the Cowboys or Packers and would lose in the playoffs by double digits. For the Championship Game, this game is for home field advantage - something that would be much more valuable to the Packers than the Cowboys.

This game is very interesting because the Cowboys are the better team but the Packers match up very well. (I also think the Packers match up extremely well against the Patriots if they were to play them in the Super Bowl but that’s not for now). Here’s why……

When the Cowboys have the ball:
Look for Dallas to attack downfield early and often. The coaching staff knows they need to get TO involved early in the game and will also get Patrick Crayton back from injury. Jason Witten is one of the top tight ends in the league and he will be used down the middle of the field. Marion Barber III is a beast and a tremendous weapon out of the back field. The Packers, however have an excellent defense. They rush the passer extremely well and have very quick linebackers. Most importantly they have two very physical and very good corners to play bump and run. (Woodson is not 100% healthy but he will play tonight.) While they certainly won’t stop the Cowboys receivers they could slow them down, take away some big plays and cause Romo to make some mistakes.

When the Packers have the ball:
Statistically Brett Favre is having his best season as a Pro and that is saying a lot. More importantly, the Packers have never started a season 10-1 and Favre to this point would be my vote for league MVP. Despite being a wild gunslinger at times throughout his career, over the past five games (all wins) he has minimized his mistakes while passing for 13 TDs and only 2 interceptions. The Cowboys can rush the quarterback but the Packers can counter that by throwing screen passes – something they do often. The Packers have a running game now as well with Ryan Grant rushing for over 100 yards in three of his last five games. Where the Packers can really take advantage is throwing the ball downfield. Dallas has recently done a better job defensively but they are still vulnerable in the secondary, especially since Roy Williams simply cannot defend the pass.

The Packers will be in this game because they have an above average defense and of course Brett Favre. I certainly would not be surprised if the Packers won but the Cowboys can score with anyone and as long as Romo doesn’t make bad decisions they will win tonight.

Cowboys 30 – Packers 24
(Packers +7, Over 51)